Fairy Branch

🔊🔊. Economic Data Update (Q2 Preliminary)
Two major indicators just released:
The U.S. economy rebounded strongly, with real GDP rising at an annualized 3.0% in Q2 2025, following a 0.5% contraction in Q1 

⭐➡️Bitcoin (BTC)
Bitcoin delivered ~30–31% gains in Q2, surging from around $76K in early April to close near $107–112K, even hitting a one-day high of ~$111.8K on May 22

⭐➡️Ethereum (ETH)
ETH surged ~36.4%, outperforming Bitcoin and gaining +0.8 pts in dominance to ≈8.8%, making it the only major altcoin to expand share among top‑7 assets

⭐➡️Solana (SOL) & Cardano (ADA)
Solana (SOL) delivered strong resilience with single-digit YTD losses (~‑6.3%), supported by version 1.18 upgrades and Firedancer validator client trials, despite cooling retail interest

⭐➡️Cardano (ADA) rallied with governance and contract adoption improvements, consolidating around ~$0.82 and eyeing near-term targets at $1.13–$1.40 and long-run ~$3.09 — driven by growing smart contract and DeFi ecosystem expansion

Daily transactions grew from ~1.2M to ~1.3M, while average gas fees halved (6.9 → 3.5 Gwei), improving usability and signaling renewed demand

⭐➡️XRP, TRON, BNB
XRP, TRON, and BNB remained among the top altcoins by market cap, with XRP showing robust user volume and positioning in global payments infrastructure
👑
Summary Table👑
👍👍🚀
sset Pattern / Setup Key Levels (Support → Resistance/Target) Sentiment Conclusion
ETH Triangle breakout $3.3K → $3.4–4K Bullish, ETF flows picked up
SOL Inverse H&S / triangle setup $140–146 → $160 breakout → $175 → $300–360 Constructive if breakout holds
XRP Falling wedge / breakout forming $2.2–2.3 → ~$3 → $4–5, extended ~$6 High-risk, high-reward bullish
BNB Consolidation under resistance $650–$660 → $665 cap → $800+ Bullish fade, depends on market rotation
$ETH
$XRP
$SOL

#FOMCMeeting

June 17–18, 2025 FOMC Meeting Highlights
1. Policy Decision
The FOMC unanimously kept its federal funds rate in the 4.25%–4.50% range—the fifth consecutive hold—maintaining a cautious stance amid lingering uncertainties 
The accompanying statement revised language: uncertainty was described as "diminished but remains elevated," removing prior language suggesting growing economic volatility 
2. Economic Projections (Summary of Economic Projections)
Core PCE inflation projections rose to 3.1% for 2025, with slight increases expected in 2026 and 2027 
GDP growth forecasts were downgraded to 1.4% for 2025, signaling softening momentum
Unemployment projections edged up modestly, while the long-run neutral rate remained at 3.0% 
The median projection implied two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2025, though internal divisions suggest some members expect no cuts 
3. Internal Dynamics & Minutes Insights
The minutes, released July 9, noted a growing split within the FOMC:
Two Trump-appointed members—Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman—favored an immediate rate cut in July,
While 17 other members expected one or two cuts in total, and 7 foresaw no cuts this year 
Markets priced in a 25% chance of a July cut, increasing the odds for cuts in September or December 
🎯 Market Reactions & Outlook
4. Current Market Sentiment
Market analysts and economists widely anticipated no rate change in July, despite mounting political pressure from former President Trump 
Morgan Stanley forecasted disappointment—predicting that inflation and labor strength would keep the Fed sidelined 
Goldman Sachs updated its forecast, expecting three rate cuts starting in September, contrary to the Fed’s more cautious median path 

5. Policy Outlook
Most views center on a September rate cut, assuming inflation data eases and employment remains stable; markets still expect ~2 cuts by year-end 
Alternative projections (EY, Nuveen) align with this, expecting additional easing in 2026 if conditions worsen 

📌 Cross-Asset Implications
U.S. Dollar: Held steady above 98.7 in the index ahead of the meeting, reflecting caution before Chair Powell’s remarks 
Gold and Commodities: Markets remained sensitive to FOMC outcomes—gold spiked above Rs 99,000 per 10 g ahead of the announcement, showing traders’ positioning for rate-related volatility 
Equities & Crypto: Risk assets showed mixed reactions. Hopes of future easing sustained broader rally sentiment, though uncertainty weighed on traders until a firmer dovish shift emerged 
🧠 What to Expect Next
Chair Powell’s tone during upcoming press events will shape perceptions. Markets are watching for explicit cues on the timing of rate cuts.

Upcoming U.S. data—especially jobs, CPI, and trade numbers—will be pivotal ahead of the September FOMC meeting 
The dot plot is expected at the next meeting, potentially signaling a shift in consensus tone.

Political pressure remains a risk; however, analysts see the Fed’s independence holding strong despite vocal criticism 
📋 Summary Table
Category Highlights
Policy Rate Held steady at 4.25%–4.50%, unanimous vote
Inflation Core PCE measure projected at 3.1% for 2025
Growth Outlook Revised down to ~1.4% GDP growth in 2025
Internal Divides Some dissent for cuts (Waller, Bowman); policy split reflected in minutes
Market Expectation Cuts likely in September, modest easing through 2025
Risks to Monitor Inflation pressures, political interference, global economic data
$BTC
$ETH
$Doge