阿七谈币
（每周一到周六比特币BTC、以太坊eth的早评策略分析，长期推荐优质个币和直播分析，不定期 分享才付米玛）关注工众号：币老登
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From on-chain data observations, the distribution of BTC holdings remains stable, with the largest holding area in the range of $93,000 to $98,000, accumulating 2.44 million coins.
If BTC encounters resistance during a rise and enters a correction, the range of $100,000 to $101,500 constitutes short-term support, while the range of $93,000 to $98,000 serves as the key defensive area.
In the short term, the price may not necessarily "rise the same way it falls," but a correction may be difficult to avoid. Despite the U.S. market being closed over the weekend, data as of May 16 shows that BTC ETF has seen a net inflow of $260 million for three consecutive days, while a whale address has spent $226 million to increase its BTC holdings. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor updated the BTC tracker yesterday, signaling that institutions and large holders are continuously bottom-fishing.
Against the backdrop of bottom-fishing funds not yet exiting the market, the overall trend of the market may not have ended.
#美国加征关税
If BTC encounters resistance during a rise and enters a correction, the range of $100,000 to $101,500 constitutes short-term support, while the range of $93,000 to $98,000 serves as the key defensive area.
In the short term, the price may not necessarily "rise the same way it falls," but a correction may be difficult to avoid. Despite the U.S. market being closed over the weekend, data as of May 16 shows that BTC ETF has seen a net inflow of $260 million for three consecutive days, while a whale address has spent $226 million to increase its BTC holdings. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor updated the BTC tracker yesterday, signaling that institutions and large holders are continuously bottom-fishing.
Against the backdrop of bottom-fishing funds not yet exiting the market, the overall trend of the market may not have ended.
#美国加征关税
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【Bitcoin fell below the 102,500 mark, dropping about 0.82% in 24 hours】
Moody's announced it has downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, directly citing the high $36 trillion national debt and worsening deficit issues. As a result, the yield on U.S. 30-year Treasury bonds surged towards the 5% mark, while the dollar index weakened in the short term.
The cryptocurrency market is under significant pressure, with Bitcoin and Ethereum quickly retreating after a spike. Asian investors are increasingly risk-averse, and some large investors are facing liquidation due to high leverage.
As the U.S. stock market opening approaches, market speculation may further intensify, with investors closely monitoring the impact of the U.S. debt crisis on global financial markets.
#山寨季何时到来？
Moody's announced it has downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, directly citing the high $36 trillion national debt and worsening deficit issues. As a result, the yield on U.S. 30-year Treasury bonds surged towards the 5% mark, while the dollar index weakened in the short term.
The cryptocurrency market is under significant pressure, with Bitcoin and Ethereum quickly retreating after a spike. Asian investors are increasingly risk-averse, and some large investors are facing liquidation due to high leverage.
As the U.S. stock market opening approaches, market speculation may further intensify, with investors closely monitoring the impact of the U.S. debt crisis on global financial markets.
#山寨季何时到来？
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Today, May 19, the BTC price is 102550.
1️⃣ BTC hit around 107000 twice in 4 hours, while ETH suddenly plummeted by 11%. This drop was indeed unexpected! Black Monday’s market remains tough; in the next day or two, I think BTC might stabilize around 103000, but the daily trend of ETH is too terrible, and it has also dragged down altcoins. In this situation, shorting is more profitable, and I suggest shorting during any rebound.
If you want to go long, it’s best to wait for Bitcoin to drop to around 100000 before entering, it’s safer! Remember, not all market conditions in the crypto sphere can be entered blindly; sometimes the more you mess around, the more you lose!
2️⃣ I originally wanted to go long yesterday, thinking of waiting for a pullback, but ETH directly “plunged.” Now I can only hold off and patiently wait for Bitcoin to drop a bit more. Now everyone understands that the value of altcoins is limited, and the project teams are eager to dump their tokens, fearing they will be delisted later; hence, altcoins can easily plummet after a brief rise, and the project teams won't buy back tokens at high prices anymore. Thinking about it, it really makes sense!
3️⃣ BTC is currently under heavy pressure, friends who are going long on rebounds must not be greedy, I emphasize it again!
#BTC挑战11万大关
1️⃣ BTC hit around 107000 twice in 4 hours, while ETH suddenly plummeted by 11%. This drop was indeed unexpected! Black Monday’s market remains tough; in the next day or two, I think BTC might stabilize around 103000, but the daily trend of ETH is too terrible, and it has also dragged down altcoins. In this situation, shorting is more profitable, and I suggest shorting during any rebound.
If you want to go long, it’s best to wait for Bitcoin to drop to around 100000 before entering, it’s safer! Remember, not all market conditions in the crypto sphere can be entered blindly; sometimes the more you mess around, the more you lose!
2️⃣ I originally wanted to go long yesterday, thinking of waiting for a pullback, but ETH directly “plunged.” Now I can only hold off and patiently wait for Bitcoin to drop a bit more. Now everyone understands that the value of altcoins is limited, and the project teams are eager to dump their tokens, fearing they will be delisted later; hence, altcoins can easily plummet after a brief rise, and the project teams won't buy back tokens at high prices anymore. Thinking about it, it really makes sense!
3️⃣ BTC is currently under heavy pressure, friends who are going long on rebounds must not be greedy, I emphasize it again!
#BTC挑战11万大关
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After several discussions about false breakouts, the real breakout has finally arrived, and many have been caught off guard this time. 😰
However, a false breakout does not necessarily lead to an immediate bearish trend; it may also return to a consolidation zone — as long as Bitcoin holds the 100,000 mark, there may still be slight upward movement if favorable conditions arise. It's just that the overall situation is nearing its peak; it's enough to catch the body of the fish, and the tail end of the market poses significant risks and can be abandoned.
In the short term, the consolidation area near 100,000 is a key support level. If it is not broken, the trend remains unchanged. Once it is lost, it may trigger a volatile downward movement.
The next bottom is expected to appear in the summer off-season of July-August. I hope the market trend can evolve as anticipated.~
#山寨季何时到来？
However, a false breakout does not necessarily lead to an immediate bearish trend; it may also return to a consolidation zone — as long as Bitcoin holds the 100,000 mark, there may still be slight upward movement if favorable conditions arise. It's just that the overall situation is nearing its peak; it's enough to catch the body of the fish, and the tail end of the market poses significant risks and can be abandoned.
In the short term, the consolidation area near 100,000 is a key support level. If it is not broken, the trend remains unchanged. Once it is lost, it may trigger a volatile downward movement.
The next bottom is expected to appear in the summer off-season of July-August. I hope the market trend can evolve as anticipated.~
#山寨季何时到来？
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Hey guys! Bitcoin rebounded to the important resistance level of 106,000 points yesterday. The short positions above have accumulated for a long time, and the battle between bulls and bears is intense!
This morning in the Asian market, another battle broke out, briefly breaking through 107,000 before pulling back nearly 5,000 points.
At the tail end of the bull market, a 5,000 point fluctuation isn't too significant, but the pattern is starting to show some signs of a peak~ The daily chart shows a clear bearish trend. The next focus is on whether the previous low and the 20-day moving average will break. The support below is at 102,300-100,600-98,730, and the resistance above is at 106,000-108,000-110,500.
When it first drops to the previous low of 100,600, you might try a long position with a small stop loss!
Recently, the market has been very volatile, so be sure to set your stop-loss properly! Before June 12-14, regardless of being bullish or bearish, trade short-term, unless you have unlimited funds~ After June, short positions may become mainstream!
Ethereum, as the leader of altcoins, generally follows Bitcoin's ups and downs. If it goes the opposite way, be cautious as the short-term direction may have changed; observe more!
Its resistance above is at 2,750-2,650-2,510, and the support below is at 1,980-2,100-2,220-2,350.
We plan to open a long position near 2,280-2,330, aiming for 2,615-2,747-2,880. If it rises to 2,620 and fails to move further, we can short for a target of 2,515.
For short positions, just watch the resistance level and operate according to the pattern. The first time it hits 2,920-3,085, you can short; remember to set a good stop loss!
#山寨季何时到来？
This morning in the Asian market, another battle broke out, briefly breaking through 107,000 before pulling back nearly 5,000 points.
At the tail end of the bull market, a 5,000 point fluctuation isn't too significant, but the pattern is starting to show some signs of a peak~ The daily chart shows a clear bearish trend. The next focus is on whether the previous low and the 20-day moving average will break. The support below is at 102,300-100,600-98,730, and the resistance above is at 106,000-108,000-110,500.
When it first drops to the previous low of 100,600, you might try a long position with a small stop loss!
Recently, the market has been very volatile, so be sure to set your stop-loss properly! Before June 12-14, regardless of being bullish or bearish, trade short-term, unless you have unlimited funds~ After June, short positions may become mainstream!
Ethereum, as the leader of altcoins, generally follows Bitcoin's ups and downs. If it goes the opposite way, be cautious as the short-term direction may have changed; observe more!
Its resistance above is at 2,750-2,650-2,510, and the support below is at 1,980-2,100-2,220-2,350.
We plan to open a long position near 2,280-2,330, aiming for 2,615-2,747-2,880. If it rises to 2,620 and fails to move further, we can short for a target of 2,515.
For short positions, just watch the resistance level and operate according to the pattern. The first time it hits 2,920-3,085, you can short; remember to set a good stop loss!
#山寨季何时到来？
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Dogecoin (DOGE) Market Analysis
Current Price: $0.21, recent trends show it has entered a high demand zone and broken through a short-term bearish structure, forming a 'higher high' pattern, releasing short-term bullish signals.
Key Technical Features
Demand Zone Support: After reaching a strong support range, buyers actively intervened to drive the price reversal, breaking through the short-term bearish trend line, with weak positions being cleared.
Probability Data Support: The probability of falling below the daily low again is only 16.5%, with significant support effectiveness; under historically similar patterns, there is an 88.6% probability of creating a new daily high, indicating sufficient short-term rebound momentum.
Key Resistance Levels: The $0.235-$0.24 range is the dividing line for bulls and bears (historically resisted multiple times), and without breaking previous market structure, the outlook remains neutrally bearish.
Bullish and Bearish Scenario Analysis
Bullish Path: If it breaks through the $0.235-$0.24 resistance, the short-term target is $0.30, with a long-term potential up to $0.95.
Bearish Risk: If it encounters resistance and falls back, it may return to the $0.18-$0.20 demand zone seeking support.
Operational Strategy Suggestions
Short-Term Trading: Focus on the breakthrough situation at $0.235-$0.24, and after breaking, consider going long, with a stop-loss set below $0.20 (stop-loss if it falls below the demand zone).
Long-Term Positioning: After confirming the breakthrough, it can be held until the $0.95 target, with phased profit-taking recommended.
Risk Control: Closely monitor changes in trading volume, be alert to the risk of stagnation at resistance levels, and avoid chasing higher prices.
Market Reminder: The overall trend currently remains in a neutrally bearish structure, breaking through key resistance levels is a necessary condition for turning bullish, requiring careful observation.
#美国加征关税 #BTC挑战11万大关
Current Price: $0.21, recent trends show it has entered a high demand zone and broken through a short-term bearish structure, forming a 'higher high' pattern, releasing short-term bullish signals.
Key Technical Features
Demand Zone Support: After reaching a strong support range, buyers actively intervened to drive the price reversal, breaking through the short-term bearish trend line, with weak positions being cleared.
Probability Data Support: The probability of falling below the daily low again is only 16.5%, with significant support effectiveness; under historically similar patterns, there is an 88.6% probability of creating a new daily high, indicating sufficient short-term rebound momentum.
Key Resistance Levels: The $0.235-$0.24 range is the dividing line for bulls and bears (historically resisted multiple times), and without breaking previous market structure, the outlook remains neutrally bearish.
Bullish and Bearish Scenario Analysis
Bullish Path: If it breaks through the $0.235-$0.24 resistance, the short-term target is $0.30, with a long-term potential up to $0.95.
Bearish Risk: If it encounters resistance and falls back, it may return to the $0.18-$0.20 demand zone seeking support.
Operational Strategy Suggestions
Short-Term Trading: Focus on the breakthrough situation at $0.235-$0.24, and after breaking, consider going long, with a stop-loss set below $0.20 (stop-loss if it falls below the demand zone).
Long-Term Positioning: After confirming the breakthrough, it can be held until the $0.95 target, with phased profit-taking recommended.
Risk Control: Closely monitor changes in trading volume, be alert to the risk of stagnation at resistance levels, and avoid chasing higher prices.
Market Reminder: The overall trend currently remains in a neutrally bearish structure, breaking through key resistance levels is a necessary condition for turning bullish, requiring careful observation.
#美国加征关税 #BTC挑战11万大关
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ETH Operational Strategy Analysis
Ethereum breaks through 2433 with volume, you can enter on the right side to participate in the rebound; if this level is lost, stop loss. If it falls below 2391 with volume, you can enter on the right side to short, strictly set stop loss. After confirming effective support at 2312, you can try to go long; if it breaks below 2269, stop loss and exit.
Key Point Strategy:
Long Opportunities: Breakthrough and stabilize above the hourly level of 2452, target 2510-2555 (need to pay attention to the siphoning effect of Bitcoin's rise on ETH funds); Left-side layout: 2227 low buy long, stop loss if it breaks below 2197.
Short Opportunities: If it rebounds near 2513, you can try shorting with a light position, stop loss if it breaks above 2545.
Trends and Risks:
If it breaks below 2319 on the 4-hour level, the target is 2272-2186;
From a technical perspective, ETH needs a deep pullback to solidify support, avoiding the risk of a pullback triggered by a sharp rise, and it is advisable to restrain FOMO emotions.
Key Ranges:
Resistance: 2451-2514-2558 Support: 2379-2311-2256
#美国加征关税
Ethereum breaks through 2433 with volume, you can enter on the right side to participate in the rebound; if this level is lost, stop loss. If it falls below 2391 with volume, you can enter on the right side to short, strictly set stop loss. After confirming effective support at 2312, you can try to go long; if it breaks below 2269, stop loss and exit.
Key Point Strategy:
Long Opportunities: Breakthrough and stabilize above the hourly level of 2452, target 2510-2555 (need to pay attention to the siphoning effect of Bitcoin's rise on ETH funds); Left-side layout: 2227 low buy long, stop loss if it breaks below 2197.
Short Opportunities: If it rebounds near 2513, you can try shorting with a light position, stop loss if it breaks above 2545.
Trends and Risks:
If it breaks below 2319 on the 4-hour level, the target is 2272-2186;
From a technical perspective, ETH needs a deep pullback to solidify support, avoiding the risk of a pullback triggered by a sharp rise, and it is advisable to restrain FOMO emotions.
Key Ranges:
Resistance: 2451-2514-2558 Support: 2379-2311-2256
#美国加征关税
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BTC Technical Analysis and Strategy Suggestions
Bitcoin has finally broken through the upper resistance level of 104667. Although the breakthrough process was turbulent, once it stabilized above 105400 (hourly closing price), a right-side long strategy can be initiated, with stop loss upon breakout.
If the 104667 level is broken with volume and does not recover, a right-side short can be initiated, with stop loss if it recovers that level — this position has changed from resistance to support, and losing it would require caution for downside risks.
Key Point Operation Guide:
Long Opportunities: If 103299 shows a false breakdown and recovers, a light position can be taken long, with stop loss set at the low point of the false breakdown or 102651; conservative players can set up long positions at 101493, with stop loss at 100706.
Short Opportunities: If the price touches 107294 and shows a 2B false breakout, a light position can be taken short, with stop loss upon stabilization above 108163.
Trend and Targets:
Hourly breakout at 105913, looking at 107294-108204. Whether it can challenge the previous high requires positive catalysts;
4-hour level breakdown at 103247, targeting lower at 102339-101447, current support at 104667 is questionable in stability.
Risk Warning:
If the hourly yellow arrow points to a bullish K-line that is engulfed by a bearish line, a "high hanging restoration" trend may occur, meaning that the upward trend may retrace. Operations need to closely monitor volume changes and strictly maintain stop losses.
Key Ranges:
Resistance: 105412-105982-106489
Support: 103297-102614-101461
#美国加征关税 #山寨季何时到来？
Bitcoin has finally broken through the upper resistance level of 104667. Although the breakthrough process was turbulent, once it stabilized above 105400 (hourly closing price), a right-side long strategy can be initiated, with stop loss upon breakout.
If the 104667 level is broken with volume and does not recover, a right-side short can be initiated, with stop loss if it recovers that level — this position has changed from resistance to support, and losing it would require caution for downside risks.
Key Point Operation Guide:
Long Opportunities: If 103299 shows a false breakdown and recovers, a light position can be taken long, with stop loss set at the low point of the false breakdown or 102651; conservative players can set up long positions at 101493, with stop loss at 100706.
Short Opportunities: If the price touches 107294 and shows a 2B false breakout, a light position can be taken short, with stop loss upon stabilization above 108163.
Trend and Targets:
Hourly breakout at 105913, looking at 107294-108204. Whether it can challenge the previous high requires positive catalysts;
4-hour level breakdown at 103247, targeting lower at 102339-101447, current support at 104667 is questionable in stability.
Risk Warning:
If the hourly yellow arrow points to a bullish K-line that is engulfed by a bearish line, a "high hanging restoration" trend may occur, meaning that the upward trend may retrace. Operations need to closely monitor volume changes and strictly maintain stop losses.
Key Ranges:
Resistance: 105412-105982-106489
Support: 103297-102614-101461
#美国加征关税 #山寨季何时到来？
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BTC Concentration Index Analysis
From May 7 to May 14, BTC concentration dropped sharply from 15.5% to 8.2%, indicating that the price rally has left the concentrated area.
Typically, a continuous decline in concentration is often accompanied by an upward price movement. However, after May 14, this indicator stagnated around 8.2%, even showing signs of turning upward.
Two-way scenario analysis:
Scenario 1 (Price Correction): If the price falls back to the original concentration area, the concentration curve will quickly rebound, potentially triggering a volatility amplification effect similar to January 23, 2025;
Scenario 2 (Price Continuation): If the upward trend continues, the concentration curve may replicate the movement on November 3, 2024, briefly consolidating before continuing downward.
Current Market Signals:
The indicator's stagnation breaks the "smooth decline" trend, suggesting that the bull-bear game has entered a directional choice node. Relying solely on this indicator makes it difficult to predict price fluctuations, but one must be wary of rising volatility risks - if concentration further increases, positioning volatility strategies (such as straddle options) may be cost-effective.
⚠️ Note: This article is for technical communication only and does not constitute investment advice.
#美国加征关税 #BTC挑战11万大关
From May 7 to May 14, BTC concentration dropped sharply from 15.5% to 8.2%, indicating that the price rally has left the concentrated area.
Typically, a continuous decline in concentration is often accompanied by an upward price movement. However, after May 14, this indicator stagnated around 8.2%, even showing signs of turning upward.
Two-way scenario analysis:
Scenario 1 (Price Correction): If the price falls back to the original concentration area, the concentration curve will quickly rebound, potentially triggering a volatility amplification effect similar to January 23, 2025;
Scenario 2 (Price Continuation): If the upward trend continues, the concentration curve may replicate the movement on November 3, 2024, briefly consolidating before continuing downward.
Current Market Signals:
The indicator's stagnation breaks the "smooth decline" trend, suggesting that the bull-bear game has entered a directional choice node. Relying solely on this indicator makes it difficult to predict price fluctuations, but one must be wary of rising volatility risks - if concentration further increases, positioning volatility strategies (such as straddle options) may be cost-effective.
⚠️ Note: This article is for technical communication only and does not constitute investment advice.
#美国加征关税 #BTC挑战11万大关
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Weekend Market Review and Trading Strategy
The weekend market once again showed a "midnight shock" trend:
On Monday morning, BTC/ETH experienced a dramatic rise and fall. Investors without risk control faced liquidation, while those following strategies seized the opportunity precisely—short positions were entered during the second peak, and long positions were placed as planned (ETH perfectly entered at 2343, yielding over 100 points in profit), achieving seven consecutive wins last week.
Key Level Tracking
BTC
Support: 101175 (core), 98500, 97200, 93911
Resistance: 110000
Strategy: Observe the effectiveness of support near 101175 during a pullback; if broken, it may test the 100,000 mark; if stabilized, maintain high-level fluctuations and consider trying long positions based on support.
ETH
Support: 2343 (verified), 2285, 2215
Resistance: 2851
Tip: This morning's sharp drop verified the effectiveness of support; those who positioned long against the trend have made profits, highlighting the value of key level predictions.
Market Experience and Trading Recommendations
After going through multiple bull and bear cycles, risk control has always been the foundation of survival. Today's strategy:
Watch during the day, waiting for ultra-short-term confirmation signals for a second bottom;
If new lows are set in the evening or a short squeeze trend occurs, consider positioning long inversely, with strict stop-loss settings (e.g., stop-loss if ETH falls below 2285).
Motto: With stop-loss in hand, opportunities come to me; blindly chasing rises and falls is not as good as patiently waiting for confirmation signals.
#山寨季何时到来？ #美国加征关税
The weekend market once again showed a "midnight shock" trend:
On Monday morning, BTC/ETH experienced a dramatic rise and fall. Investors without risk control faced liquidation, while those following strategies seized the opportunity precisely—short positions were entered during the second peak, and long positions were placed as planned (ETH perfectly entered at 2343, yielding over 100 points in profit), achieving seven consecutive wins last week.
Key Level Tracking
BTC
Support: 101175 (core), 98500, 97200, 93911
Resistance: 110000
Strategy: Observe the effectiveness of support near 101175 during a pullback; if broken, it may test the 100,000 mark; if stabilized, maintain high-level fluctuations and consider trying long positions based on support.
ETH
Support: 2343 (verified), 2285, 2215
Resistance: 2851
Tip: This morning's sharp drop verified the effectiveness of support; those who positioned long against the trend have made profits, highlighting the value of key level predictions.
Market Experience and Trading Recommendations
After going through multiple bull and bear cycles, risk control has always been the foundation of survival. Today's strategy:
Watch during the day, waiting for ultra-short-term confirmation signals for a second bottom;
If new lows are set in the evening or a short squeeze trend occurs, consider positioning long inversely, with strict stop-loss settings (e.g., stop-loss if ETH falls below 2285).
Motto: With stop-loss in hand, opportunities come to me; blindly chasing rises and falls is not as good as patiently waiting for confirmation signals.
#山寨季何时到来？ #美国加征关税
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On-chain data shows that since April 4th, long-term holders have accumulated an additional 339,000 BTC, bringing the current total supply of LTH to 14.3703 million.
In terms of market conditions, Bitcoin is maintaining a sideways trend on the right, with downward momentum diminishing. The supply-demand pattern shows that selling pressure is being effectively absorbed. After a major adjustment, there is strong upward momentum, and the narrow fluctuations at a smaller level indicate solid double-bottom support. Once broken, it is expected to challenge historical highs, with a higher probability of setting new highs in the medium to long term.
ETH shows significant correlation with Bitcoin and may regain market leader status after the adjustment.
Altcoins are generally following the mainstream rhythm, and once the adjustment is complete, capital activity is expected to rebound, while Bitcoin's market capitalization ratio may show a downward trend.
The current Fear and Greed Index is 71, indicating that market sentiment is leaning towards optimism.
#CPI数据来袭
In terms of market conditions, Bitcoin is maintaining a sideways trend on the right, with downward momentum diminishing. The supply-demand pattern shows that selling pressure is being effectively absorbed. After a major adjustment, there is strong upward momentum, and the narrow fluctuations at a smaller level indicate solid double-bottom support. Once broken, it is expected to challenge historical highs, with a higher probability of setting new highs in the medium to long term.
ETH shows significant correlation with Bitcoin and may regain market leader status after the adjustment.
Altcoins are generally following the mainstream rhythm, and once the adjustment is complete, capital activity is expected to rebound, while Bitcoin's market capitalization ratio may show a downward trend.
The current Fear and Greed Index is 71, indicating that market sentiment is leaning towards optimism.
#CPI数据来袭
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Altcoin sentiment has entered a recession period, with a projected 20% risk of a sharp decline in the coming week.
In a weak cycle where the profit-making effect is lacking, it is advisable to adopt a conservative strategy: the newly launched NXPC yesterday failed to sustain the emotional rally and instead retreated, highlighting a lack of market synergy.
Additionally, Trump’s recent frequent interventions in the U.S. stock market have made the market environment more complex.
Survival recommendations:
① Keep 50% cash position in your wallet;
② Prioritize allocation to mainstream coins like Bitcoin / Ethereum;
③ This week, mainly observe and wait for the market to stabilize before entering the market again.
#CPI数据来袭
In a weak cycle where the profit-making effect is lacking, it is advisable to adopt a conservative strategy: the newly launched NXPC yesterday failed to sustain the emotional rally and instead retreated, highlighting a lack of market synergy.
Additionally, Trump’s recent frequent interventions in the U.S. stock market have made the market environment more complex.
Survival recommendations:
① Keep 50% cash position in your wallet;
② Prioritize allocation to mainstream coins like Bitcoin / Ethereum;
③ This week, mainly observe and wait for the market to stabilize before entering the market again.
#CPI数据来袭
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BTC Liquidation Map Update:
The accumulation of positions in Bitcoin has reached a scale, with significant liquidity increasing above, especially in the $106,000 range.
Potential Trend Prediction: BTC may quickly rise to around $106,200, liquidating long contracts in that area, allowing the price to briefly test a higher range of 1000 points, before a downward move — first breaking below the $100,000 round number, then testing the CME gap and the massive liquidity area around $92,000 below.
#稳定币日常支付
The accumulation of positions in Bitcoin has reached a scale, with significant liquidity increasing above, especially in the $106,000 range.
Potential Trend Prediction: BTC may quickly rise to around $106,200, liquidating long contracts in that area, allowing the price to briefly test a higher range of 1000 points, before a downward move — first breaking below the $100,000 round number, then testing the CME gap and the massive liquidity area around $92,000 below.
#稳定币日常支付
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Swing trading opportunities are emerging!
Referencing historical trends, Bitcoin has experienced around 2 weeks of consolidation after each rally, and we are currently in a window for swing trading. The short-term resistance level is $104,500, and the support level is $101,500, allowing for high-selling and low-buying within this range.
After the consolidation, Bitcoin may start a new trend: aggressive traders can gradually build positions in the support zone and capture the main upward wave once the trend is clear, betting on the opportunity to break previous highs; if the price breaks down through support, a slight dip below can trigger a stop-loss to exit, aiming for potential gains with limited risk.
#CPI数据来袭
Referencing historical trends, Bitcoin has experienced around 2 weeks of consolidation after each rally, and we are currently in a window for swing trading. The short-term resistance level is $104,500, and the support level is $101,500, allowing for high-selling and low-buying within this range.
After the consolidation, Bitcoin may start a new trend: aggressive traders can gradually build positions in the support zone and capture the main upward wave once the trend is clear, betting on the opportunity to break previous highs; if the price breaks down through support, a slight dip below can trigger a stop-loss to exit, aiming for potential gains with limited risk.
#CPI数据来袭
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BTC Weekly Level Trend Emerges!
Is it a trap for the bulls or a prelude to a bull run?
In April, the net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETF reached nearly $3 billion, with an additional $1.6 billion added from May to now. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that the capital flow is mainly directional bets, with significant characteristics of non-arbitrage trading.
On the policy front, New Hampshire has become the first state in the U.S. to pass a Bitcoin strategic reserve bill, with 19 states following suit in legislation. Arizona is pushing forward bills related to cryptocurrency custody and strategic reserves; the federal Senate vetoed the "GENIUS Act" (stablecoin regulation bill), maintaining market risk appetite stability.
In terms of the macro economy, adjustments to Trump's tariff policies have boosted the stock market and the dollar, reducing recession expectations and suppressing market volatility. Bitcoin benefits from a surge in institutional demand, an improved policy environment, and a warming macro landscape, leading to increased bullish sentiment among investors.
Despite the favorable data and policies, Bitcoin's current breakthrough of the $100,000 threshold still requires more off-market funds for support, rather than being purely driven by sentiment. Although the technical pattern shows a breakout signal, there is suspicion of a bull trap, needing a retest to confirm the validity of support.
Currently, the sequence of high points after breaking $100,000 is 105800-104950-104440, showing a downward trend, and the bottom lift (by $2000-$3000) is insufficient to complete a washout. The market may need a correction at the $10,000 level to clear floating capital, with a demand for a retest in the $95000-$97000 range; otherwise, bulls will find it difficult to directly challenge $105000 and advance towards the historical high of $110000.
Currently, extreme bullish sentiment is focused on the expectation of a rate cut in July, and caution is needed against the "anti-human" trading logic - when the market uniformly expects a rate cut to initiate an upward trend, the market may move in the opposite direction.
Previously, the market thought that without a rate cut, it would be hard to rise, yet BTC rebounded from $75,000 in a V-shape to $105,000; now the market is convinced that a rate cut will drive new highs, and investors need to guard against the risk of a pullback, avoiding blind bottom-fishing.
#币安Alpha上新
Is it a trap for the bulls or a prelude to a bull run?
In April, the net inflow of spot Bitcoin ETF reached nearly $3 billion, with an additional $1.6 billion added from May to now. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that the capital flow is mainly directional bets, with significant characteristics of non-arbitrage trading.
On the policy front, New Hampshire has become the first state in the U.S. to pass a Bitcoin strategic reserve bill, with 19 states following suit in legislation. Arizona is pushing forward bills related to cryptocurrency custody and strategic reserves; the federal Senate vetoed the "GENIUS Act" (stablecoin regulation bill), maintaining market risk appetite stability.
In terms of the macro economy, adjustments to Trump's tariff policies have boosted the stock market and the dollar, reducing recession expectations and suppressing market volatility. Bitcoin benefits from a surge in institutional demand, an improved policy environment, and a warming macro landscape, leading to increased bullish sentiment among investors.
Despite the favorable data and policies, Bitcoin's current breakthrough of the $100,000 threshold still requires more off-market funds for support, rather than being purely driven by sentiment. Although the technical pattern shows a breakout signal, there is suspicion of a bull trap, needing a retest to confirm the validity of support.
Currently, the sequence of high points after breaking $100,000 is 105800-104950-104440, showing a downward trend, and the bottom lift (by $2000-$3000) is insufficient to complete a washout. The market may need a correction at the $10,000 level to clear floating capital, with a demand for a retest in the $95000-$97000 range; otherwise, bulls will find it difficult to directly challenge $105000 and advance towards the historical high of $110000.
Currently, extreme bullish sentiment is focused on the expectation of a rate cut in July, and caution is needed against the "anti-human" trading logic - when the market uniformly expects a rate cut to initiate an upward trend, the market may move in the opposite direction.
Previously, the market thought that without a rate cut, it would be hard to rise, yet BTC rebounded from $75,000 in a V-shape to $105,000; now the market is convinced that a rate cut will drive new highs, and investors need to guard against the risk of a pullback, avoiding blind bottom-fishing.
#币安Alpha上新
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Ripple (XRP) Market Analysis and Outlook
XRP has performed remarkably over the past year and may become its best historical year in 2024-2025.
In the past 12 months, this cryptocurrency has seen a cumulative increase of 389%, reaching a high of $3.39 earlier this year. Although it did not surpass the historical peak of $3.84, the market remains optimistic about its future performance.
Short-term trend and key data monthly performance: It has risen 14.63% in the last 30 days, with the price climbing from $2.04 to $2.65;
Weekly dynamics: It has increased by 12.40% in the past week, with the current quote at $2.35 (a 5.16% correction in the last 24 hours);
Historical comparison: It is still 35% lower than the historical high of $3.84, and if the price doubles, it would reach $4.90. Despite the inevitable short-term fluctuations, the market generally believes that XRP is likely to reach higher price levels within the year.
Price prediction agencies indicate that it may reach a peak of $4.90 in October-November 2026, requiring patience for trend-catalyzing factors. As the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, the long-term upward logic for XRP remains unchanged under the support of fundamentals and market sentiment.
#Xrp🔥🔥
XRP has performed remarkably over the past year and may become its best historical year in 2024-2025.
In the past 12 months, this cryptocurrency has seen a cumulative increase of 389%, reaching a high of $3.39 earlier this year. Although it did not surpass the historical peak of $3.84, the market remains optimistic about its future performance.
Short-term trend and key data monthly performance: It has risen 14.63% in the last 30 days, with the price climbing from $2.04 to $2.65;
Weekly dynamics: It has increased by 12.40% in the past week, with the current quote at $2.35 (a 5.16% correction in the last 24 hours);
Historical comparison: It is still 35% lower than the historical high of $3.84, and if the price doubles, it would reach $4.90. Despite the inevitable short-term fluctuations, the market generally believes that XRP is likely to reach higher price levels within the year.
Price prediction agencies indicate that it may reach a peak of $4.90 in October-November 2026, requiring patience for trend-catalyzing factors. As the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, the long-term upward logic for XRP remains unchanged under the support of fundamentals and market sentiment.
#Xrp🔥🔥
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BTC Today Market Analysis: Fluctuations continue, key levels determine direction. Currently, BTC's trend enters a phase of high-frequency volatility, and a clear one-sided trend has yet to emerge.
Technical Analysis: From the 4-hour Fibonacci indicator, the previous high of $105,835 forms a strong resistance level. If it cannot break through, the market may pull back.
Support Levels: The first support level is $102,900; if it breaks, it will test the second support level of $101,000. Market Rhythm: Lacking stimulus from news, the market is expected to continue range fluctuations, and operations need to closely monitor signals of breaking resistance and support levels.
#贸易战缓和
Technical Analysis: From the 4-hour Fibonacci indicator, the previous high of $105,835 forms a strong resistance level. If it cannot break through, the market may pull back.
Support Levels: The first support level is $102,900; if it breaks, it will test the second support level of $101,000. Market Rhythm: Lacking stimulus from news, the market is expected to continue range fluctuations, and operations need to closely monitor signals of breaking resistance and support levels.
#贸易战缓和
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SUI Market Analysis and Operational Suggestions
Regarding the recently closely watched SUI, combined with the previous medium to long-term layout ideas, the current trend analysis is as follows:
Price Dynamics: Current price around 3.9 USD, entering a consolidation phase at a smaller scale, the MACD indicator shows a golden cross signal near the zero axis, indicating that the tug-of-war between bulls and bears is approaching balance.
Key Levels: Potential resistance levels above at 4.5-4.7 USD, a breakthrough in this range is needed to open up new high space.
Operational Strategy:
For holders: Spot positions entered earlier can continue to be held to lock in medium to long-term profit space. For onlookers: Attention can be paid to the construction opportunity near the EMA50 moving average (3.2 USD), gradually laying out based on this support level.
Risk Warning: During the consolidation period, be cautious of short-term fluctuations; under the premise that the medium to long-term logic remains unchanged, patiently wait for the trend to become clearer.
#CPI数据来袭
Regarding the recently closely watched SUI, combined with the previous medium to long-term layout ideas, the current trend analysis is as follows:
Price Dynamics: Current price around 3.9 USD, entering a consolidation phase at a smaller scale, the MACD indicator shows a golden cross signal near the zero axis, indicating that the tug-of-war between bulls and bears is approaching balance.
Key Levels: Potential resistance levels above at 4.5-4.7 USD, a breakthrough in this range is needed to open up new high space.
Operational Strategy:
For holders: Spot positions entered earlier can continue to be held to lock in medium to long-term profit space. For onlookers: Attention can be paid to the construction opportunity near the EMA50 moving average (3.2 USD), gradually laying out based on this support level.
Risk Warning: During the consolidation period, be cautious of short-term fluctuations; under the premise that the medium to long-term logic remains unchanged, patiently wait for the trend to become clearer.
#CPI数据来袭
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ETH Trading Strategy: Linked to BTC for Breakthroughs, Key Levels Set Long and Short Right-Side Trading Signals:
Breakout Long: Volume breakout at $2578, right-side long, if the price falls below this level, set a stop loss.
Breakdown Short: Volume drop below $2542, right-side short, strict stop loss required.
Support Level Long Opportunity:
Confirm support effectiveness after a pullback to $2507, can try a light long, stop loss below $2475.
Technical Outlook:
If the hourly level breaks above $2599, the upper target looks at $2626-$2669, current upward movement relies on BTC linkage.
A rebound to $2676 can try a light short, stop loss above $2700.
Left Side Layout: Long position pre-set at $2431, resolute stop loss below $2400.
Key Levels:
Resistance Levels: $2603-$2635-$2668 Support Levels: $2545-$2510-$2452 If the 4-hour level drops below $2541, the pullback target may explore $2478-$2435.
Market Sentiment Warning:
Currently, most investors have a strong bullish sentiment, need to beware of the pullback risk under 'consensus expectations' - the greater the short-term increase, the stronger the subsequent profit-taking pressure, it is recommended to control positions in operations, and avoid chasing overheated coins.
#CPI数据来袭
Breakout Long: Volume breakout at $2578, right-side long, if the price falls below this level, set a stop loss.
Breakdown Short: Volume drop below $2542, right-side short, strict stop loss required.
Support Level Long Opportunity:
Confirm support effectiveness after a pullback to $2507, can try a light long, stop loss below $2475.
Technical Outlook:
If the hourly level breaks above $2599, the upper target looks at $2626-$2669, current upward movement relies on BTC linkage.
A rebound to $2676 can try a light short, stop loss above $2700.
Left Side Layout: Long position pre-set at $2431, resolute stop loss below $2400.
Key Levels:
Resistance Levels: $2603-$2635-$2668 Support Levels: $2545-$2510-$2452 If the 4-hour level drops below $2541, the pullback target may explore $2478-$2435.
Market Sentiment Warning:
Currently, most investors have a strong bullish sentiment, need to beware of the pullback risk under 'consensus expectations' - the greater the short-term increase, the stronger the subsequent profit-taking pressure, it is recommended to control positions in operations, and avoid chasing overheated coins.
#CPI数据来袭
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Powell's "Hawkish" Speech Shakes the Market!
Detailed Long and Short Strategies for Bitcoin Last Night 20:40 Powell Sent Strong Hawkish Signals: Clearly stated that he would reverse the previous easing tone, emphasizing the determination to "not flood the market" until inflation is controlled at 2% before considering interest rate cuts. These remarks have caused market turbulence, with cryptocurrency facing directional choices in the short term.
🍎 Key Levels and Trading Strategies for BTC Breakout Bullish Signal:
Breakout above 104074 USD, and if the hourly closing price stabilizes at this level, one can go long on the right side, with a stop-loss if it breaks.
Breakout Bearish Signal: If it falls below 103634 USD and the pullback cannot recover, one can go short on the right side; if the price recovers within this range, stop-loss is needed, and one should closely monitor volume changes.
Light Position Long Opportunity: If 102511 USD shows a false breakout and quickly recovers, one can take a light position long, with the false breakout low point or breaking below 101693 USD as the stop-loss point; if it cannot recover, abandon the long position.
Key Resistance Levels:
Hourly level needs to break and stabilize above 104602 USD; otherwise, it will be difficult to reach the upper target of 105580-106430 USD.
Short Warning: If 105864 USD shows a 2B false breakout pattern, one can take a light short position; stop-loss if it stabilizes above 106501 USD.
Conservative Strategy: Wait for the support level at 101426 USD to set up long positions, with a stop-loss below 100668 USD.
🍎 Market Outlook and Risk Alerts Resistance Levels: 104607-105412-106109 USD Support Levels: 103320-102352-101426 USD If it falls below 103458 USD at the 4-hour level, the downside may open up to 102795-101513 USD.
Volatility Characteristics: There is a high probability of continued consolidation during the day, with severe fluctuations likely concentrated in the nighttime period; trading must be cautious of the capital flow effects following Powell's speech.
Trading Discipline: The double kill market yesterday indicates that chasing highs and cutting losses easily leads to a "sandwich effect"; it is recommended to build positions in batches based on key levels, strictly execute profit-taking and stop-loss, and avoid emotional trading.
#CPI数据来袭
Detailed Long and Short Strategies for Bitcoin Last Night 20:40 Powell Sent Strong Hawkish Signals: Clearly stated that he would reverse the previous easing tone, emphasizing the determination to "not flood the market" until inflation is controlled at 2% before considering interest rate cuts. These remarks have caused market turbulence, with cryptocurrency facing directional choices in the short term.
🍎 Key Levels and Trading Strategies for BTC Breakout Bullish Signal:
Breakout above 104074 USD, and if the hourly closing price stabilizes at this level, one can go long on the right side, with a stop-loss if it breaks.
Breakout Bearish Signal: If it falls below 103634 USD and the pullback cannot recover, one can go short on the right side; if the price recovers within this range, stop-loss is needed, and one should closely monitor volume changes.
Light Position Long Opportunity: If 102511 USD shows a false breakout and quickly recovers, one can take a light position long, with the false breakout low point or breaking below 101693 USD as the stop-loss point; if it cannot recover, abandon the long position.
Key Resistance Levels:
Hourly level needs to break and stabilize above 104602 USD; otherwise, it will be difficult to reach the upper target of 105580-106430 USD.
Short Warning: If 105864 USD shows a 2B false breakout pattern, one can take a light short position; stop-loss if it stabilizes above 106501 USD.
Conservative Strategy: Wait for the support level at 101426 USD to set up long positions, with a stop-loss below 100668 USD.
🍎 Market Outlook and Risk Alerts Resistance Levels: 104607-105412-106109 USD Support Levels: 103320-102352-101426 USD If it falls below 103458 USD at the 4-hour level, the downside may open up to 102795-101513 USD.
Volatility Characteristics: There is a high probability of continued consolidation during the day, with severe fluctuations likely concentrated in the nighttime period; trading must be cautious of the capital flow effects following Powell's speech.
Trading Discipline: The double kill market yesterday indicates that chasing highs and cutting losses easily leads to a "sandwich effect"; it is recommended to build positions in batches based on key levels, strictly execute profit-taking and stop-loss, and avoid emotional trading.
#CPI数据来袭
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