Early this morning, another heavy wave — multiple on-chain indicators related to Ethereum show that the main force is in an extremely controlled state. What does this mean? It means that while the market seems stagnant, there are actually undercurrents moving; the money is already in motion. It's still that saying — fluctuations are to wash out people, not to drop.
On-chain data shows an interesting phenomenon: in the past 72 hours, large addresses have been continuously accumulating spot positions, especially the three major institutional wallets that have added about 11K, 8K, and 6K ETH respectively, all of which have gone into staking addresses. This is no longer speculation; it's a lock-up for the long-term trend. While you're still worried about it dropping, they are already preparing for positions above 4000+.
More crucially, this slow accumulation of spot positions is not at all the same pattern as the contract surge back in March. When spot control begins to dominate the pace, it means the trend will be slower, steadier, and longer. There will be no opportunities during the trading, and the pullbacks will be limited, causing panic among those who are washed out, yet they still refuse to get on board. Don’t even mention chasing highs; you can't even catch the dips.
The current focus of the market is the upcoming FOMC meeting and the July non-farm payroll data. From the recent speeches by several Federal Reserve officials, they have started to hint that 'the policy is tight enough.' What does this mean? It means that as soon as PCE and non-farm data show a slowdown, they will have a reason to ease and cut interest rates.
As long as Old Powell softens his stance, the market will directly unlock the pass for the second phase of the bull market. Don't be fooled by ETH still hovering around 3880; if it breaks through 4080 with volume, that’s no joke, and it could very well directly shoot to 4300-4500 without issue.
BTC is also surprisingly stable, hovering above 123K for three weeks without dropping, which clearly indicates the main force is locking in positions and washing out retail investors. It neither rises nor falls, just makes you anxious, abandon your positions, and hand over your chips. Once the small platform at 118K is confirmed as unbreakable, the next target is directly 135K.
Many people are still fantasizing, saying 'I'll buy Ethereum when it drops to 3400.' To be honest, such opportunities are simply not offered in the short term. The most critical support for Ethereum right now is around 3650-3660; as long as this holds, it means the main force is still controlling the pace. This phase is characterized by neither rising nor falling, forcing retail investors to make wrong choices.
My personal opinion is very clear: at this stage, Ethereum is not suitable for shorting. At most, it will pull back for a correction before starting again. If it really hits 3550, that would be a gift. Position well, hold steadily for the medium term, and even if it doesn't move for a few weeks, that's fine. The market is built through patience, not through chasing.
Finally, here’s a rhythm prediction:
As long as ETH breaks through 4088 in this round, the next target is 4350-4500;
As long as BTC stabilizes above 123.3K, the target for August is 135K;
The true starting point of the market is not the day it explodes, but the moment you decide 'I won't leave now, nor will I panic.'
