Market review: After a false drop washout, is Bitcoin targeting 121K? The critical point for Ethereum's offense and defense has appeared!
Brothers, don't rush to conclusions, this game is really not over yet, it's actually getting more interesting.
Take Bitcoin for example, last week's 'whale dump' caused quite a stir, the movement of 80,000 BTC was indeed frightening, but what was the result? The market reacted for sure, directly breaking through the fluctuation range, hitting a low around 114.6K, but in a blink of an eye, it stood back up. Is this type of movement familiar? It's an old trick - false breakdown, real washout.
I said it before, the essence of this market is in a range-bound fluctuation. The big players love this sudden drop to wash out the long positions, induce a short squeeze and then pull back. Looking at it now, doesn't it validate that? The market retraced without breaking support, and it even reclaimed the previous plunge area, the structure is already very clear: a tentative rise after a consolidation.
How to play next? My thinking remains the same: as long as the price doesn't effectively drop below 115K, this structure still stands firm, and any retrace is one of the points to add to the medium-term long positions. Of course, we can't be blindly optimistic; if we really lose the 'untested support' at 112K, then we need to be cautious - this isn't just a false short, it's a trend reversal, the direction has to change.
How do we look at the upper side? I don't need to say much about the answer; the two previous highs at 121K are the first targets for this rebound. Funds will sense the opportunity themselves; if the market doesn't push up, it will be uncomfortable - but don't think it will fly straight up. Near the positions of 121K and 122K is basically a liquidity accumulation area which can easily stall.
Back to my own position, the long position at 114.8K has already taken profit. There are too many macro data this week, let it break if it can.
Let's talk about Ethereum again, it showed some muscle today.
Ethereum touched 3990 today, almost hitting the 4K threshold. It retraced a bit during the day, and then started to gather strength again in the afternoon. Now 3800 has become a short-term support; whether it can stabilize depends on how this wave pushes up - if it breaks through the resistance zone of 4112-4150, then it's officially entering the acceleration phase, with the next challenge being 4500 and 4880.
But brothers, stay calm, if it can't push up, doesn't that just give the bears another opportunity? Right now, the area between 3930-4150 is a short defense zone; if we can't hold above it, it's a false breakout. Don't be careless with position control, especially with the end of the month approaching and news intensifying, the Fed might come out with some 'unexpected surprises' at any time.
Don't forget, the monthly golden cross is a big signal, but the golden cross isn't an instant benefit; it's an accumulation of expectations. If it's really going to materialize, we have to wait until the Fed's interest rate decision is over, and then the market sentiment will be set.
Many friends also shorted around 3800 during this wave of increase. I already mentioned last week that I wouldn't choose to short again at 3750. Although I made some profits shorting back and forth at this position, once the pressure breaks, I need to change my mindset.
So, my advice is very clear: lock the rebound range for Ethereum between 3880-4152, those looking to catch the bottom shouldn't be too aggressive, and those looking to short shouldn't be too greedy. Maintain liquidity, stay flexible, the market isn't about desperation, it's about patience amidst the struggle.
