Marina马

First, clarify the 'factual basis'. On August 22 at 16:00 CEST, Powell delivered a speech at Jackson Hole (Economic Outlook and Framework Review). He used two key phrases: first, the labor market is in a 'strange balance' (both supply and demand are slowing); second, 'the downside risk to employment is rising', which if realized will 'quickly reflect as layoffs and rising unemployment rates'. This shifts the focus from 'focusing solely on inflation' to 'weighing the two harms', opening the door for subsequent adjustments.
The market's immediate reaction was direct: after the speech, the major U.S. stock indices rose more than 1.5%, with small-cap stocks performing even stronger; U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the dollar weakened. Reuters and several financial media interpreted this statement as 'leaving the door open for a rate cut in September', and the rate cut probabilities in the futures market were quickly adjusted upward. Gold also shifted from hesitation during the day to an upward trend, briefly rising about 1%, coinciding with the dollar index's decline.

The SEC has postponed the decision on multiple SOL spot ETFs to 10/16, which is a typical 'deadline trade'. Historically, similar events often unfold in two phases: the first phase is the expected volatility as the window approaches (IV rises, funding dynamics intensify), and the second phase is the counter-expected volatility after the result is announced (the direction is often contrary to the consensus expectation, and the magnitude is determined by position congestion and liquidity). My basic strategy is to maintain light positions, enter and exit quickly, primarily focusing on two-way hedging with options, and only executing tactical trades in the spot/perpetual market for 'acceleration after confirmation' or 'over-sold rebounds'.