The SEC has postponed the decision on multiple SOL spot ETFs to 10/16, which is a typical 'deadline trade'. Historically, similar events often unfold in two phases: the first phase is the expected volatility as the window approaches (IV rises, funding dynamics intensify), and the second phase is the counter-expected volatility after the result is announced (the direction is often contrary to the consensus expectation, and the magnitude is determined by position congestion and liquidity). My basic strategy is to maintain light positions, enter and exit quickly, primarily focusing on two-way hedging with options, and only executing tactical trades in the spot/perpetual market for 'acceleration after confirmation' or 'over-sold rebounds'.
First Phase (In front of the window): Focus on three sets of signals—① Derivatives: funding rates, positive and negative basis, open interest and put/call skew; ② Liquidity: CEX depth and slippage, on-chain stablecoin net inflow, mainstream market maker quote width; ③ Position congestion: consistency of social media and fund flow data. If a 'high IV + expanding positive premium + accumulation of OI' congestion combination appears, I prefer a mixed structure of selling volatility / buying protection (such as a small position selling long-dated wide straddles + buying near-term protection leg) to avoid directional exposure.
Second Phase (Result landing): Regardless of approval, rejection, or conditional delay, the primary goal is to address congestion. If there is a 'good news sell-off followed by a pullback', I will reduce the trend leg while retaining the defensive leg when the trading volume increases but price and volume diverge; if 'bad news causes a sell-off but on-chain data and liquidity do not deteriorate', I will consider making T or short-term rebound structures during sharp drops (buying near-month calls or bull spreads). Delays usually enter a 'sharp decline in IV + price convergence' oscillation, and the strategy returns to range management.
Fundamental Sentinel: Monitor on-chain stability and ecosystem stickiness—TPS and failure rates, fee curves, unique active addresses and retention; DePIN and game weekly activity/paid depth; core wallet penetration and mainstream DEX depth/slippage. If performance disturbances or capital outflows occur (such as significant net outflows of stablecoins, DEX depth significantly shallow), quickly reduce event positions to a safe line.
Funding and Risk: Establish hard rules for leverage peak and maximum drawdown thresholds; hedge using two-way options (straddles/wide straddles, calendar spreads) combined with spot hedging; clarify the risk control sequence: price trigger > volatility trigger > liquidity trigger > fundamental trigger, reducing positions step by step. When approval is granted, focus on tracking the synchrony and sustainability of 'passive funds/futures premium/borrowing rates' to avoid fragile upward movements driven solely by leverage; if denied, observe whether 'deep V' conditions (volume, IV, on-chain data synchronization recovery) emerge before considering entry. Remember throughout: the outcome of event trading depends more on position and rhythm rather than the correctness of opinions.
#SOL #Solana #ETF #EventTrading #Options #RiskManagement #OnChainData #Volatility
