4.28 Morning Thoughts The fifteen-minute level shows a clear downward trend, the hourly level has formed a short-term downward trend, and the daily level also shows a significant downward trend. Currently, the strength of the bulls is starting to weaken, while the strength of the bears is strong. Switching to the hourly perspective, the market is approaching the lower Bollinger Band, which clearly indicates that the downward trend is beginning to emerge, and the bearish strength is gradually accumulating. At this moment, we just need to patiently wait for the bears to exert further force and achieve a breakthrough. Bitcoin: Short near 93500-93000, looking down to around 91500-91000 Ethereum: Short near 1770, looking down to around 1700
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For ordinary people, there are 6 hurdles in wealth accumulation.
Saving 10,000, 100,000, and 300,000 are three small hurdles.
1,000,000, 3,000,000, and 30,000,000 are three big hurdles.
Very few people can manage to save 10,000 without changing their phone, 100,000 without buying a car, 300,000 without investing, 1,000,000 without lending money, 3,000,000 without engaging in reckless behavior, and 30,000,000 without leaking money.
Especially in the current special economic cycle, many people become increasingly anxious when they are not making money, and as a result, they lose money even faster.
Many people do not understand that the essence of wealth is preservation, not speculation. You may win a hundred times, but as long as you lose once, you will be back to zero. Therefore, learning to preserve wealth is the first step in financial management.
Many people, when they have a bit of money, immediately think about spending it. They desire to buy things that are roughly within their reach and are eager to experience the joy of spending money, without considering whether the item they are buying is a necessity. They feel compelled to spend their idle money on frivolous things.
Once they save up to 10,000, they want to change their phone; once they reach 100,000, they want to buy a spicy fish head to shield against the rain; once they save 300,000, they want to buy an entry-level BBA or invest in funds and stocks as assets. When they save up to 1,000,000, suddenly everyone around them starts asking to borrow money. Once they reach 3,000,000, they begin to indulge, either getting involved in personal escapades or dabbling in various circles. Upon reaching 30,000,000, some big brother will proactively offer to help them make big money, with returns calculated in multiples, only to eventually realize it’s a big trap.
Thus, the way ordinary people preserve wealth is not about not spending money or not investing, but about not spending when it’s unnecessary, not investing in what they don’t understand, and holding off when they just start to grasp something. Money that is not spent remains money; once it is spent, it may no longer be the same. Those capable of earning big money are a minority, and the chances of making big money are rare. Winning more often relies on accumulation rather than gambling. Therefore, for most ordinary people, wealth accumulation relies on preservation, creating incremental growth while maintaining the existing amount.
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Most people in the crypto space are gambling Rather than investing That's why there are scams, contracts, etc. When the market is good, they gamble big So you must gamble in the field you are good at; it’s not about whether you can play, but whether it’s worth gambling. I used to advise my fans not to engage in contracts, but now I think that’s ridiculous. Only by gambling yourself can you know if you are skilled or not. Moreover, blockchain is also a gamble, just in another form. I used to think it was impressive to help everyone make money together, but now I realize it’s important to let go of the urge to help; everyone must walk their own investment path. Even if you lead others to make money at some point, their understanding won’t improve, and they will eventually go back. Besides, investing itself is a gamble; you might follow your own heart, but as soon as others lose money, they will call you brainless. So it is inherently gambling, with no distinction of high or low value; most VC coins are scams. Those who come here, regardless of which prestigious school they graduated from or which institution they came from, are merely trying to play the market and take your money. In 2025, invest inwardly.
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The cryptocurrency bonanza is inevitably and rapidly disappearing, and retail investors are finding it hard to survive. Many people have this question in this round: Is this a bull market? Is there still a bull market? Is there still an altcoin season? 1. Bitcoin is entering a long-term slow bull market, 99% of altcoins will enter a chronic death phase. 2. There is an altcoin season, but it only occurs in specific areas, and it comes quickly and leaves quickly, with severe secondary differentiation. 3. As institutions enter, the cryptocurrency bonanza is rapidly disappearing, and the next round may have less speculative funding, no longer the realm of retail investors. 4. Cryptocurrencies have become severely correlated with U.S. stocks, similar to pre-market trading in U.S. stocks, where information is sensed in advance.
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Why is frequent trading doomed to fail? A chicken dealer buys a chicken for 10 yuan and sells it for 11 yuan. Buys another chicken for 12 yuan and sells it for 13 yuan. How much money did the chicken dealer make?
The answer is a loss of 1 yuan. Because if the chicken dealer buys a chicken for 10 yuan and waits until 13 yuan to sell it, he could make 3 yuan. But now he only made 2 yuan.
The chicken dealer buys a chicken for 10 yuan and sells it for 9 yuan. Buys another chicken for 8 yuan and sells it for 7 yuan. How much money did the chicken dealer lose?
The answer is a profit of 1 yuan. Because if the chicken dealer buys a chicken for 10 yuan and waits until 7 yuan to sell it, he would lose 3 yuan. But now he only lost 2 yuan.
So, frequent trading is not the problem; the problem is whether we are currently in an upward channel or a downward channel.
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Long-term investment is the ultimate destination. I've been in the crypto space for over a decade, starting with just a few thousand and now having made tens of millions in profit. Regardless of the model, one must have a trading plan; otherwise, no matter how you play, you'll end up losing more than you gain. The reason I say long-term is good is that I no longer need to be that aggressive, and I don't have to put myself in a position where I'm surrounded by difficulties. When I first entered the crypto space, my biggest thought was how to quickly double my investment, how to catch those coins with great potential that would allow me to quickly realize my wealth. I completely looked down on profits of ten or twenty percent because they seemed too small, and my investment was also small. This is the mindset of most retail investors and novices. But now it's different. I've passed that stage. For me, what I need to do is focus on the medium to long-term investments that you may overlook, aiming for ten or twenty percent returns. These are my standards and what I want to earn.
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90% of the retail investors are repeating this death loop, have you fallen for it? I discovered a brutal truth: when the market fluctuates, the trading software of most people plays out the same tragic script--
1. Floating profit of 5%: frantically refreshing the candlestick chart, afraid that the cooked duck
will fly away
2. Floating profit of 20%: starting to daydream about 'financial freedom'
3. Floating loss of 10%: opening community chats and frantically looking for 'positive news' to self-
console
4. Floating loss of 50%: uninstalling the trading software and entering a state of pretending to be dead after being liquidated: angrily scolding the market makers for harvesting retail investors, swearing never to touch this 'profit turning into loss, loss enduring until liquidation' death combination punch again, repeating almost every day. More frighteningly, many people are harvested and have no idea where the problem lies, only blaming the market itself.
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Why should we ban encrypted digital currencies? Because it's too easy to launder money. Encrypted digital currencies cannot be monitored by the state; if you have a good memory, you can even remember it all in your head, leaving no traces. For example, if a corrupt official embezzles hundreds of millions, what can be done? It's impossible to spend that much; where did all that money come from? Storing it in a bank would only expose oneself, buying gold? Ultimately, it still can't be spent. Bringing it abroad? Customs will tell you it's very risky! At this point, you can convert all your cash into Bitcoin, remember the wallet address and password in your head, and smoothly migrate abroad. Once overseas, you can convert the Bitcoin back. So why do countries define cryptocurrencies as illegal? Because this thing makes money laundering and asset transfer too easy.
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The Current State of the Crypto World: You can make money, but be careful of the bubbles. Let me give you a conclusion: In recent years, it is indeed possible to make money in the crypto world, but not everyone can profit. It's like participating in a lottery; some people win the grand prize, while others only receive disappointing winning notifications. After experiencing several rounds of explosive growth, the market has now entered a more rational but extremely volatile phase. The immense profits of the past few years have led many people to step into this pit, with some becoming overnight millionaires and others going bankrupt overnight. Therefore, the current crypto world is a place where both 'sudden wealth' and 'sudden losses' coexist.
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Huang Qifan: What is the essence of finance? (Simple and easy to understand) Some brothers asked me, what is the essence of finance in China? Here, I quote three sentences from Mayor Huang Qifan: First: Manage money for the rich, finance for the poor; Second: The core essence of financial enterprises lies in the three links of credit, leverage, and risk; one must grasp the balance of these three links; Third: The purpose of all financial activities is to serve the real economy.
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In the cryptocurrency world for many years, I have summarized several practical techniques for support levels to help you achieve stable profits!
1. Upward Trend: The Bull-Bear Game at Support Levels
✅ Valid Support: During a pullback, bearish candles are weaker than bullish candles, volume decreases near the support level, and after a bullish engulfing candle, the price rebounds. At this point, the support is valid, and you can add positions on dips. ❌ Trend Reversal: Frequent bearish candles and strong selling pressure, even if there is a short-term rebound, the price still breaks below the support line, indicating the end of the upward trend; you need to exit decisively.
2. Consolidation Phase: The True and False Breakthroughs of Support Levels
✅ Confirm Valid: After consolidation near the support level, a long bullish candle breaks through, confirming that the support is valid, and you can follow up to go long. ❌ Break Down: After consolidation, a long bearish candle breaks below the support, triggering panic selling, indicating that the price will continue to decline; you should immediately cut losses.
3. Key Break: Signals that Determine Success or Failure
🔻 Trend Reversal: The price breaks below the support line, turning from upward to downward. Breaking below secondary support in a major trend indicates the original trend has ended. 🔺 Bottom Fishing Opportunity: If the support is not broken and there is a rebound with high trading volume, you can buy; if there is no accompanying volume, exit early to avoid being trapped.
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When I first entered the crypto world, I thought contracts were just gambling. Until I survived with a 10% position rule and made my first pot of gold. Today, I will reveal my practical insights, especially the 3rd point, which 90% of people get wrong! 1. Survive first, then talk about making money. What is the biggest fear in crypto contracts? Liquidation! My iron rule: always split total funds into 10 parts, for example, only use 1000U to open a position for 1WU. Even if it liquidates, it’s just a 10% cost, and as long as the mindset doesn’t collapse, there’s still a chance to turn things around. 2. Add positions when in profit, cut losses when in loss. The truth about most people losing money: they run when they make money and hold on when they lose! My system is the opposite: In profit: only add positions with profits when floating profits exceed 20%, never touch the principal. In loss: stop loss immediately at -5%, never average down! (The favorite target of the manipulators is the retail investors who try to "lower the cost.") 3. Beware of the “shitcoin” trap. 90% of coins in the crypto world have no value, relying entirely on manipulators to pump and dump. My selection criteria: Only trade mainstream contracts, never be fooled by altcoins promising “get rich overnight”; For coins that suddenly surge more than 50%, I’d rather miss out than chase the high! Why do I dare to add positions during a crash? Actually, there’s a contrarian indicator hidden that allows me to profit during a major downturn.
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Forever, forever, forever don't have the thought of missing out. This is the first step for a trader to move from emotion-driven decisions to rational decisions, breaking free from being a retail investor.
The reason you missed out is that you cannot assess the current risk or cannot afford it.
If that's the case, giving up is the right choice. Because rushing into an opportunity with unclear risks will make it easier to lose money in the long run.
And if the market really reverses, it won't just give you one opportunity to get in. The only difference is the size of the position, but as long as the timing is right, making money won't be delayed.
On the contrary, once you start fearing missing out, the next step often leads to the retail investor's “chasing highs → getting trapped → bottom-fishing → escaping at the peak” death cycle.
By the way, retail investors who often talk about missing out, don't worry, when the price returns to the starting point, they still won't dare to get in.
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Recently, there have been many fast runs, but basically after hitting moonshot, it's also at its peak. Don't focus too much on the narrative, just look at the market makers, but be cautious about chasing highs.
bnbchain
Although no projects have emerged for a long time after the presale, who knows when the golden dog might arrive. When bnbchain comes back, I hope it will move away from the playstyle of cz's top sister.
sui
$sui has risen well, and a lot of funds are looking for projects to play with. Besides the two lending ones before, basically none of them were playable; I found a few AIs on sui, but no one is chatting, and they haven't had their TGE yet, so I'll wait a bit.
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The cryptocurrency market is essentially a zero-sum game. With all the regulations, retail investors still can't make money.
The only chance for retail investors is in a savage market, where bodies are scattered everywhere; otherwise, how can one stand out?
Bitcoin's early failures to reach zero countless times led to its glory. Now, with demands for regulation and transparency, it ultimately benefits institutions and big players, while retail investors remain in the dark and face the same fate of being harvested.
The only way for retail investors is to either perish together or get rich together.
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Understand these 10 rules, and you too can earn your desired little sun in the cryptocurrency world!
1. Never buy coins when the price is high; adopt the mindset that no matter how much it rises, it has nothing to do with you, as if the coin doesn’t exist.
2. Coins are divided into two types: coins that are at a buying point are good coins, and those that are not at a buying point are junk coins; coins at a major buying point are the best performing stocks. Patiently wait for these major level coins to become true blue-chip stocks; this is the correct mindset.
3. In fact, the most important thing in trading coins is the mindset. Many people clearly know it’s not a buying point but still can’t resist buying; this indicates a problem with their mindset. If this isn't solved, no theory will be useful.
4. Maintain a stable mindset; don’t have feelings towards any coin or price point. Only look at the signals provided by the market and have feelings towards buying and selling points.
5. If you make a mistake in operation, don’t blame the market; only look for your own reasons. Every mistake must be summarized immediately.
6. A mindset without technical support is a foolish mindset, showing no reaction. Only insights guided by wisdom can ensure a good mentality.
7. Why can't you make yourself like a wolf? This has nothing to do with the amount of capital. As long as you can buy at buying points and sell at selling points, that’s the most powerful.
8. Always stay calm while operating; with money, you can have anything. Don’t be afraid of not finding good coins.
9. In the market, any luck is only temporary, and the market will double make you pay back. When facing the market, if you don’t fundamentally change yourself, you can’t defeat the market. The anxious mindset to make money is a major taboo for traders; if you can’t control your own heart, greed, and desires, you can’t achieve long-term success in the market. The vast majority of investors are destined to be played by the market, and those who are played are trapped in the market, confused by themselves.
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In the market, the risk of being harvested arises from the combination of greed impulse, fear psychology, and cognitive blind spots. Operators often set traps in three steps: "Entice Greed - Create Panic - Exploit Blind Spots."
The key to breaking this cycle lies in facing reality and being wary of the temptation of getting rich quickly.
To avoid risks, one must cultivate predictive abilities, discard blind following, and always analyze and make decisions with a rational attitude in order to withstand the impact of market fluctuations.
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How can a newcomer in the cryptocurrency space grow from 500 USD to 5000 USD?
Those who have been following trends over the past two weeks should be quite happy, as market sentiment has improved and there are fewer panic messages.
However, it is during times like these that we must be cautious.
To put it bluntly, this is all part of the market makers' strategy! For those who haven't secured profits yet, be sure to set moving stop-loss and take-profit orders, so that your gains don’t slip away again.
The next few days may be a bit unstable, but the rebound trend might last for another week. Remember, it’s a rebound, not a reversal.
Absolutely avoid frequent trading! I know many seasoned traders who make hundreds of trades a day.
According to big data statistics, day trading usually ends in zero.
To cope with frequent stop-losses, many people develop the bad habit of stubbornly holding onto the market and increasing their positions against the trend.
Due to the strange phenomenon of rebounds after a stop-loss, increasing positions against the trend can sometimes turn losing trades into profitable ones.
But this method is essentially a path to destruction.
If you encounter one extreme market situation, a small loss could turn into an irreversible liquidation tragedy.
During this time, those who are shorting the market seem to have made some profits, but in reality, most have likely gone to zero.
Those who can stop-loss may end up feeling lonely in their trades. Those who can't stop-loss will either be stuck deeply or have already gone to zero.
Moreover, they have paid a high transaction fee! Statistics show that transaction fees usually account for 30% to 40% of the total trading cost.
Only when there is a clear cost advantage can high-frequency traders potentially make a profit.
The real enemy is not the unpredictability of the market, but the invisible hidden costs.
For example, transaction fees and slippage, which accumulate as trading frequency increases, ultimately become the last straw that breaks the trader's back.
In comparison, swing trading and trend trading are more sustainable.
They focus on the core direction of the market, rather than the noise of short-term fluctuations.
The wisdom of trading lies in simplifying complexity and eliminating restlessness.
Being overly obsessed with short-term fluctuations can trap one in trivial details, neglecting the essence of trading.
Choosing larger cycles and focusing on trends and swings is an important step in letting go of a short-sighted mentality.
Only by doing so can you step out of the chaos of the market and truly remain calm and move forward steadily.
As a seasoned cryptocurrency investor, I, Tu Fei, share my experiences and insights. Interested in the cryptocurrency space but don’t know where to start? Follow me and check my profile to achieve freedom in this bull market.