Overview of Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations for the First Half of 2025:
March 20: Probability of no change 98.0%, probability of a 25 basis point cut 2.0%;
May 8: Probability of no change 74.8%, probability of a 25 basis point cut 24.7%, probability of a 50 basis point cut 0.5%;
June 19: Probability of no change 22.5%, probability of a 25 basis point cut 59.8%, probability of a 50 basis point cut 17.4%.
Note: In the first half of this year, only the June rate cut is most promising, indicating that the first half will generally be a volatile market.
This Wednesday's Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting is expected to maintain the current rate, but the market usually reacts in advance, with a potential small move as early as tomorrow afternoon to evening.
The next interest rate hike in Japan may be on May 1, at which point it is advisable to prepare for significant volatility. After Japan's rate hike, there may be a deep drop followed by a slow recovery over a month. If the Federal Reserve resumes rate cuts, a deep V shape may re-emerge on the weekly chart.
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