币海拾贝者

The altcoin season does not seem to have fully unfolded yet, but there are signs that the market may be approaching it, and there is controversy.
- As of June 12, 2025, Bitcoin's market cap dominance is 63.2%, lower than previous highs, with some altcoins outperforming Bitcoin, but insufficient liquidity may delay the altcoin season.
- Investment advice: Opportunities and risks coexist; careful project selection is necessary, pay attention to the latest developments, and set stop-loss orders to reduce risks.

What is the altcoin season?
The altcoin season refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative coins (such as Ethereum and Ripple) experience significant price increases relative to Bitcoin, usually occurring when funds flow from Bitcoin to altcoins during the late stages of a bull market. Research shows that when Bitcoin's market cap dominance is below 50%, an altcoin season may erupt.

1. Overall Analysis The recent price trend of Bitcoin (BTC) shows that the market has entered an adjustment phase after experiencing a rising trend. The price is oscillating near the previous high of 111959.5, accompanied by signs of a pullback. Trading volume is gradually shrinking, indicating that market participants' sentiment is becoming cautious, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. From a technical perspective, although the short-term moving average (MA7) still maintains an upward trend, it has shown signs of a turn, combined with the top distribution pattern and evening star signal in the candlestick formation, indicating that short-term pullback pressure is increasing. Short-term Trend Outlook In the short term, the price of Bitcoin may continue to show a pullback or oscillation pattern. However, in key support areas (such as previous lows or near short-term moving averages), the possibility of price finding support is high. If the price effectively breaks below the current important support level (such as MA7 or previous lows), the market may accelerate downward, targeting a lower support area. Conversely, if the price stabilizes in the support area and holds key levels, the subsequent market may regain an upward trend and retest the previous high of 111959.5. Trading Suggestions Aggressive Investors: You may wait for the price to pull back to short-term support levels (near MA7 or previous lows) and show stabilization signals, then take long positions for a short term, targeting a retest of the high resistance at 111959.5. It is advised to set strict stop-loss orders, with stop-loss levels placed below the support area to control risk. Conservative Investors: It is recommended to wait and see for the market to clarify its direction before participating. Pay close attention to the price performance of the short-term moving average (MA7) and key support levels, as well as whether the trading volume is supportive. Short Position Opportunities: If the price breaks below key support levels and confirms the adjustment trend, you can attempt to take short positions, targeting a retest of lower support areas (such as MA30 or lower Fibonacci retracement levels). 2. Technical Analysis 1. Candlestick Patterns Evening Star: An evening star pattern has appeared near the recent high of 111959.5, which is a typical top reversal signal, suggesting increased short-term pullback pressure. Belt Hold Line: Some candlesticks show a belt hold line pattern, reflecting that selling power is gradually gaining the upper hand at high levels, and market sentiment is turning. Top Distribution: The price has formed a top distribution structure at high levels, further reinforcing the possibility of a short-term pullback. 2. Trading Volume Trading volume has expanded and then contracted during the price's rise and fall, indicating that market activity at high levels is decreasing, and investor sentiment is becoming cautious. The current shrinking trading volume indicates that the competition between bulls and bears is weakening, and the market may enter a consolidation phase before choosing a direction. If the price subsequently breaks through or falls below key levels, attention should be paid to whether the trading volume expands to confirm the validity of the trend. 3. Moving Average System (MA) Short-term Moving Average (MA7): The current price is still operating based on MA7, but MA7 has shown signs of a turn, and its short-term support role needs further observation. Long-term Moving Average (MA30): MA7 and MA30 previously formed a golden cross, indicating that the medium- to long-term trend is gradually strengthening, but a short-term pullback may cause the price to approach MA30 and test its support strength. Trend Outlook: If MA7 is lost, the price may further test MA30 or other key support levels; if MA7 stabilizes and regains an upward trend, the bullish trend is expected to continue. 4. Key Levels Resistance Level: 111959.5 (previous high), if broken, may open further upside potential, targeting the range of 115000-120000. Support Level: Short-term support is at MA7 (around 108000), with secondary support being previous lows (around 105000) and MA30 (around 103000). If MA30 is broken, it may further test the psychological level of 100000 or lower Fibonacci retracement levels (0.618 level, around 98000). 5. Other Indicators (Brief) RSI: The Relative Strength Index has fallen back after reaching overbought levels at high levels, currently sitting in the 60-70 range, showing that bullish momentum is weakening, but it has not yet entered oversold territory. MACD: The fast and slow lines are operating above the zero axis, but the red bars are shortening, indicating that upward momentum is diminishing, and caution is advised for the risk of a death cross. 3. Risk Warning Market Uncertainty: The global macroeconomic environment (such as Federal Reserve monetary policy and cryptocurrency market regulatory dynamics) may have a significant impact on Bitcoin prices, requiring close attention to related news. Technical Risks: If the price breaks below key support levels, it may trigger panic selling, leading to an expansion of short-term declines. Operational Suggestions: Regardless of long or short operations, strict stop-loss settings are required to control position risk and avoid significant losses due to market volatility. 4. Summary The current Bitcoin market is in an adjustment phase after an upward trend, with significant short-term pullback pressure, but the medium- to long-term trend remains bullish. Investors need to closely monitor the performance of key support levels (MA7, MA30, and previous lows) and combine trading volume with candlestick patterns to determine market direction. Aggressive investors may seek short-term opportunities, while conservative investors should wait for clear trend signals. Regardless of the strategy adopted, risk management is crucial.

“Severe overselling”, “Insufficient downward momentum”, “Entering a downward channel”, “Head and shoulders pattern”, “Long stagnation leads to a fall” - these terms sound professional, yet they often trap trading novices. Candlestick technical analysis seems scientific, but it hides the complexity and uncertainty of the market.

A real case
During a certain period in 2023, $BTC had a daily volatility of less than 5% for a whole week, the market was stagnant, and the volatility was extremely low. The Bollinger Bands narrowed, and the candlestick pattern appeared “healthy” and “safe”.
A top family office in Hong Kong, due to funding needs, decided to sell BTC that was allocated three years ago. On the last day of a certain week, the BTC price slowly rose by 5%, reaching the weekly high. The asset manager believed the time to sell had come, urgently convened a meeting, and instructed the team to sell 10,000 BTC.