The altcoin season does not seem to have fully unfolded yet, but there are signs that the market may be approaching it, and there is controversy.

- As of June 12, 2025, Bitcoin's market cap dominance is 63.2%, lower than previous highs, with some altcoins outperforming Bitcoin, but insufficient liquidity may delay the altcoin season.

- Investment advice: Opportunities and risks coexist; careful project selection is necessary, pay attention to the latest developments, and set stop-loss orders to reduce risks.


What is the altcoin season?

The altcoin season refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative coins (such as Ethereum and Ripple) experience significant price increases relative to Bitcoin, usually occurring when funds flow from Bitcoin to altcoins during the late stages of a bull market. Research shows that when Bitcoin's market cap dominance is below 50%, an altcoin season may erupt.


Current market conditions

As of June 12, 2025, Bitcoin's market cap dominance is 63.2%, an increase from 61% at the end of 2024, but there is a recent downward trend, which is lower than the previous peak of 65.38% (in May). The Altseason index may trigger the altcoin season when it approaches 75, but specific values could not be obtained, and market opinions are divided.


Expert predictions and risks

Some analysts predict that June may welcome the altcoin season, but others believe that it may be delayed until 2028 due to insufficient liquidity and Federal Reserve policies. Investors should be cautious of high speculative risks and focus on innovative projects like SUI, controlling their positions.

A detailed analysis of the altcoin season on June 12, 2025


Introduction

The altcoin season, also known as 'altcoin season', is a key phase in the cryptocurrency market cycle, usually characterized by the flow of funds from Bitcoin (BTC) to other altcoins during the late stages of a bull market. This phenomenon has repeatedly occurred in past bull markets, such as the altcoin seasons of 2017 and 2021, which brought high returns but also high risks. On June 12, 2025, based on the latest market data and analysis, we explore the definition, current status, and future outlook of the altcoin season.


What is the altcoin season?

The altcoin season refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative coins significantly increase in price relative to Bitcoin. Research indicates that this phase usually occurs in the middle to late stages of a bull market, with the flow of funds as follows:

1. Bitcoin prices rise first, attracting initial capital inflow.

2. Ethereum (ETH) becomes the market focus, outperforming Bitcoin.

3. The top 20 mainstream altcoins begin to rise.

4. Mid-cap and highly speculative altcoins (such as MEME coins and worthless coins) enter a rapid rise phase, and market sentiment is high.


The typical characteristics of this cycle include:

- Bitcoin's market cap dominance (BTC Dominance) declines: Usually when it falls below 50%, an altcoin season may erupt.

- The Altseason index (an indicator measuring the performance of alternative coins) reaches above 75, indicating that the market enters the climax of the altcoin season.


Historical cases show that the altcoin season from December 2017 to January 2018 was driven by ICO projects, with a surge in demand for Ethereum, while Bitcoin quickly fell after reaching its peak. The altcoin season of 2021, on the other hand, was driven more by DeFi projects (such as UNI, SUSHI) and emerging projects like Polkadot, with the market being relatively more stable.


Current market conditions (June 12, 2025)

As of June 12, 2025, the market data is as follows:

- Total cryptocurrency market cap: $3.8 trillion, 24-hour change 0.53%, year-on-year increase of 135.66%.

- Bitcoin's market cap: $2 trillion, Bitcoin's market cap dominance is 63.2% (from CoinMarketCap), an increase from 61% at the end of 2024, but there is a recent downward trend, lower than the previous peak of 65.38% (in May).

- Stablecoin market cap: $200 billion, accounting for 5.38% of the total market cap.

- Altseason index: Specific values could not be obtained, but based on historical data, when close to 75, the altcoin season may begin. In the past 90 days, 35 of the top 50 cryptocurrencies outperformed Bitcoin (70% share), indicating that some altcoins performed excellently.

- High point analysis: Among the top 50 tokens, 11 have reached all-time highs, including XRP, OM, WBT, TRX, RENDER, LEO, BTC, SOL, BNB, etc. (some of which are new coins for this cycle).


There are divergent views among market participants:

- Optimistic view: Some analysts believe that there are already opportunities in altcoins in Q1 2025, especially for low market cap and AI-related projects. Grayscale released a report in January 2025, expressing an optimistic attitude towards altcoins in Q1 2025, evaluating a batch of potential projects. CoinDesk predicted on May 15 that a comprehensive altcoin season might arrive in June, with BTC Dominance under pressure. BeInCrypto reported on June 4 that some experts believe the altcoin season is delayed but not over.

- Pessimistic view: Some market observers believe that the likelihood of an altcoin season in 2025 is low, mainly due to the following reasons:

- Insufficient liquidity: This is the first time in history that the Bitcoin halving cycle coincides with the Federal Reserve's tightening policy, making it difficult for small-cap stocks and altcoins to secure adequate funding support.

Historical data and future outlook

Historical data shows that during the altcoin seasons of 2017 and 2021, the market cap of alternative coins rose from $200 billion to $1.6 trillion (an 8-fold increase). If a similar situation occurs in 2025, the market cap of alternative coins could reach $12 trillion, assuming Bitcoin's market cap dominance drops to 40%, the total market cap could reach $19 trillion (requiring an additional $15 trillion in liquidity). However, market analysis points out that not all altcoins can perform as excellently as in 2021, especially projects with high FDV (fully diluted market value) like ARB, which require substantial funding support to maintain their upward trend.


Risks and investment advice

The altcoin season is usually accompanied by high speculation and bubble risk. Historical experience shows that the altcoin season often marks the beginning of market adjustments or bear markets. In the second half of 2025, the market may enter an adjustment period, and investors should pay attention to the following points:

- Stock selection strategy: Prioritize innovative projects (such as SUI) and undervalued traditional altcoins (such as XRP, XLM, TRX), avoiding chasing high-priced worthless coins.

- Risk management: Set stop-loss orders, control positions, and avoid significant losses due to market fluctuations.

- Market dynamics: Closely monitor the changes in Bitcoin's market cap dominance and the Altseason index to determine the timing of the altcoin season's initiation.

Conclusion

As of June 12, 2025, the altcoin season has not yet fully unfolded, but there are signs that the market may be approaching it. Bitcoin's market capitalization dominance is 63.2%, a decrease from earlier periods, with some altcoins performing better than Bitcoin. However, insufficient liquidity and tightening monetary policy may suppress their scale and duration. Investors should approach with caution, pay attention to market dynamics, and choose investment strategies based on their risk tolerance.#山寨币热点 #山寨季将持续多久？ #BTC


The following is a summary table of current market indicators: