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#BinancePizza BTC yesterday closed with a small bearish candlestick and a doji, and the upward movement faced resistance again. We chose to liquidate our positions and observe yesterday, but this is just a strategic suggestion; specific actions should be based on individual risk preferences.

Currently, the price is still in a high-level consolidation phase, and it may not quickly turn to decline in the short term, but such fluctuations often cause more anxiety than waiting for a rise at the bottom—markets always create an illusion of 'not being able to fall, ready to break through at any moment,' tempting investors to act frequently.

To confirm whether this pessimistic sentiment exists only in the futures market, let's take a look at the situation in the options market. In options trading, there is a skewness indicator that can reflect market sentiment. When traders are worried about a significant price drop, they buy a large amount of put options, causing the price of put options to rise, and the skewness indicator will be above 5%; when the market is very bullish, the indicator will drop below -5%. $BTC

In a normal market environment, the monthly futures price of Bitcoin is usually 5% to 15% higher than the spot price to cover the costs of a longer settlement period, a ratio known as futures premium.

However, since the Bitcoin price encountered resistance at $110,000 on June 12, the futures premium has remained below normal levels. When the Bitcoin price fell to $100,450 on June 5, the situation regarding the futures premium further deteriorated compared to two weeks earlier.

The price of Bitcoin at 34,894,882,846 is only 8% away from the historical high of 103,300 USD, which should typically fill the market with optimism. However, strangely, investors who specialize in Bitcoin derivatives trading have become cautious. These traders, who usually engage in leveraged futures trading and exhibit significant emotional fluctuations, are now generally lacking optimistic expectations, which seems somewhat unusual at this time.

$BTC short-term fluctuations, the market shows mixed results; in the past 24 hours, $9023.42 million were liquidated, primarily long positions; the small coin $FLY leads the market, with $DUPE, $AGT, and $MOBLE ranking in the top for holding gains in the 4H dimension.

On Thursday, the U.S. financial markets are closed, with U.S. stock futures and European stocks both declining; Nasdaq 100 futures fell over 1%, and Brent crude rose over 3% during trading.

In the liquidation map, based on the current 10,636.2 USDT, if it drops by a thousand points to around 10,530.0, the cumulative liquidation amount for long positions exceeds $1.97 billion. If it rises by a thousand points to around 10,730.0, the cumulative liquidation amount for short positions exceeds $1.44 billion. The liquidation amount for long positions far exceeds that for short positions, so it is recommended to reasonably control leverage ratios to avoid triggering large-scale liquidations during market fluctuations.

In the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflows amounted to $1 billion, outflows were $1.06 billion, resulting in a net outflow of $60 million.

$BTC

#波段交易策略 数据显示，史上最大密码泄露事件刚刚得到确认——苹果、Facebook、谷歌、Telegram 等主要平台的 160 亿个登录凭证被泄露。

⚫此次泄露的数据包括 30 个数据集，每个数据集包含数千万到超过 35 亿条记录——几乎所有记录都是从未公开过的

⚫消息人士指出，多个信息窃取恶意软件操作是造成这一事件的原因

⚫泄露的凭证涵盖社交媒体、VPN、开发者工具，甚至政府平台

⚫这些记录包含结构化的 URL、登录名和密码，因此很容易成为网络钓鱼和帐户接管的目标

⚫专家警告称，这是“大规模、可用作武器的新鲜情报”，而非回收数据

#X超级应用转型 1、Fireblocks报告：全球49%机构已使用稳定币进行支付

2、数字银行巨头Revolut正探索自有稳定币发行计划

3、 苹果、谷歌等服务海量登录凭证遭泄露，或对加密货币持有者造成影响

4、比特币网络交易活动已降至18个月以来最低水平

5、6月贝莱德已买入价值超7.5亿美元的ETH

6、美联储7月维持不变的概率为91.7%

7、Semler Scientific任命比特币策略总监,目标在2025年底前持有至少1万枚BTC

The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 89.7%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 10.3%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 31.7%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 61.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 6.7%. $USDC

#加密概念美股 1.FalconX plans to launch an IPO in 2025 and has begun preliminary discussions

2. The Ohio House of Representatives passed a bill to exempt Bitcoin payments under $200 from taxes

3. Japanese companies: Trump stepped down after 4 years, there is no need to change long-term investment plans for this

4. Powell: The Federal Reserve's forecast uncertainty is exceptionally high, and the short-term path is more indicative

5. Ethena Labs and Securitize achieve 24/7 atomic swaps for BlackRock's tokenized fund BUIDL and the USDtb stablecoin

In terms of market dynamics, the three major U.S. stock indexes generally closed lower, and cryptocurrency concept stocks performed weakly, with TRX concept stock SRM falling by 15.9%. It is worth noting that the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS stablecoin regulation bill this morning, which established a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. However, the market reaction was relatively muted, and related concept stocks such as Circle performed flat. Stablecoin concept tokens like ENA, MKR, and HUMA also fell with the broader market, indicating that the market may have already priced in this positive news. $USDC

#我的交易风格 Meanwhile, as the conflict between Israel and Iran escalates, global market concerns about crude oil supply continue to rise. According to ABC News, U.S. officials state that the next 24 to 48 hours will be crucial in determining whether the Israel-Iran issue can be resolved through diplomatic means, or if Trump will take military action. The U.S. has increased military assets in the Middle East, including aircraft carriers, destroyers, and other defensive deployments. However, some analysts point out that the market's calm reaction under the tense situation in the Middle East may be due to the 'TACO' factor, meaning the market has developed an 'immunity' to Trump's policies, and investors are not overly pricing in the worst possible developments.

Matthew Ryan, the head of market strategy at financial services company Ebury, stated that although two interest rate cuts within the year are still the baseline expectation for most policymakers, a few officials may prefer to cut rates only once, which will affect market sentiment. If the dot plot shows only one rate cut, or if Powell indicates after the meeting that there is no urgency to cut rates, the dollar may strengthen as a result. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to implement its first rate cut in 2025 in September.

#美联储FOMC会议 First, there is a clear trend in inflation data: when the inflation data shows a consistent downward trend for 2-3 consecutive months, the market can form a 99% consensus on rate cuts. As long as the inflation data does not clearly surrender, market fluctuations will continue.

Next is a clear signal of a shift from the Federal Reserve: when the Fed Chairman gives a relatively clear timeline for rate cuts during a speech or in the dot plot. The upcoming FOMC meetings in the next few months (especially in September) are crucial. Given the current patience of the market, if there is no rate cut in September, there is a high probability of a deeper correction before continuing to fluctuate.

Finally, there is the employment market data: as long as it weakens, the Federal Reserve will have sufficient reasons to cut rates immediately.

Israel launched airstrikes on Iran's capital Tehran at 22:50 UTC on Thursday. After the initial strike news broke, the price of Bitcoin only dropped by 3%, remaining around $105,000 since the conflict began.

Amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs, the U.S. economy, and the increasing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded inflows for five consecutive days this week.

$BTC

#越南加密政策 Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor hinted that the company will buy more Bitcoin when traditional financial markets open on Monday. Strategy co-founder Michael Saylor released a Bitcoin chart indicating that the company is about to purchase BTC, despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which could shake global financial markets when they open on Monday.

The company’s most recent purchase of Bitcoin occurred on June 9, when it acquired a relatively small amount of 1,045 BTC worth approximately $110 million, bringing Strategy's total holdings to 582,000 BTC.

Although the total market capitalization has dropped by 6% (from $3.4 trillion to $3.2 trillion), BTC.D increased from 63.8% to 64.7%, reflecting that investors are more inclined to sell altcoins rather than Bitcoin, reinforcing Bitcoin's attribute as a "safe-haven asset."

The altcoin/Bitcoin ratio continues to decline: from 0.34 in early May to 0.32, analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts it may further drop to 0.25, indicating a delay in the start of altcoin season.

$BTC

On June 13, #特朗普比特币金库 6, Israel launched a military strike against Iran codenamed "Operation Lion's Strength", targeting nuclear facilities and military bases. This move triggered a surge in global risk-averse sentiment, leading to a single-day evaporation of over $16 billion in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted from $106,000 to $102,600 (a decline of 2.3%), Ethereum (ETH) fell to $2,436, and Solana (SOL) dipped to $143.

Where is the true 'bottom' of #卡尔达诺稳定币提案 ? If Iran does not make substantial large-scale retaliatory actions within the next 24-48 hours, the situation may temporarily cool down, and market panic may ease. That will be a more prudent time to assess how deep the 'pit' is and whether it is worth jumping in.
● Nuclear risk is the biggest 'black swan': Once the conflict escalates and reaches a nuclear red line, the market will not be 'digging a pit' but rather experiencing a 'collapse.' Although this is a low-probability event, it must be taken into consideration.

#卡尔达诺稳定币提案 Where is the real 'bottom'? If Iran does not make a substantial large-scale counterattack within the next 24-48 hours, the situation may temporarily de-escalate, and market panic may ease. Only then will it be a more prudent time to assess how deep the 'pit' is and whether it's worth jumping in.

● Nuclear risk is the biggest 'black swan': Once the conflict escalates and crosses the nuclear red line, the market will no longer be 'digging a pit', but rather experiencing a 'collapse'. While this is a low-probability event, it must be taken into account.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) quickly "certified" on social media: This is a "preemptive, precise, joint strike"! Dozens of fighter jets roared out, directly targeting the critical points of Iran's nuclear program—key nuclear facilities such as Fordow and Natanz.

To put it bluntly, Israel has taken action, and right from the start, it is aimed at the opponent's most crucial "nuclear capability"! The goal is clear: to "eliminate" Iran's ambitions of approaching the threshold of nuclear weapons.

$ADA