#美联储FOMC会议 First, there is a clear trend in inflation data: when the inflation data shows a consistent downward trend for 2-3 consecutive months, the market can form a 99% consensus on rate cuts. As long as the inflation data does not clearly surrender, market fluctuations will continue.

Next is a clear signal of a shift from the Federal Reserve: when the Fed Chairman gives a relatively clear timeline for rate cuts during a speech or in the dot plot. The upcoming FOMC meetings in the next few months (especially in September) are crucial. Given the current patience of the market, if there is no rate cut in September, there is a high probability of a deeper correction before continuing to fluctuate.

Finally, there is the employment market data: as long as it weakens, the Federal Reserve will have sufficient reasons to cut rates immediately.