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Bitcoin has suddenly faced a double major negative situation, and yesterday's sharp decline left the previously excited bulls completely stunned.
However, I believe that the recent large fluctuations in Bitcoin present a super opportunity for contract trading. If operated correctly in the last two days, the contract account can multiply tenfold.
So today, let's focus on explaining this great trading opportunity. How should we operate? Actually, it's very simple: if there is a continued sharp decline today and tomorrow, go all in on buying. If it rises again next week, go all in on selling. This may seem like a very correct but useless statement, but once I clarify the technical characteristics of support and resistance, everyone will indeed feel it is a great trading opportunity. Now, this is the 4-hour trend of Bitcoin. Although it seems that the current bullish trend is still stable, it is actually hiding dangers; the struggle between bulls and bears is about to enter the final life-and-death stage. Currently, Bitcoin's first line of defense at the hourly level is experiencing fluctuations. As bulls, we need to closely observe two points tonight.
First, will there be a small double bottom here, making the support effective? Second, a bottom divergence has appeared at the 15-minute level, so we will see if this bottom divergence can steadily break through the trend line's resistance and create a small bullish trend. Now is a short-term opportunity to make a small buy; we can use the double bottom support as a stop-loss level to test it once. However, if luck is not on our side and the stop-loss is hit tonight, that's okay; there will be larger buying opportunities below. This is the two solid defenses of the 4-hour bullish level. If it really drops to this level in the next two days, everyone should not hesitate to buy aggressively; there will definitely be a significant rebound. Next week, if it just rises a bit, your contract account will double, and I’m not exaggerating. Everyone is welcome to come back next week to see if I’m right. vvvvv bityangming
However, I believe that the recent large fluctuations in Bitcoin present a super opportunity for contract trading. If operated correctly in the last two days, the contract account can multiply tenfold.
So today, let's focus on explaining this great trading opportunity. How should we operate? Actually, it's very simple: if there is a continued sharp decline today and tomorrow, go all in on buying. If it rises again next week, go all in on selling. This may seem like a very correct but useless statement, but once I clarify the technical characteristics of support and resistance, everyone will indeed feel it is a great trading opportunity. Now, this is the 4-hour trend of Bitcoin. Although it seems that the current bullish trend is still stable, it is actually hiding dangers; the struggle between bulls and bears is about to enter the final life-and-death stage. Currently, Bitcoin's first line of defense at the hourly level is experiencing fluctuations. As bulls, we need to closely observe two points tonight.
First, will there be a small double bottom here, making the support effective? Second, a bottom divergence has appeared at the 15-minute level, so we will see if this bottom divergence can steadily break through the trend line's resistance and create a small bullish trend. Now is a short-term opportunity to make a small buy; we can use the double bottom support as a stop-loss level to test it once. However, if luck is not on our side and the stop-loss is hit tonight, that's okay; there will be larger buying opportunities below. This is the two solid defenses of the 4-hour bullish level. If it really drops to this level in the next two days, everyone should not hesitate to buy aggressively; there will definitely be a significant rebound. Next week, if it just rises a bit, your contract account will double, and I’m not exaggerating. Everyone is welcome to come back next week to see if I’m right. vvvvv bityangming
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Pancake Daily Trading Strategy
Resistance Range: 109500-110000
👉Support Range: 104800-105300 Bitcoin's sudden drop lured in many traders, taking advantage of news (Trump's tariffs) to hunt down long positions in the weekend market. The strategy focuses on a long-short game, primarily aiming for high shorts and low longs. However, as the daily line closes, the main direction is currently focused on high shorts. Intra-day: go long at support, short at resistance (at any time, if there's a signal for a position, it's worth testing, like yesterday's Ethereum, which lured in longs at a high, precisely resisted around 2740, and then retraced with a nearly 9% drop.) vvvvv
bityangming
Resistance Range: 109500-110000
👉Support Range: 104800-105300 Bitcoin's sudden drop lured in many traders, taking advantage of news (Trump's tariffs) to hunt down long positions in the weekend market. The strategy focuses on a long-short game, primarily aiming for high shorts and low longs. However, as the daily line closes, the main direction is currently focused on high shorts. Intra-day: go long at support, short at resistance (at any time, if there's a signal for a position, it's worth testing, like yesterday's Ethereum, which lured in longs at a high, precisely resisted around 2740, and then retraced with a nearly 9% drop.) vvvvv
bityangming
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It's time to start washing the plate.
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As of now, the overall trend of Bitcoin is still in this kind of volatile market. Although it is in a volatile market, it broke the historical high in the early morning, reaching around 112,000. Bitcoin is continuously hitting new highs, with institutions aggressively buying and spot ETFs continuing to flow in. So, how crazy will Bitcoin get?
Currently, Bitcoin continues to rise. If it is in a high-level sideways volatility, can Ethereum and the three altcoins enter the market now? Or can we still chase the highs? Let's take a look at the overall trend direction of the current cryptocurrency market.
First, let's look at Bitcoin at the moment. From the perspective of the current large time structure, in terms of daily and weekly trends. After breaking the historical high of 110,000, the space above Bitcoin is unimaginable. After Bitcoin broke 110,000, the previous high point, which was previously a resistance, has now turned into a support, a swap of satisfaction. The current pullback is an opportunity for our first wave of entry, and now what positions can we see above Bitcoin? From the daily perspective, we can see that the daily level is in an upward channel. The bottom has not seen a significant breakthrough or breakdown, maintaining a volatile upward trend. Therefore, the current pullback of Bitcoin is an opportunity for us, and considering the resistance at the upper track of the upward channel, we can also enter at the middle track or lower track. Currently, we can see that when at the middle track, we have repeatedly laid out our positions. This is based on a previous point, considering the high pullback, we can enter with a low buy approach. Now continuously breaking through the highest position, we can take a simple look. Roughly, it is around 114,000. So if it reaches this point during the day, we can test its high entry point. This point can only be used once, after all, if this position breaks the upper track of the upward channel, then the space above Bitcoin is unimaginable. This is about Bitcoin from the perspective of the larger cycle, daily level, and weekly level.
Currently, Bitcoin continues to rise. If it is in a high-level sideways volatility, can Ethereum and the three altcoins enter the market now? Or can we still chase the highs? Let's take a look at the overall trend direction of the current cryptocurrency market.
First, let's look at Bitcoin at the moment. From the perspective of the current large time structure, in terms of daily and weekly trends. After breaking the historical high of 110,000, the space above Bitcoin is unimaginable. After Bitcoin broke 110,000, the previous high point, which was previously a resistance, has now turned into a support, a swap of satisfaction. The current pullback is an opportunity for our first wave of entry, and now what positions can we see above Bitcoin? From the daily perspective, we can see that the daily level is in an upward channel. The bottom has not seen a significant breakthrough or breakdown, maintaining a volatile upward trend. Therefore, the current pullback of Bitcoin is an opportunity for us, and considering the resistance at the upper track of the upward channel, we can also enter at the middle track or lower track. Currently, we can see that when at the middle track, we have repeatedly laid out our positions. This is based on a previous point, considering the high pullback, we can enter with a low buy approach. Now continuously breaking through the highest position, we can take a simple look. Roughly, it is around 114,000. So if it reaches this point during the day, we can test its high entry point. This point can only be used once, after all, if this position breaks the upper track of the upward channel, then the space above Bitcoin is unimaginable. This is about Bitcoin from the perspective of the larger cycle, daily level, and weekly level.
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Currently, the trend of Bitcoin presents a complex and critical situation. The price is continuously rising against the divergence, successfully closing at a new high on the daily chart, showing strong bullish momentum, and overall still operating within an upward channel. As long as it does not effectively break below the lower edge of the channel, it is not advisable to blindly short. However, the supply area ahead has significant resistance, with $108,500 becoming a key level; once breached, it is highly likely to refresh the historical high.
From the monthly perspective, Bitcoin has closed up for two consecutive months, and the dynamic bullish candlestick pattern is strong, indicating that there is still potential to hit higher points next month. The pressure level at $114,000 on the monthly chart deserves special attention. However, it is important to be cautious as the 3-day line indicator has entered the overbought zone, increasing the risk of a short-term pullback. Although the bulls are dominant, the market is not a smooth ride. Given the current situation, trading should remain cautious and flexible. Before the price breaks through the strong resistance at $108,500, it is advisable for investors to avoid blindly chasing long positions to guard against pullback risks. In the early session, focus on the pullback trend; aggressive traders may consider lightly positioning short near $107,000, waiting for a price pullback. If the price pulls back to around $105,000 and stabilizes, it may be appropriate to consider going long, looking towards higher price levels. If it fails to effectively stabilize at this support level, there are other key support points below at $104,200 and $103,000, which can be adjusted based on the actual situation. If the price subsequently breaks new highs, be cautious of a double top pattern forming; once the double top is established, the market may face significant downward pressure in the second half of the year. At this time, it is important to take profits and stop losses promptly to avoid potential risks.
During this period leading up to the BTC summit, the overall market volatility is small. Although there is a lack of key data, several Federal Reserve officials have clearly expressed a tendency not to adjust monetary policy in the short term, suggesting that the current interest rates may remain unchanged in June and even July.
Additionally, the stablecoin bill and the 'Beautiful Big Bill' have sparked heated discussions, but they have yet to materialize, leading to uncertainty. In terms of BTC, the price once surged to $107,300, just a step away from the historical high. Although macro data is scarce, the market focus has shifted to the China-US trade situation, the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war, and possible sudden policy actions from Trump. From on-chain data, the short-term turnover rate has clearly increased, especially as weekend bottom-fishing investors have started to reduce their positions, with short-term funds still dominating current trading.
From the monthly perspective, Bitcoin has closed up for two consecutive months, and the dynamic bullish candlestick pattern is strong, indicating that there is still potential to hit higher points next month. The pressure level at $114,000 on the monthly chart deserves special attention. However, it is important to be cautious as the 3-day line indicator has entered the overbought zone, increasing the risk of a short-term pullback. Although the bulls are dominant, the market is not a smooth ride. Given the current situation, trading should remain cautious and flexible. Before the price breaks through the strong resistance at $108,500, it is advisable for investors to avoid blindly chasing long positions to guard against pullback risks. In the early session, focus on the pullback trend; aggressive traders may consider lightly positioning short near $107,000, waiting for a price pullback. If the price pulls back to around $105,000 and stabilizes, it may be appropriate to consider going long, looking towards higher price levels. If it fails to effectively stabilize at this support level, there are other key support points below at $104,200 and $103,000, which can be adjusted based on the actual situation. If the price subsequently breaks new highs, be cautious of a double top pattern forming; once the double top is established, the market may face significant downward pressure in the second half of the year. At this time, it is important to take profits and stop losses promptly to avoid potential risks.
During this period leading up to the BTC summit, the overall market volatility is small. Although there is a lack of key data, several Federal Reserve officials have clearly expressed a tendency not to adjust monetary policy in the short term, suggesting that the current interest rates may remain unchanged in June and even July.
Additionally, the stablecoin bill and the 'Beautiful Big Bill' have sparked heated discussions, but they have yet to materialize, leading to uncertainty. In terms of BTC, the price once surged to $107,300, just a step away from the historical high. Although macro data is scarce, the market focus has shifted to the China-US trade situation, the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war, and possible sudden policy actions from Trump. From on-chain data, the short-term turnover rate has clearly increased, especially as weekend bottom-fishing investors have started to reduce their positions, with short-term funds still dominating current trading.
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The double top pattern requires waiting for the neckline to break before entering the market to avoid premature entry (it may form a consolidation rather than a reversal).
The double top is more effective after a long-term uptrend, while the short-term pattern may be a consolidation. The volume at the right peak shrinks, and when it breaks, the volume increases, enhancing the credibility of the signal. Sometimes the price may pull back to the neckline before falling again, so it is necessary to combine it with other indicators to avoid premature entry (it may form a consolidation rather than a reversal).
The double top is more effective after a long-term uptrend, while the short-term pattern may be a consolidation. The volume at the right peak shrinks, and when it breaks, the volume increases, enhancing the credibility of the signal. Sometimes the price may pull back to the neckline before falling again, so it is necessary to combine it with other indicators to avoid premature entry (it may form a consolidation rather than a reversal).
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The trend of the pancake yesterday was quite volatile, first experiencing a significant drop followed by a substantial rebound. Now, it has basically recovered all the losses from yesterday morning. Currently, it has encountered resistance at yesterday's high point and has started to oscillate downwards. Will it be able to continue breaking through the previous high points and rise significantly this afternoon and evening? Or will it continue to decline sharply and test the lows again? In yesterday's video, we clearly advised everyone not to fear adjustments, to buy when prices drop, and to boldly go long at support levels. Last night at 8:45, Bitcoin formed a clear double bottom pattern on the hourly chart. Our group, led by Dan vvvvv bityangming, accurately bottomed out and went long at 8:45, which was essentially a money-making opportunity. Friends in the group once again capitalized on this and collectively took profits at the high point this morning.
So, what should we do this afternoon and evening? Should we continue to wait for opportunities to go long, or immediately switch to shorting? Hello everyone, today's operational strategy this afternoon is actually very simple. Although there has been a pullback at the previous high on the hourly chart, this pullback is quite normal. We need to look at yesterday's trend; the bulls remain relatively strong, and the four-hour chart has already repaired the divergence pressure that occurred yesterday. Therefore, this afternoon and evening, there are basically two possible trends. The first is a slight oscillation and pullback followed by stabilization, then gathering strength to break through again in the evening. However, for a breakthrough to happen tonight, it will need to be supported by a rise in the U.S. stock market this evening. The second trend would be a deeper pullback, testing the support of yesterday's trend line once again. This afternoon, we should closely observe the stabilization of smaller movements during the pullback. For example, if we see a double bottom or a bottom divergence pattern on the 15-minute chart this afternoon, then we can continue to go long. Conversely, if there is continuous downward pressure this afternoon, the bulls can temporarily hold back and continue to observe, patiently waiting for the right opportunity.
So, what should we do this afternoon and evening? Should we continue to wait for opportunities to go long, or immediately switch to shorting? Hello everyone, today's operational strategy this afternoon is actually very simple. Although there has been a pullback at the previous high on the hourly chart, this pullback is quite normal. We need to look at yesterday's trend; the bulls remain relatively strong, and the four-hour chart has already repaired the divergence pressure that occurred yesterday. Therefore, this afternoon and evening, there are basically two possible trends. The first is a slight oscillation and pullback followed by stabilization, then gathering strength to break through again in the evening. However, for a breakthrough to happen tonight, it will need to be supported by a rise in the U.S. stock market this evening. The second trend would be a deeper pullback, testing the support of yesterday's trend line once again. This afternoon, we should closely observe the stabilization of smaller movements during the pullback. For example, if we see a double bottom or a bottom divergence pattern on the 15-minute chart this afternoon, then we can continue to go long. Conversely, if there is continuous downward pressure this afternoon, the bulls can temporarily hold back and continue to observe, patiently waiting for the right opportunity.
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The pancake formed an ascending triangle pattern on the 2-hour chart.
Breaking through the resistance area may push the price towards the target levels of 105,700 and 107,500.
Breaking through the resistance area may push the price towards the target levels of 105,700 and 107,500.
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The large pancake has once again experienced continuous fluctuations and is about to choose a direction for the market shift. Once this shift occurs, it will lead to a significant market trend. So the biggest question now is whether the shift will go upwards or downwards? I will provide an accurate answer. Let's start with the conclusion: this shift will be very complex, unlike the last time when we could directly point to a market trend of ten thousand points. We must analyze all the complex situations and prepare counter-strategies in advance so that we can respond calmly to this major market trend. This time, we will develop two sets of operational strategies from the perspectives of bulls and bears. We will be impartial, suitable for all traders to reference. First, from the bullish perspective, everyone certainly hopes for an upward shift. Currently, time is the biggest enemy for the bulls, meaning the longer it drags on, the less favorable it is for the bulls. Why do I say this? From the perspective of Chan theory, the one-hour level is currently constructing the second central point. If it can break upwards immediately, then the second central point, compared to the first, does not belong to the same level of central point, making it more conducive to reaching a higher upward level. If it takes another three days to break upwards, then divergence can occur at any time, meaning the probability of a false breakout increases. Because the rise after two central points of the same level can lead to divergence at any moment, this would be a selling point for the bulls. To summarize the bullish strategy: the earlier it happens, the more favorable it is for the continuation of the upward trend. If it first breaks down below the central point, the bulls can temporarily reduce their positions. A preliminary breakdown is not a bad thing; from the perspective of central point construction, there is always a chance to form a false breakdown and then break upwards again. After the bulls reduce their positions, they can actively capture the end point of the decline to replenish their bullish positions. As for the short-selling strategy, there is actually only one optimal position, which is the false breakout formed after several days of fluctuations. This means that this wave of upward movement has completely ended, and that is the best time for short positions to enter.
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Teacher Yua Mikami has issued coins. This is definitely a ticket to the fan festival. Go, go, go,#memesection hot spots#Whenwill the copycat season come?
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The market is experiencing continuous fluctuations at high levels, waiting for interest rate cuts to take off. Therefore, currently there is pressure to go up, and when it goes down, it gets picked up. Back and forth, day after day. If you hold a strong subjective view of bullish or bearish, you are easily countered. Following the rhythm of the market is the best strategy. The four-hour level is shrinking to its extreme.
For Bitcoin, short-term pressure is at 95,500, with support at 93,450.
For Ethereum, short-term pressure is at 1,856, with support at 1,720.
Suggestion: Pay attention to support and pressure levels. Breakthroughs can be followed with small positions; if it doesn't break, then it’s pressure to short and support to go long. Overall, the ETF inflow into Bitcoin is relatively high, and the market is biased towards going long. Currently, the technical aspect is facing a correction, and adjustments can sometimes be completed within the day. Do not hold positions; ensure proper risk control. Set stop-loss within 500 points.
For Bitcoin, short-term pressure is at 95,500, with support at 93,450.
For Ethereum, short-term pressure is at 1,856, with support at 1,720.
Suggestion: Pay attention to support and pressure levels. Breakthroughs can be followed with small positions; if it doesn't break, then it’s pressure to short and support to go long. Overall, the ETF inflow into Bitcoin is relatively high, and the market is biased towards going long. Currently, the technical aspect is facing a correction, and adjustments can sometimes be completed within the day. Do not hold positions; ensure proper risk control. Set stop-loss within 500 points.
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4.28 Trend Change Prediction
If Bitcoin continues to experience strong fluctuations, then both the bears and bulls are currently concerned with one question: after such a significant increase, when will there be a major correction? Now, have you noticed a very strange issue? Suppose you went long at 80,000 points. When you just opened the position and the price surged, you would be extremely happy. However, as the price continues to rise, you might not only stop feeling happy but instead become increasingly afraid of holding the position, believing that after such a rally, a correction must be imminent. Many clever traders have already started to short the market. The reason they either can't hold their long positions or have begun to short is that they all believe the price has risen too much and has been rising for several days, thus it must correct. Is this approach really correct? Next, let's categorize the trends simply, and you will soon know the right answer. As is well known, there are three types of trends: The first type is a continuous decline with little rebound; the second type is a continuous rise with little correction; the third type is a trend where after rising for a few days, it declines for a few days, which is a fluctuating trend. In the trading market, there are quite a number of traders whose trading logic is to short after a significant rise because they believe a correction is due, and to go long after a significant drop because they expect a rebound. For example, in the past few days, the only reason for the bears to short has been that the price has risen for several days and must correct. This trading logic has a very high success rate in a fluctuating market. For instance, during Bitcoin's recent fluctuating trend, using the strategy of shorting after a rise and going long after a drop has an almost 100% success rate. However, please note that no trend can last forever. These three types of trends alternate in real trading. What is the ultimate purpose of a fluctuation? It is to change direction. Once the direction is clear and the price has risen significantly, the correction will not be very strong. Continuing with the previous trading logic of shorting after a rise, you will find that the probability of being liquidated increases dramatically. The same reasoning applies to a fluctuation turning into a decline; once the trend reverses, you will find that all rebounds are very weak, making counter-trend longs a liquidation trap. So, what specific situation are we in now? It is simple: a trend turning to an upward fluctuation. In the future, there will likely be three scenarios: the first being a slight correction followed by a continued rise; the second being a significant correction; and the third being a continued rise without correction. According to a wealth of historical experience, once a prolonged fluctuation turns into a rise and generates a strong trend, the probability of a significant correction in a short period is the lowest, while the probabilities of the other two scenarios are relatively high. But please note, a low probability does not mean it won't happen. The key issue in trading is to focus on events with higher probabilities of occurring. Using the simplest probability statistics, the probability of a significant drop and correction right now is about 20%, meaning that your chance of profiting significantly from a short is only 20%. The chance of making a small profit from shorting is about 40%, while the chance of going long after a correction is 60%. The chance of going long without a correction is only 30%. Given this situation, how should you choose?
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April 28 Midday Commentary
1. Bitcoin, expected range 94800-93500, expected trend to peak and then retreat;
2. Ethereum, expected range 1820-1780, expected trend to peak and then retreat;
3. No important data/events today.
Tuesday 22:00 JOLTs Job Openings (expected slight positive)
Wednesday 20:15 US ADP Employment Change (expected positive), 20:30 US Q1 GDP, 22:00 US March PCE Price Index
Around noon Thursday, Bank of Japan interest rate (to prevent negative impact from rate hikes)
Friday 20:30 Non-farm Payrolls/Unemployment Rate [Market Analysis]
Saturday and Sunday Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing a peak and retreat trend. The peak is a continuation of last week's upward momentum, while the retreat is due to the lack of positive news over the weekend and Monday, leading to profit-taking and a price drop.
Today there is no important data/events, long and short positions are balanced and in a tug-of-war.
The market is expected to show narrow fluctuations and a peak and retreat trend.
[Medium-term Perspective]
① With Trump signaling a softened stance on tariffs against China and other countries, and expressing no intention to dismiss Powell, market sentiment has significantly improved, and one should not be overly bearish.
② Starting this week, the market will focus on employment and inflation data, gradually beginning to speculate on interest rate cut expectations, with market volatility sharply rising and falling based on data quality.
Main range for Bitcoin is seen at 93000-88000, and for Ethereum at 1800-1650;
③ In the long term, the bull market is nearing its end; for altcoins and spot assets, consider selling in the next month or two as rebounds approach 30%-50% of the declines since December.
[Strategy]
Trade at the edges of the range: short at highs and long at lows.
1. Bitcoin, expected range 94800-93500, expected trend to peak and then retreat;
2. Ethereum, expected range 1820-1780, expected trend to peak and then retreat;
3. No important data/events today.
Tuesday 22:00 JOLTs Job Openings (expected slight positive)
Wednesday 20:15 US ADP Employment Change (expected positive), 20:30 US Q1 GDP, 22:00 US March PCE Price Index
Around noon Thursday, Bank of Japan interest rate (to prevent negative impact from rate hikes)
Friday 20:30 Non-farm Payrolls/Unemployment Rate [Market Analysis]
Saturday and Sunday Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing a peak and retreat trend. The peak is a continuation of last week's upward momentum, while the retreat is due to the lack of positive news over the weekend and Monday, leading to profit-taking and a price drop.
Today there is no important data/events, long and short positions are balanced and in a tug-of-war.
The market is expected to show narrow fluctuations and a peak and retreat trend.
[Medium-term Perspective]
① With Trump signaling a softened stance on tariffs against China and other countries, and expressing no intention to dismiss Powell, market sentiment has significantly improved, and one should not be overly bearish.
② Starting this week, the market will focus on employment and inflation data, gradually beginning to speculate on interest rate cut expectations, with market volatility sharply rising and falling based on data quality.
Main range for Bitcoin is seen at 93000-88000, and for Ethereum at 1800-1650;
③ In the long term, the bull market is nearing its end; for altcoins and spot assets, consider selling in the next month or two as rebounds approach 30%-50% of the declines since December.
[Strategy]
Trade at the edges of the range: short at highs and long at lows.
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Shocking Secret
All cryptocurrency traders, please pay attention. I have discovered a shocking secret about the future trend of Bitcoin, which allows you to accurately see the exact price of Bitcoin one year from now, no exaggeration. Today's content will absolutely overturn your worldview. Will Bitcoin rise to 200,000 and continue to open a bull market, or will it fall to 50,000 and continue to open a bear market? The answer will soon be revealed. In January of this year, when Trump was just elected, Bitcoin surged past 110,000, and many people were shouting 200,000. At that time, many felt it was credible. However, just two months later, Bitcoin dropped to over 70,000. At that time, many were shouting 50,000, even down to 30,000, and people were very scared. Now, Bitcoin has returned to above 90,000 in just one week, completely confusing many friends. Where is the future of Bitcoin? Everyone needs to see through the phenomenon and look at the essence, and not let the short-term price fluctuations confuse your eyes. The future price of Bitcoin depends only on two decisive factors: the first, as we talked about before, is the US stock market, and the second is the US dollar. We have previously analyzed the impact of the US stock market on Bitcoin's trend. Today, let's discuss another factor, which is the long cycle of the US dollar. Now, a single chart can instantly enlighten you about Bitcoin's future. This is the trend of the US dollar index from 2017 to 2018, which fell 30% in a year. During the same period, Bitcoin skyrocketed six times in a year, rising from 3,000 to 20,000. You might say this is just a coincidence, but don't blink. In the nearly ten years that followed, each cyclical rise and fall of the US dollar index corresponded to Bitcoin exhibiting the opposite trend. The most classic example is from 2021 to 2022, when the US dollar index soared due to interest rate hikes, while Bitcoin fell from 70,000 to 16,000, a drop of 80%. In April of this year, the large bearish monthly line of the US dollar allowed Bitcoin to quickly shake off the impact of the US stock market's decline, completely saving Bitcoin from the brink of a bear market. Once again, it rose above 90,000. Now, the trend of the US dollar is shaky. Trump is willing to let the US stock market fall to force Powell to quickly cut interest rates. History is always remarkably similar; whenever the US stock market experiences a crash, the dollar printing machine will restart, and the dollar's interest rate cut cycle will accelerate the decline of the dollar index. For example, the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and the global pandemic in 2020 followed the same script. Therefore, in the current context of the US debt crisis, it is almost impossible for the dollar to start raising interest rates and enter a new upward cycle. The dollar is almost certain to enter a downward cycle again. Thus, from the perspective of the long cycle, Bitcoin will continue its bullish trend. As for when the 200,000 dollar mark will be reached, I do not know, but I can tell everyone that it will definitely arrive in the future.
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The recent short-squeezes have been really terrible, with Bitcoin experiencing five consecutive bullish candles while the shorts faced intense liquidations. So, in the last seven days, the liquidation amount for shorts has reached $1.271 billion. On just April 30th, over 160,000 shorts were liquidated in a single day, and a large number of short positions were forcibly closed. Now, has anyone considered a question: if Bitcoin is rising every day, why are these short sellers still shorting? Are these 160,000 people all big fools? We have been bullish for a whole week and advised everyone to go long, so why are these people shorting and getting liquidated? There’s a saying that goes very well: 90% of the big fools in the world are in the trading market. These people might be very smart elites in various industries in their lives, but once they enter the trading market, their IQ drops to zero, and they become trading fools who mistake their ignorance for confidence, stubbornly opposing the trend. They experience the hardships in trading that they have never faced in life, and the weaknesses of human nature are infinitely magnified. They refuse to correct their mistakes, driven by greed and anger. There is a saying that those who are pitiable must have their own despicable traits. Many people in the trading market are repeatedly liquidated until they are broke, yet they refuse to acknowledge their mistakes and continue to repeat the same errors without repentance. The trading path is indeed a matter of life and death, and it's a true reflection. However, I have over 15 years of trading experience, including 10 years as a professional trader. Our trading team has all undergone the trials of life and death in the trading market. So, to everyone in front of the screen, the hardships you've faced and the tears you've shed in the trading market, we have all experienced them doubly.
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The pancake has not made a significant adjustment but has instead undergone a strong fluctuation. So will it accelerate upward immediately? Or is it forming a small top for a potential sharp decline at any moment? Our analysis yesterday clearly pointed out the mid-term bullish trend of Bitcoin, which has been confirmed once again. Therefore, recently, we should actively maintain a bullish mindset. Today, we will systematically sort out several possible trends of Bitcoin in the past few days, so that everyone can have a clear understanding and reasonably formulate their trading plans. The future trends of Bitcoin will likely fall into three scenarios: first, an immediate upward pull; second, an immediate downward smash; third, continued fluctuation. As for how the actual market trend will choose, we don't need to overthink it. We only need to focus on one thing: maintaining a bullish mindset. Regardless of how the market changes, we should find ways to continue attempting to go long based on the changes in trends, which aligns with the correct trading mindset we proposed yesterday, in line with the mid-term trend. Currently, the bullish positions should include taking some profit while retaining a large portion of the base position. If an immediate downward trend occurs, we will continuously look for support levels at various levels. I have identified two support levels for everyone: 8800 to 9200, which can be used as a reference. You can focus on observing near this support level; if the support holds, you can gradually replenish the portion of long positions you took profit on. If the trend continues to fluctuate, we can maintain our base position, adapting to changes as they come. If a significant upward surge occurs, we can either increase our positions or continue to hold the base position. With this trading plan in place, no matter how the market fluctuates in the coming days, you can have different strategies to respond. This makes trading very simple. Finally, I wish everyone good luck, and we will continue tomorrow.
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#加密市场反弹 #BTC走势分析 Bitcoin has now started to pull back from its high. Is this pullback a normal adjustment or has the market completely ended? Yesterday, Bitcoin reached a peak of 94,724 points. The viewpoint I proposed last Saturday about 95,000 has now been fully realized by the market. Today, let's specifically discuss the technical viewpoint of Bitcoin in the medium term and the two decisive factors influencing its medium-term trend, to uncover the shocking secrets of Bitcoin's future movement. First, let’s look at the technical aspects of the candlestick chart. This is the weekly chart. The upward trend of Bitcoin has not been completely destroyed by the continuous decline of the US stock market; it still remains above the upward trend line. From the current daily chart, Bitcoin has broken through the constraints of the downward channel and is being hindered by previous resistance levels. That’s why we proposed earlier that this wave should reach the 95,000 area, because of this neckline resistance level. Today, encountering resistance and pulling back here is actually quite normal from a technical standpoint. Through the technical analysis of the two levels just discussed, we can arrive at a very simple yet correct conclusion: the current medium-term trend of Bitcoin is still bullish. Therefore, today's adjustment is definitely a short-term adjustment. The most critical question now is where will the adjustment end? Will it adjust for one day or continue adjusting? This question is actually not easy to answer. Currently, although there is pressure above, there is indeed very strong support below, specifically between 87,000 and 88,000. The current strategy for trading with the trend should be noted; it is definitely not about shorting to make a small profit, but rather seeking opportunities at support levels. Keep trying to go long and make significant profits in the medium term because, as we analyzed earlier, the current medium-term trend of Bitcoin is still bullish. Although the adjustments in the past few months have been very severe, after the recent weeks of rallying, the medium-term bottom is now clear. Continuously seeking opportunities to go long is the most correct way to trade with the trend. Wishing everyone good luck tonight.
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April 24th [Midday Insights]
1. Bitcoin, expected range 93600-91000, anticipated trend is a rebound followed by a decline;
2. Ethereum, expected range 1790-1720, anticipated trend is a rebound followed by a decline;
3. Today at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims (expected neutral)
Friday at 22:00, U.S. April one-year inflation expectations final value (expected bearish)
Friday ?? o'clock, U.S. SEC new chairman Atkins speaks at the crypto roundtable (expected bullish) [Market Analysis]
Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidated at high levels, today a slight decline is expected.
1. The day before yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum surged, the reasons are——
① Trump expressed intent to lower tariffs with China to below 145%.
② Media reports indicate U.S. negotiations with Japan/India on tariffs are close to an agreement;
③ Trump clearly stated, "no intention to fire Powell."
④ The new SEC chairman Atkins, who is friendly towards cryptocurrencies, officially took office.
The current background is still under the backdrop of the U.S. 'triple kill' of stocks, bonds, and currencies, however, the series of positive news the night before last significantly alleviated market concerns about the Fed's independence, trade wars, etc. Due to safe-haven sentiment and funds flowing in, the optimistic atmosphere of the U.S. stock market rebound, and the passive appreciation of the depreciating dollar, it received support and led to the surge the day before yesterday.
2. However, last night U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen insisted on a 'strong dollar policy' (suppressing interest rate cut expectations); the Beige Book of the U.S. economic situation expects inflation (suppressing interest rate cut expectations), thus after the optimistic sentiment brought by the positive news the day before yesterday dissipated, due to the lack of individual positive news in the crypto market (crypto policy/interest rate cuts), a large sell-off could occur after hitting highs, leading to a sharp decline (this phenomenon is expected to recur in the near future).
3. Since the new SEC chairman Atkins is speaking at the crypto roundtable tomorrow night (expected bullish), therefore today a major decline is not anticipated, and tomorrow may see a rise. Tomorrow's rebound presents a shorting opportunity.
4. Today's trend is expected to be a rebound followed by a decline.
[Medium-term Insights]
① With Trump signaling a softening attitude towards tariffs with China and other countries, and expressing no intention to fire Powell, the market atmosphere has significantly improved. Please do not plagiarize Huiying’s views; excessive bearishness should be avoided.
However, since interest rate cuts are still expected in June, after the short-lived optimistic sentiment dissipates, Bitcoin and Ethereum will retreat. The main adjustment range for Bitcoin is expected to be 90000-85000, and for Ethereum, it is expected to be 1750-1600
#加密市场反弹 #
1. Bitcoin, expected range 93600-91000, anticipated trend is a rebound followed by a decline;
2. Ethereum, expected range 1790-1720, anticipated trend is a rebound followed by a decline;
3. Today at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims (expected neutral)
Friday at 22:00, U.S. April one-year inflation expectations final value (expected bearish)
Friday ?? o'clock, U.S. SEC new chairman Atkins speaks at the crypto roundtable (expected bullish) [Market Analysis]
Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidated at high levels, today a slight decline is expected.
1. The day before yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum surged, the reasons are——
① Trump expressed intent to lower tariffs with China to below 145%.
② Media reports indicate U.S. negotiations with Japan/India on tariffs are close to an agreement;
③ Trump clearly stated, "no intention to fire Powell."
④ The new SEC chairman Atkins, who is friendly towards cryptocurrencies, officially took office.
The current background is still under the backdrop of the U.S. 'triple kill' of stocks, bonds, and currencies, however, the series of positive news the night before last significantly alleviated market concerns about the Fed's independence, trade wars, etc. Due to safe-haven sentiment and funds flowing in, the optimistic atmosphere of the U.S. stock market rebound, and the passive appreciation of the depreciating dollar, it received support and led to the surge the day before yesterday.
2. However, last night U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen insisted on a 'strong dollar policy' (suppressing interest rate cut expectations); the Beige Book of the U.S. economic situation expects inflation (suppressing interest rate cut expectations), thus after the optimistic sentiment brought by the positive news the day before yesterday dissipated, due to the lack of individual positive news in the crypto market (crypto policy/interest rate cuts), a large sell-off could occur after hitting highs, leading to a sharp decline (this phenomenon is expected to recur in the near future).
3. Since the new SEC chairman Atkins is speaking at the crypto roundtable tomorrow night (expected bullish), therefore today a major decline is not anticipated, and tomorrow may see a rise. Tomorrow's rebound presents a shorting opportunity.
4. Today's trend is expected to be a rebound followed by a decline.
[Medium-term Insights]
① With Trump signaling a softening attitude towards tariffs with China and other countries, and expressing no intention to fire Powell, the market atmosphere has significantly improved. Please do not plagiarize Huiying’s views; excessive bearishness should be avoided.
However, since interest rate cuts are still expected in June, after the short-lived optimistic sentiment dissipates, Bitcoin and Ethereum will retreat. The main adjustment range for Bitcoin is expected to be 90000-85000, and for Ethereum, it is expected to be 1750-1600
#加密市场反弹 #
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