Currently, the trend of Bitcoin presents a complex and critical situation. The price is continuously rising against the divergence, successfully closing at a new high on the daily chart, showing strong bullish momentum, and overall still operating within an upward channel. As long as it does not effectively break below the lower edge of the channel, it is not advisable to blindly short. However, the supply area ahead has significant resistance, with $108,500 becoming a key level; once breached, it is highly likely to refresh the historical high.

From the monthly perspective, Bitcoin has closed up for two consecutive months, and the dynamic bullish candlestick pattern is strong, indicating that there is still potential to hit higher points next month. The pressure level at $114,000 on the monthly chart deserves special attention. However, it is important to be cautious as the 3-day line indicator has entered the overbought zone, increasing the risk of a short-term pullback. Although the bulls are dominant, the market is not a smooth ride. Given the current situation, trading should remain cautious and flexible. Before the price breaks through the strong resistance at $108,500, it is advisable for investors to avoid blindly chasing long positions to guard against pullback risks. In the early session, focus on the pullback trend; aggressive traders may consider lightly positioning short near $107,000, waiting for a price pullback. If the price pulls back to around $105,000 and stabilizes, it may be appropriate to consider going long, looking towards higher price levels. If it fails to effectively stabilize at this support level, there are other key support points below at $104,200 and $103,000, which can be adjusted based on the actual situation. If the price subsequently breaks new highs, be cautious of a double top pattern forming; once the double top is established, the market may face significant downward pressure in the second half of the year. At this time, it is important to take profits and stop losses promptly to avoid potential risks.

During this period leading up to the BTC summit, the overall market volatility is small. Although there is a lack of key data, several Federal Reserve officials have clearly expressed a tendency not to adjust monetary policy in the short term, suggesting that the current interest rates may remain unchanged in June and even July.

Additionally, the stablecoin bill and the 'Beautiful Big Bill' have sparked heated discussions, but they have yet to materialize, leading to uncertainty. In terms of BTC, the price once surged to $107,300, just a step away from the historical high. Although macro data is scarce, the market focus has shifted to the China-US trade situation, the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war, and possible sudden policy actions from Trump. From on-chain data, the short-term turnover rate has clearly increased, especially as weekend bottom-fishing investors have started to reduce their positions, with short-term funds still dominating current trading.