April 24th [Midday Insights]

1. Bitcoin, expected range 93600-91000, anticipated trend is a rebound followed by a decline;

2. Ethereum, expected range 1790-1720, anticipated trend is a rebound followed by a decline;

3. Today at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims (expected neutral)

Friday at 22:00, U.S. April one-year inflation expectations final value (expected bearish)

Friday ?? o'clock, U.S. SEC new chairman Atkins speaks at the crypto roundtable (expected bullish) [Market Analysis]

Yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidated at high levels, today a slight decline is expected.

1. The day before yesterday, Bitcoin and Ethereum surged, the reasons are——

① Trump expressed intent to lower tariffs with China to below 145%.

② Media reports indicate U.S. negotiations with Japan/India on tariffs are close to an agreement;

③ Trump clearly stated, "no intention to fire Powell."

④ The new SEC chairman Atkins, who is friendly towards cryptocurrencies, officially took office.

The current background is still under the backdrop of the U.S. 'triple kill' of stocks, bonds, and currencies, however, the series of positive news the night before last significantly alleviated market concerns about the Fed's independence, trade wars, etc. Due to safe-haven sentiment and funds flowing in, the optimistic atmosphere of the U.S. stock market rebound, and the passive appreciation of the depreciating dollar, it received support and led to the surge the day before yesterday.

2. However, last night U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen insisted on a 'strong dollar policy' (suppressing interest rate cut expectations); the Beige Book of the U.S. economic situation expects inflation (suppressing interest rate cut expectations), thus after the optimistic sentiment brought by the positive news the day before yesterday dissipated, due to the lack of individual positive news in the crypto market (crypto policy/interest rate cuts), a large sell-off could occur after hitting highs, leading to a sharp decline (this phenomenon is expected to recur in the near future).

3. Since the new SEC chairman Atkins is speaking at the crypto roundtable tomorrow night (expected bullish), therefore today a major decline is not anticipated, and tomorrow may see a rise. Tomorrow's rebound presents a shorting opportunity.

4. Today's trend is expected to be a rebound followed by a decline.

[Medium-term Insights]

① With Trump signaling a softening attitude towards tariffs with China and other countries, and expressing no intention to fire Powell, the market atmosphere has significantly improved. Please do not plagiarize Huiying’s views; excessive bearishness should be avoided.

However, since interest rate cuts are still expected in June, after the short-lived optimistic sentiment dissipates, Bitcoin and Ethereum will retreat. The main adjustment range for Bitcoin is expected to be 90000-85000, and for Ethereum, it is expected to be 1750-1600

#加密市场反弹 #