The Federal Reserve is about to announce the decision from the June meeting, which is the least impactful meeting so far this year.

1. No one expects a rate cut this time, and news about the Middle East and tariffs is dominating the headlines, so market attention to this meeting is very low.

This meeting has the typical characteristics of 'three lows and one high':

· Low expectations: The market generally expects no action;

· Low attention: News coverage is taken away by the Middle East situation, EU tariffs, and the U.S. elections;

· Low volatility in advance: Recent volatility in the U.S. stock and bond markets has been very low, with the VIX remaining at low levels.

However, it is precisely because this meeting is expected to be 'squeezed', that if any surprises arise, investors may be caught off guard.

2. The dot plot is the 'Achilles' heel of risky assets'

The overall tone of the meeting may change, likely avoiding hawkish signals to prevent angering Trump. The latest dot plot and economic forecast summary will also be released.

· Dot plot: If it shows that the Fed still leans towards cutting rates twice this year, the market will see it as good news. If it shows only one rate cut, the market will view it as significant bad news. The likelihood of the latter scenario occurring is high.

· Economic forecast summary: The Federal Reserve may raise its inflation forecast, raise its unemployment rate forecast, while lowering its economic forecast. The unemployment rate is the most important variable; if it quickly rises to 4.5%, the Fed may have to cut rates earlier.

3. Powell's press conference will be key to influencing the market. We believe his stance leans slightly dovish, but he will deliberately say some 'clearly hawkish' and 'clearly dovish' things to create confusion.

We may hear the following 'contradictory' expressions:

· Dovish: Emphasizing progress in slowing inflation; acknowledging that the labor market is 'rebalancing'; 'cautiously optimistic about premature rate cuts';

· Hawkish: Emphasizing 'the 2% target has not yet been achieved', data dependence, no commitment to a timeline, and a cautious attitude towards external factors like tariffs.

The most likely scenario is 'verbal dovishness, dot plot hawkishness', in order to avoid a one-sided and significant market fluctuation.#币安Alpha上新 $BTC #以色列伊朗冲突