The Fed announced that it would maintain interest rates, but issued a rare warning. As a result, the U.S. stock market gave back gains, with the S&P 500 index briefly breaking the 6000-point mark, ultimately closing below that level.
Warning One: Issuing an inflation warning.
Tariffs will push up prices, and this effect may persist. The cost of tariffs ultimately has to be borne by someone, and much of it will fall on consumers—this was stated by Fed Chairman Powell at a press conference, where he has previously avoided commenting on specific views on tariffs, but this time he rarely expressed an opinion.
Warning Two: Reduce the number of rate cuts next year by one.
Although the official statement (dot plot) still indicates "two rate cuts this year," it has reduced the number of rate cuts next year by one—implying two cuts expected this year and only one next year. Moreover, the number of officials who believe the Fed will not cut rates at all this year has increased from 4 to 7, showing a divided opinion within the Fed—either two cuts or no cuts.
Warning Three: The economy may experience mild stagflation.
The economic forecast summary indicates that GDP growth will slow this year, unemployment will rise, and inflation will be higher—monetary policy will be more at a loss.
Warning Four: We do not know how to predict this situation.
Powell acknowledges that he has "never seen such a combination of tariffs + geopolitics + inflation" and that predicting it is very difficult. Once the market hears this, it knows the Fed will not act rashly.
The "real trend" after the Fed meeting usually appears the next day, as the market needs time to digest. At the slightest sign, gold, oil, and the stock market tremble; although yesterday's market close seemed calm, a trend has already begun to brew.
The real trend is still ahead. How will gold move next? #我的交易风格 $BTC
