刘五论势

Market fluctuations are always rapid; I generally send tips to my students as soon as possible. Sometimes on the platform, it is inevitable to miss the timing, and the information may be delayed.

Regarding stop-loss, everyone can set it within a range they can accept, and the same goes for adding positions; it should be operated within a range they can control. After all, my approach cannot always be accurate—especially when facing a one-sided market, if there's a deviation in judgment, even if a shift is necessary, it may not be possible to notify everyone in time.

Therefore, friends who operate based on their own reference ideas must do a good job of risk control, maintain good defense, and must not have a mindset of taking chances. $BTC #加密市场回调

在1小时级别来看，市场多空力量处于较为胶着但多头力量逐渐增强的状态。布林带显示价格受上轨吸引，有进一步上行的动力；MACD指标虽当前空头占优，但多头力量正在复苏。
比特币可在111000附近做哆，上看112500$BTC #美联储降息预期

目前BNB技术面显示，均线系统呈现多头排列，比价位于短期均线之上，表明柿场动能仍偏向上行。然而，成交量的极度缩量与看跌吞没形态的出现，暗示短期内柿场可能面临回调压力。此外，RSI处于超买区间，比价突破布林带上轨，进一步强化了调整的可能性。#加密市场回调 $BNB

In recent days, Bitcoin has shown a remarkable rebound, with both the magnitude and trading volume being quite significant. Yesterday, the price once approached a key position, just a hundred points away, but failed to achieve an effective breakthrough; subsequently, the market saw a significant downward movement, closing with a long upper shadow that indicates a notable trading volume. This formation clearly reflects that the selling pressure above remains heavy.

From the analysis of the trend structure, there is still a probability that the market will continue to decline. Maintaining the previous judgment: Bitcoin is likely to further test the annual support area, and only an effective breakthrough of the pressure zone near 1135 can reverse this downward expectation. #美联储降息预期 $BTC

Don't always worry about the road that hasn't been walked yet, and don't get tangled up in things that have already passed. Every meal you eat seriously today, every small task you complete patiently, and even just having a good sleep, are all ways to gather strength for yourself. Take your time; every step you take steadily will eventually lead you to where you want to go.
【Bitcoin's daily chart remains under pressure but does not change the bullish trend, with signs of upward movement emerging!】
From the daily chart perspective, Bitcoin has rebounded to a key resistance area, and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands has formed short-term resistance, with the current price showing slight fluctuations at this position.
However, it is worth noting that the technical indicators have not turned bearish, but instead reveal positive signals: buying energy continues to strengthen, and the candlestick pattern has formed a strong structure of 'bullish engulfing', releasing clear signals for upward continuation!
Friends who have previously placed long orders can continue to hold, follow the trend, and patiently await the market breakout.
Trading suggestion:
Bitcoin can be bought on dips in the range of 110800–110400,
with a target of 112500, and further upward movement to 113500 after effective breakout.
The market rhythm is clear; pullbacks are opportunities. Seize the chance to buy low and lock in the next wave of rising dividends $BTC #币安HODLer空投OPEN

比特币以太坊9.1-9.6本周刘五的小结 9月1日，BTC价格开盘于104400，随后开启强劲涨势。在多头力量的推动下，价格迅速攀升，于9月2日涨至108800，市场情绪一片乐观。然而好景不长，9月3日受美联储鹰派信号影响，市场预期发生转变，同时机构抛压沉重，BTC价格开启连续下探模式。一路震荡下行，9月4日价格已明显走低。
9月5日周五，BTC价格出现反弹，回升至106500一线 ，给市场带来一丝喘息之机。但好景不长，当日晚些时候美联储再度释放利空消息，市场信心遭受重挫，价格迅速跌破此前低点，一路下探至102300。
进入周末，市场恐慌情绪蔓延，出现集中抛售现象，BTC价格进一步走低，最低触及100800一线低点。截至目前，价格有所反弹，回升至102600附近波动，后续走势仍充满不确定性，投资者需密切关注市场动态以及宏观经济政策变老刘给到大家的思路都是提前发放，周一布局中先以多为主空为辅思路布局拿下3419的空间，以太拿下179的空间。周二日内大饼受消息面早间进多止盈后进多拿下3377的空间，以太拿下207。周三周四周五日内以震荡为主老刘给到高空低吸思路1w多空间，以太
398的空间。周未开始以空为主大饼拿下1254多空间，以太拿下57点空间！思路全网提前公开给到，老刘从来不是马后炮，只要行情在老刘就一直在。 有人凌晨两点紧盯盘面心跳，有人躺平持仓静待趋势发酵，有人盈利后贪心追高被套，有人止损时犹豫错失出逃，为抓住反弹熬到天明的难入眠，被杠杆吞噬本金的再无破晓，冷静的判断与克制的操作才是护身的战袍，睁眼看清市场信号的瞬间便是转机，此刻起，你选择的不是多空，而是章法，波动是币圈的常态，而你的理性和找对节奏$BTC

Welcome this student $BTC $#美联储降息预期

$BTC 本周行情分析与解套名额通知
本周比特币持续在10.7-11.35万区间震荡，以太坊则于4200-4500区域内调整，多空反复洗盘，且空头洗盘占据主导优势。

当前市场多空陷入胶着，关键筹码分布明确：

空头主要聚集在10.3-10.8万BTC、3800-4000ETH区域

多头主要聚集在11.6-12万BTC、4600-4900ETH区域

若你在上述区间持有多空套单，需抓住当前震荡窗口及时解套。本周末特开放3个免费解套指导名额，将按咨询顺序优先安排，先到先得。#美联储降息预期 $ETH

9.7老刘早间思路

大饼

四小时线经历大幅回调后，精准回落至中轨区域并触发强劲支撑，未有效破位，当前进入震荡整理阶段。从历史走势看，上行通道结构完好，且回调推动低点逐步上移，后续延续上行趋势概率较高。日内需重点关注 109300 关键支撑位。

操作建议：10000附近布局多单，目标看向111500 - 112500。
二饼

周末持续震荡调整，当前价格在4300阻力位下方蓄势。四小时线呈现触底反弹特征，已形成两连阳，且BOLL、MACD、KDJ指标同步拐头向上；周线层面，短期上涨方向未变，仅跌破 4240 关键支撑区域才可能扭转趋势。

操作建议：4280附近布局多单，目标看向4340 - 4390。#美联储降息预期

$BTC 日内行情回顾与周日凌晨操作思路

日内行情整体呈区间震荡格局，无明确趋势方向。比特币价格先扬后抑，最高上行至111307一线后遇压回落，晚间在110999关口再度承压，最低下探至109977一线；同期以太坊走势同步偏弱，自5328高点开启缓慢震荡下行模式，最终最低触及4236一线。

从盘面看，短期均线走平、多空均线缠绕，未形成明确金叉或死叉信号，进一步印证短期需以区间看待。辅助指标方面，相对强弱指数（RSI）在凌晨2-4时一度下探至38附近，随后快速反弹至45-50中性区间，说明109977一线存在短期支撑，空头动能未能持续释放；布林带通道收窄，上轨压制在110800附近，下轨支撑对应109900一线，通道收口进一步明确短期震荡范围。综上，建议短期以区间对待，采取高空低吸策略。

周日凌晨具体操作思路

• 比特币：建议在109000附近布局多单，目标看向112000-113000区间。

• 以太坊：建议在4250附近布局多单，目标看向4400一线。#非农就业数据来袭 $BTC

The cryptocurrency has shown a trend of rising and then falling within 24 hours. The highest price in 24 hours reached $111,700.00, while the lowest price dropped to $110,206.96. As of 23:55, the Bitcoin price was reported at $110,380.01, which is a decrease from the day's price, with a drop of 0.38%.
The chart shows three moving averages: MA(7), MA(25), and MA(99). The current value of MA(7) is 110,743.84, MA(25) is 110,876.92, and MA(99) is 111,149.25. It can be seen that the price has already fallen below MA(7) and is getting closer to MA(25), indicating that the short-term trend has weakened, and there is a trend of further approaching the mid-term moving average and possibly crossing below it, suggesting that bearish forces are strengthening.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating around 110700. Analyzing from the daily chart perspective, the moving averages show a continuous downward trend, and the candlesticks have consistently been operating below the middle track, indicating a clear overall bearish trend. Therefore, we still maintain a bearish outlook for the market.

Operational suggestion:
Short Bitcoin around 111300 - 111800, looking down to 109300 - 108300#非农就业数据来袭 $BTC

Is the current price of Bitcoin short or long? $BTC

9.6 Sunday Morning Thought Analysis
Don't always focus on what you haven't acquired yet, and don't be anxious about things that haven't happened. Every step you take, even if it's slow, is getting you closer to where you want to go; every bit of effort you put in, even if it doesn't yield immediate results, is quietly shaping a better you. When you're tired, take a break; when you're sad, allow yourself to cry, but don't stay in one place for too long. Tomorrow's sun will rise as usual, and you will definitely be stronger than today.
After the non-farm payrolls, the downward movement stopped around 110300, failing to break the support at 110000. This point of retracement has been directly highlighted across the network. It was promptly suggested to go long.
In the early hours, there was a rebound, reaching around the 111700 point. The trend is still quite strong, but it again failed to break 110000. Currently, it is in a rebound phase.
In the morning, reference around 110200, looking at the 111500 range. If it doesn't continue upward, then watch for a reversal. #美联储降息预期 $BTC

The market never compensates for diversifiable risk. The true core of risk has two points: first, the principal suffers permanent loss; second, the return rate lags behind inflation, leading to a decrease in purchasing power. High returns are essentially a reasonable compensation for scarcity risk, rather than the profits from frequent trading operations.

Currently, BTC is showing a short-term rebound trend, with a current price of 110,887.79. Although it has not fully established above the key moving average MA(99) (111,192.61), the increase of +1.26% has already shown signs of bullish momentum recovery. Based on the signals from the market, the following operational suggestions are made:

1. Buy on dips: Wait for the price to pull back to the range of 110,400-110,600 (support zone below MA(99)), and after confirming stability, you can gradually enter long positions, with a strict stop loss set below 109,800 to prevent breakout risks.

2. Conditions for chasing long: If the price breaks through 111,300 (MA(7) resistance level) with increased volume, you can enter with a light position to chase long, aiming for the target area of 112,000-112,200 (the pressure zone formed by the MA(25) moving average and the previous highs).

3. Risk warning: It is necessary to pay attention to changes in volume in real-time. If the trading volume does not increase when breaking through key resistance levels, or if there are signals of stagnation in the market (such as a top divergence, long upper shadow, etc.), you should promptly take profits and exit to avoid pullback risks.

Many people always feel that being trapped in investments can only be endured, and "toughing it out" seems to be the only way out. Later, I gradually understood that there are actually many ways to break free from being trapped, and there's no need to be stuck in place and anxious.
Market fluctuations are the norm; rather than watching the market rise and fall in panic, it's better to change strategies: gradually add to positions when prices are low, quietly lowering the cost of holdings, making the mindset more stable; or let go of the obsession with short-term ups and downs, and not be disturbed by small fluctuations, making it easier to wait for opportunities when trends recover.
The easiest pitfall in investing is to follow the crowd and chase after highs when prices are high, and panic sell during declines. The truly prudent approach is to identify key support levels, rationally execute phased operations to dilute costs, and most importantly, set a stop-loss to protect the principal, so there is room to discuss subsequent profits.
Of course, everyone's holding situation and risk tolerance are different, so specific operations should be combined with one's actual circumstances. If you're temporarily unsure, feel free to chat. When the market is complex, having someone to help clarify thoughts can often prevent a lot of detours. $BTC $ETH #加密市场回调

Attention family! DOGE seems to have a bit of a rebound in the short term, but the momentum is clearly not strong enough—if it rises sharply, a pullback is likely to follow! So in terms of operations, we should still seize the opportunity to short at highs and not rush to chase the price up～
Specific advice is to enter short positions around 0.22000 to 0.22180, with the initial target at 0.21530. If it can break through smoothly, then aim for 0.21150! However, I must remind you that the market changes quickly, so always base it on real-time conditions and be flexible in adjusting strategies; being steady is the key to reliability～#美联储降息预期 $DOGE

Is the current price of Bitcoin more or less $BTC

Have you all eaten meat? Those who haven't, don't fall behind? #非农就业数据来袭 $ETH

Concubine current price empty or more $ETH

Doge, it is recommended to place long positions around 0.20, with a target looking up to 0.25. If broken, continue to look up to #非农就业数据来袭 $DOGE