The market never compensates for diversifiable risk. The true core of risk has two points: first, the principal suffers permanent loss; second, the return rate lags behind inflation, leading to a decrease in purchasing power. High returns are essentially a reasonable compensation for scarcity risk, rather than the profits from frequent trading operations.
Currently, BTC is showing a short-term rebound trend, with a current price of 110,887.79. Although it has not fully established above the key moving average MA(99) (111,192.61), the increase of +1.26% has already shown signs of bullish momentum recovery. Based on the signals from the market, the following operational suggestions are made:
1. Buy on dips: Wait for the price to pull back to the range of 110,400-110,600 (support zone below MA(99)), and after confirming stability, you can gradually enter long positions, with a strict stop loss set below 109,800 to prevent breakout risks.
2. Conditions for chasing long: If the price breaks through 111,300 (MA(7) resistance level) with increased volume, you can enter with a light position to chase long, aiming for the target area of 112,000-112,200 (the pressure zone formed by the MA(25) moving average and the previous highs).
3. Risk warning: It is necessary to pay attention to changes in volume in real-time. If the trading volume does not increase when breaking through key resistance levels, or if there are signals of stagnation in the market (such as a top divergence, long upper shadow, etc.), you should promptly take profits and exit to avoid pullback risks.