欢夏猫Trader

$BTC From the current structure, although the overall trend is not strong, there is still a possibility of continuing to rise. At the same time, it does not currently have the structure to break below 766 and make new lows. After the adjustment ends, it is still expected to challenge above 88968.

But no matter how it goes, the market is always right!

$BTC

$BTC is under pressure in the short term, pay attention to the breakthrough of the key trend line

Recently, the hourly line of $BTC 1 has continued to fluctuate. The current price fluctuates around $95,600 and has failed to effectively break through the upper trend line resistance. The technical pattern shows that the market may be in the 4th wave stage of the diffusion end wedge adjustment. If it cannot stand above the trend line in the short term, it may accelerate the fall below the key support of $91,200 and form a C wave downward structure. If this pattern is established, it means that the market will complete the staged adjustment and accumulate momentum for the subsequent rebound.

From the disk data, $BTC closed down 0.27% at the 1-hour level, the high point gradually moved down, and the trading volume shrank simultaneously, indicating that the bullish momentum was insufficient. At the same time, BTC/FDUSD and ETH/FDUSD fell by 2.47% and 4.10% respectively, reflecting the overall risk aversion in the market. If the price drops further, it is necessary to pay attention to the long-short game near $91,200, which is not only the lower edge of the diffusion wedge, but also the medium-term platform support area.

Although the short-term downside risk has intensified, the market is expected to usher in a large-scale rebound after the technical adjustment. Investors need to be wary of panic selling after the break, but in the medium and long term, they can wait for stabilization signals and lay out potential reversal opportunities. At present, it is recommended to wait and see, focusing on the effectiveness of trend line breakthroughs and changes in trading volume to confirm the direction of the next stage.

$BTC

Beware! Exchange's new coin "trap" and investment guide

You thought you found the code to wealth, but you may have stepped into a carefully laid "trap"? In the world of digital currency, exchanges will launch new hot altcoins every once in a while. Just like the previous x coin, it exploded 20 times from the bottom; ol coin also rose 10 times, and the recent ip coin performance is also eye-catching.

It seems full of opportunities to get rich, but there are huge risks behind it. According to statistics, 19 out of 20 new coins will often fall miserably. The exchange does this just to get the maximum benefit with the minimum cost, and occasionally create a "myth" of a 10-fold coin to attract retail investors.

The market trend behind this is worth pondering. No one trades the new coin when it goes online? It doesn't exist. As long as there is a wealth-creating effect, retail investors will continue to rush in. But this is actually a high-risk gamble, and most new coins have no actual value support at all.

For ordinary investors, you must remain rational. Investment is not speculation. Don't be blinded by short-term profits. Learn more professional knowledge, analyze the fundamentals of the project, and do a good job of risk assessment.

What do you think about investing in digital currency? Or do you have similar experiences? Welcome to share in the comment area and exchange investment experiences together!

Recently, the market has faded away, and it is impossible to raise any interest in trading.

The volatility is flatter than an electrocardiogram, and the K-line moves more regularly than a square dance. Trying to operate in this useless market is like fishing in a stagnant pond; after a lot of effort, you might catch a few shrimp at most.

Rather than repeatedly trading short and getting cut by transaction fees, it's better to brew a pot of tea and take a break. If you really feel the urge to trade, just hold your nose and make a few short-term trades, remembering that the survival rule is to observe more and act less.

$BTC

Why is it so hard for ordinary people to own 1 Bitcoin?

Bitcoin is like a limited edition of gold, with only 21 million coins in total worldwide, but the reality is even harsher: nearly 20 million coins have already been mined, of which at least 3 million have permanently 'disappeared' due to lost passwords or long-term dormancy. The remaining amount that can actually be bought and sold is only about 16 million coins, and there are only 1.1 million coins left to be mined, with increasing difficulty as time goes on.

What’s even more heartbreaking is that most of these Bitcoins are controlled by a few people: the inventor Satoshi Nakamoto alone holds over a million coins, and the top ten billionaires, large companies, and even various governments have hoarded nearly half of the total supply. Calculating it out, only about 6 million coins are left for the 8 billion people in the world, which means more than 1,300 people are competing for 1 coin.

Data shows that fewer than 840,000 accounts hold a complete 1 Bitcoin, while 90% of people have less than 0.1 Bitcoin in their wallets.
What should ordinary people do if they can’t afford a whole coin? Actually, Bitcoin can be divided into 'fractional gold'! 1 coin = 100 million 'Satoshis' (the smallest unit), if you spend a few hundred yuan each month to buy 0.003 coins, in ten years you will have saved up 0.36 coins. It may not seem like much now, but as Bitcoin becomes increasingly rare (with production cut in half every four years), these fragments may be worth more than whole gold bars in the future.

Instead of being troubled by 'not being able to afford 1 coin', it’s better to get on board early. Even if you only save a few 'Bitcoin fragments', it’s still a key to unlock future wealth for yourself—after all, this asset cannot be inflated, so the sooner you accumulate, the more peace of mind you will have.

$BTC

[Crypto market regulation is upgraded again! ]

The US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) are conspiring to join forces to make trouble!

The latest news is that the two regulatory giants plan to reorganize the joint advisory committee to focus on the cryptocurrency market and may launch a "regulatory combination punch" in the future.

Are the leeks trembling? The Web3 circle may usher in changes

(Rumor: This collaboration may involve Bitcoin ETFs, stablecoins and exchange compliance reviews) Investors pay attention!

$BTC

[Late-night storm warning! The Fed's first battle of the year]⏰

🔥Global investors will not sleep tonight! At 3 a.m. on January 30, the Fed's first interest rate decision in 2025 will be launched! Currently, there is a **99.5% super high probability of maintaining an interest rate of 4.5%**, but the real nuclear bomb is hidden in Powell's speech!

💥Special attention:
▫️ **Secret code for balance sheet reduction**: Will the pace of selling trillions of US bonds change suddenly?
▫️ **Word-cannon game**: How to respond to "calls for interest rate cuts" has become the biggest suspense
▫️ **March prediction**: The probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut has fallen below 50%!

📉Risk avoidance guide:
✅ Warning of soaring volatility of gold/US bonds
✅ US tech stocks may be hit precisely

⏳Countdown 9 hours! Set the alarm and wait for Powell's final speech (those who understand will understand 🙊)
#FederalReserve Late Night Nuclear Bomb#GlobalAsset Pricing Anchor#FinancialMidnight Show#
👇Are you a hawk or a dove tonight? Come and vote!

$BTC $ETH

$ETH is currently trying to break through the upper trend line. Once it breaks through, it may usher in a strong rise!

The upgrade mentioned earlier in March has also been brought forward, so Ethereum and the Ethereum system may also usher in a strong outbreak.

Take the SSV recommended in the base! As an SSV of the Ethereum system, if you are a short-term position, then don’t be greedy and follow the strategy (there is one in the base);

If it is a medium-term position, get it doubled and then consider selling it. After all, Ethereum has favorable upgrades in February and March. Although there is insufficient funds in the market, as long as there are hot spots, funds will be concentrated.

Don’t play short-term positions as medium-term positions, and medium-term positions as short-term positions. You must have a clear definition of your position and don’t change your mind!

$ETH $SSV

Now this market really has nothing more to say, everything that needs to be said has already been said at the base. The market is just like the perfect ending of the script in Figure 2; as long as you have a good defensive strategy, the rest is just waiting for the arrival of the Spring Festival red envelope market.
So, dear ones, have you benefited from this wave of the market?
$BTC

The position $BTC may become a key position; if it cannot be held, there will be continued downward fluctuations.

Figure 1: Currently, $BTC has gained the trend line. As long as it holds steady here, it can continue to rise. The support level of the trend line at 8 PM is 101700; if the 4-hour closing is above 102400, there is a possibility of continuing to rebound and breaking through 103820. The corresponding upward target can refer to the positions mentioned in the previous video.

Figure 2: From a wave perspective, it seems that another triangular adjustment wave may occur here (not completed, so its accuracy cannot be determined). After the adjustment, there may be a new upward trend. If it breaks the trend line in Figure 1, then it may follow the downward trend mentioned in the previous video, leading to a wide range of fluctuations. Those who do not understand can refer to the previous video.

Figure 3: From a harmonic perspective, if it breaks the trend line in Figure 1, then these four positions may become the next starting points. Positions 2 and 3 in the figure correspond to the wave trend mentioned in the previous video (not breaking below 89), while position 4 corresponds to the downward trend breaking below 89. Position 1 has the lowest probability among the four, but it cannot be directly ruled out.

All of the above is rational technical analysis; how it actually unfolds depends on the market providing direction. Currently, what we need to do is observe whether this trend line can hold. If it can hold, then short-term operations do not need to worry; if it breaks, short-term operations may need to pay attention to risk control. For long-term operations, there is no need for excessive concern; this breakthrough of the previous high eliminates the possibility of a deep pullback. The worst result would be just a wide range of fluctuations, and after the fluctuations and adjustments, the upward trend will continue. Therefore, patiently wait for the direction of the upcoming market movement to be chosen.

$BTC #比特币行情聚焦

$BTC has a wave structure that is hard for everyone to believe. The single sawtooth c wave has formed a spreading end wedge, and then opened a five-wave rising mode.

From the current point of view, it has officially entered an upward trend. If you want to ensure this upward trend, the price of Bitcoin must be maintained above 102509.2.

Once it falls below, it means that $BTC is still in the adjustment stage, so it is inevitable to fall below the 100,000 mark again, and it can even challenge below 89,000, but the overall decline should be limited.

If it does not fall below the key position, look at 111,000 above first. If it can effectively break through here, it will look at 140,000. If it cannot break through here effectively, then you should pay attention to the possibility of a large-scale callback, and you need to pay attention to the risks here.

$BTC $ETH $BNB

I thought Trump's coming to power would be good for the cryptocurrency circle, but who knew that he would actually list memes himself. He is probably the first person in history to issue a coin in this capacity, and he can be recorded in history.

$BTC $ETH $SOL

🚨【CPI data will be released at 21:30 tonight! Monthly and annual rates are lower/higher than expected, affecting the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut】🚨

At 21:30 tonight, the CPI data for December 2024 will be released! 📊 This data is directly related to the Fed's monetary policy and may even affect our future interest rate level! So if the data is lower or higher than expected, what impact will it have on the Fed's interest rate cut? Let's take a look! 👇

1⃣ CPI monthly rate is higher than expected
🔥 Inflationary pressure continues!
If the monthly rate tonight is higher than expected, it means that price increases have not slowed down and inflation is still high! At this time, the Fed may continue to maintain the current high interest rate, and there is almost no hope of a rate cut. 💸

2⃣ CPI monthly rate is lower than expected
✨ Short-term slowdown, expectations of rate cuts are rising!
If the monthly rate is lower than expected, it may be that the short-term pressure of inflation has eased! This will make the market begin to expect that the Fed may cut interest rates, especially in the case of an economic slowdown, the possibility of a rate cut increases. However, the monthly data fluctuates greatly. Whether it will continue depends on the next data! 👀

3⃣ CPI annual rate is higher than expected
🔥 Inflation pressure is still stubborn!
If the annual rate is higher than expected, it means that inflation is still not effectively controlled. The Fed may continue to maintain the current high interest rate, and the possibility of interest rate cuts is very low, which will cause a lack of market liquidity⚠

4⃣ CPI annual rate is lower than expected
🌟 Inflation is slowing down, and expectations of interest rate cuts are rising!
If the annual rate is lower than expected, it means that inflation is slowing down, which provides more room for the Fed to cut interest rates! Especially when economic growth slows, the possibility of interest rate cuts will increase greatly, which means that loan interest rates may fall and usher in an interest rate "spring"! 🌷

🔔 Summary: Tonight's CPI data has a huge impact on the Fed's future policies! Lower than expected may stimulate expectations of interest rate cuts and help economic recovery; higher than expected may mean that high interest rates may be maintained and inflation control is still tight! 💥

💬 What do you think of tonight's CPI data? Do you think the interest rate cut will come faster? Chat in the comments! 👇

$BTC $ETH $BNB

Time has proven that if you wait patiently, the market will not let you down!

The essence of trading is to play games with the main force. As long as you understand the main force's mind, everything will become simple.

The rest is to control your hands, wait patiently for the main force's performance, wait for the right time and position to enter the market, choose a position with a high profit and loss ratio to enter the market, and you will find that it feels really good to eat meat.

And the main force's movements are traceable. Have you found his traces? [馋嘴][馋嘴][馋嘴]

$BTC $ETH $BNB

When there is no market trend, do not add drama to yourself, because you do not know what will happen next.

If you cannot understand the market trend, do not easily enter the market, because in most cases, the top and bottom have not yet been established.

Usually, when at the top and bottom, there will be a period of sideways fluctuation, followed by a breakthrough with increased volume, and the indicators may show divergence. Only after such a top and bottom appears can a reversal be possible.

Limited time Q&A: If you have anything you are unsure about, you can tell me in the comments section, and I will help clarify for you.

$BTC $ETH $BNB

Tonight's data is negative for both! Strong economic growth and high consumer spending have further increased inflationary pressure.
To put it bluntly, these two data have increased the Fed's confidence in not cutting interest rates. This is not good news for the market, because only interest rate cuts can bring liquidity to the market. If you don't cut interest rates, where will the liquidity in the market come from?
Now we have to look at the dot plot for January. If the dot plot can increase by one, two, or three times from the previous two interest rate cuts, it will undoubtedly be a shot in the arm for the market. Otherwise, it will be negative.
Be patient! It's not too late to enter the market when the market gives a signal!

Be a smart audience and watch BTC performance patiently!

Yesterday, Bitcoin continued to drop, and finally reached around 91,200, and the cottage followed the collective flood again! This point was also mentioned in the internal base yesterday. Compared with the boring market on weekends, we still prefer this kind of volatility. On January 6, a bearish indicator appeared near BTC102,200. We followed the indicator to reduce our positions, and then patiently waited for the next indicator to arrive.

When the opportunity comes, we will get on the bus, and if there is no opportunity, we will wait for the opportunity to come. But many people often can't bear their temper. As long as they are short for one minute, they can't stand it and want to operate. Seeing the decline, they dare not get on the bus, and they are afraid of missing out when they go back, so they rush to run into the market, but they never return on the road of being trapped. In fact, the currency circle is really not that difficult. As long as you can be patient and wait for the opportunity to appear, there will always be good returns!

Many people have been on the road of chasing ups and downs. In the final analysis, it is because they cannot grasp the direction of the market, which leads to the roller coaster of the cottage in their hands. Or they don’t buy when they should buy, and don’t sell when they should sell, and finally they are educated by the market. But even if they are tortured like this, there are still many people who do their own thing and change their thinking! Opportunities are not created by your operation, but by your patience!

For example, in the rise of BTC from 91500 to 102600, a treasure listened to the advice and left the market on the eve of the first round of decline, and then waited with empty positions. But in this period of rise, seeing that the cake broke through 100,000, he began to worry, showing the urgency of not getting on the train, and finally couldn’t stand entering the market.

As a result, he woke up the next day and was dumbfounded. The cottage collectively released the flood and fell to the starting point. Now it’s good, and people are completely honest. In fact, as long as he waits patiently for another opportunity, there will be different results, so we must overcome this problem, otherwise we can only stay where we are forever.

Well, I won't say much else. I will share some tips every day, hoping to help those who are destined to read it. The above is purely personal opinion, for reference only, and does not constitute investment advice. If you don't like it, please be merciful. Thank you for your attention and support!

BTC market outlook: The price of pancakes fell again. When will the dawn come?

Data interpretation:
Last night's ADP data was lower than expected, which may boost expectations of interest rate cuts and benefit risky assets such as Bitcoin, but strong initial claims data may limit the market's excessive expectations of interest rate cuts.
At present, we must always pay attention to the interest rate cut meeting in January and Trump's inauguration. The market may fluctuate more during these two times.

Technical aspects:
1. Wave theory: At the 4H level, the current trend shows a single sawtooth pattern, the B wave adjustment has ended, and the C wave is expected to expand further. The C wave has reached the minimum target, but the common target is around 86,600 and 76,600. We should pay special attention to the support level of the C wave trend, especially the position of 71,968. Once it falls below, it may destroy the upward trend at the weekly level.

2. Futures gap: At the daily level, gap 1 has been filled, but gaps 2 and 3 have not yet been filled. The main force may use the current callback opportunity to fill these gaps, especially the overlap of gap 3 and wave 2 callback range, and the possibility of filling is relatively high.

3. Harmonic pattern:
There are two potential bullish patterns in the current trend:
● AB=CD pattern: The potential reversal zone is between 85900-86899.
● Deep-sea crab pattern: The potential reversal zone is between 77659-79466.
Under normal circumstances, the lowest point of the reversal zone needs to be pierced, but considering the diversity of the market, it is recommended to arrange in batches near these two areas.

4. Classical pattern: From the daily level, the market may form a potential head and shoulders top pattern. According to the prediction of this pattern, the decline may reach about 16%, and the target price is about 76800.

● Short-term: According to the rebound demand at the 30-minute level, the pressure levels are 94200, 95000, and 97000 respectively.

Conclusion:
Although the market's pullback may bring some uncertainty in the short term, according to the technical pattern and fundamental trend, the weekly level still maintains an upward trend, and the decline is for a better rise. Before the rise comes, do a good job of reasonable position management, flexibly respond to market fluctuations, maintain confidence in assets such as Bitcoin, and wait for the dawn of the market.

💡 Warm reminder:
The above content is for reference only, and investment should be cautious. The market fluctuates greatly. When making decisions, please make decisions based on your personal risk tolerance, do not blindly follow the trend, and be sure to do a good job of risk control.

ETH market outlook: Breakthrough encounters resistance, short-term correction may become the key, support level analysis!

🔥 Yesterday's market review
ETH price broke through this range of fluctuations after a correction in the range of 3560-3630 yesterday, rising to around 3675, but encountered certain selling pressure at this point. This position happens to be the intersection of two bearish reversal zones. In the short term, ETH may face certain fluctuations and adjustments.

🔍 Technical analysis:

Support level observation: First, we pay attention to whether ETH can stabilize the current fluctuation range. If the price does not fall below this range, it may usher in an opportunity for further rise. If it falls below this range, the next key support level is 3455 (Fib0.382), and continue to pay attention to the market reaction. If the downward pressure increases, it may test the support of the 3320-3391 (Fib0.618) range.

Wave theory analysis: Although the wave theory is not completely accurate in the trend of ETH, we can get some valuable references from it. At present, ETH has risen since 3310 and has completed five waves of rise, and may enter a short-term adjustment phase. If the adjustment is over, ETH is expected to continue to rise, with the target looking at around 3722. If this point is not broken, the market may usher in a correction.

Volume analysis: Although the price of ETH has risen slightly, the trading volume is still low, indicating that the market temporarily lacks strong upward momentum. The recovery of volume will be the key to confirming the upward trend.

📊 Potential reversal signal
If ETH falls back after the rebound, the 12-hour level trend may give a clearer signal. At present, ETH may form a bullish shark pattern, and the reversal range is between 2766-2910, which is worth paying attention to.

⚠️ Cat brother suggestion
Friends who operate in the short term should pay attention to the uncertainty of the current market. Although ETH has not yet shown an obvious top signal, the market is volatile. It is recommended to flexibly adjust positions in the appropriate profit range to avoid excessive exposure to risks.

💡 Warm reminder
The above content is for reference only, and investment should be cautious. The market fluctuates greatly. When making decisions, please make decisions based on your personal risk tolerance, do not blindly follow the trend, and be sure to do a good job of risk control. What do you think about ETH’s short-term trend? Feel free to share your views in the comments section!

BTC market outlook: short-term correction risk and key support level analysis!
🔥 Yesterday's market review
The blog post No. 2 mentioned that 99002 is a short-term pressure level. The highest on the 3rd reached 98977, with a difference of only 25 US dollars. After that, there was a correction and shock. The market is currently showing signs of a downward trend.
🔍 Technical analysis
Support level observation: If BTC can stay above 97220, the short-term upward trend is expected to continue. If it falls below this point, it may further test the support levels of 96350 and 94375.
Wave analysis:
BTC is still in the adjustment stage. There has been no clear driving wave in the rise since 915. There are currently two possible trends:
The decline from 108 to 915 is a single sawtooth pattern, but it is still uncertain whether the C wave is the end wedge;
The rise from 108 to 922 is to promote the 5th wave, and it may be in the B wave rebound.
Assuming that it is currently in the B wave rebound, the B wave may take a joint form and has entered the Y wave. It is expected that the B wave shock period may last until January 19.
Volume analysis:
From the daily chart, BTC has a potential head and shoulders top pattern, and the volume is in line with expectations, and MACD shows a top divergence. At the same time, the rise of the small-level chart is also manifested as a shrinking rise, indicating that the buying power is weak, which may only be a rebound or shock stage, rather than a new upward trend.
📊 Potential reversal signal
If BTC falls below 96,000, it is necessary to pay attention to the Vegas channel at the daily level and the reversal zone near 79,500 (bullish deep-sea crab pattern). At the same time, the futures gap is 77,360-81,210.
⚠ Mao Ge's suggestion
Friends who operate short-term should pay special attention to market uncertainty. Although BTC has not yet shown an obvious top signal, from a structural point of view, the market has downside risks. It is recommended to flexibly adjust positions when profits reach expectations to avoid excessive exposure to risks.
💡 Warm reminder
The above content is for reference only, and investment should be cautious. The market fluctuates greatly. When making decisions, please make decisions based on your personal risk tolerance, do not blindly follow the trend, and be sure to do a good job of risk control. Welcome to share your views on BTC trends in the comment section and discuss together!