BTC market outlook: The price of pancakes fell again. When will the dawn come?

Data interpretation:

Last night's ADP data was lower than expected, which may boost expectations of interest rate cuts and benefit risky assets such as Bitcoin, but strong initial claims data may limit the market's excessive expectations of interest rate cuts.

At present, we must always pay attention to the interest rate cut meeting in January and Trump's inauguration. The market may fluctuate more during these two times.

Technical aspects:

1. Wave theory: At the 4H level, the current trend shows a single sawtooth pattern, the B wave adjustment has ended, and the C wave is expected to expand further. The C wave has reached the minimum target, but the common target is around 86,600 and 76,600. We should pay special attention to the support level of the C wave trend, especially the position of 71,968. Once it falls below, it may destroy the upward trend at the weekly level.

2. Futures gap: At the daily level, gap 1 has been filled, but gaps 2 and 3 have not yet been filled. The main force may use the current callback opportunity to fill these gaps, especially the overlap of gap 3 and wave 2 callback range, and the possibility of filling is relatively high.

3. Harmonic pattern:

There are two potential bullish patterns in the current trend:

● AB=CD pattern: The potential reversal zone is between 85900-86899.

● Deep-sea crab pattern: The potential reversal zone is between 77659-79466.

Under normal circumstances, the lowest point of the reversal zone needs to be pierced, but considering the diversity of the market, it is recommended to arrange in batches near these two areas.

4. Classical pattern: From the daily level, the market may form a potential head and shoulders top pattern. According to the prediction of this pattern, the decline may reach about 16%, and the target price is about 76800.

● Short-term: According to the rebound demand at the 30-minute level, the pressure levels are 94200, 95000, and 97000 respectively.

Conclusion:

Although the market's pullback may bring some uncertainty in the short term, according to the technical pattern and fundamental trend, the weekly level still maintains an upward trend, and the decline is for a better rise. Before the rise comes, do a good job of reasonable position management, flexibly respond to market fluctuations, maintain confidence in assets such as Bitcoin, and wait for the dawn of the market.

💡 Warm reminder:

The above content is for reference only, and investment should be cautious. The market fluctuates greatly. When making decisions, please make decisions based on your personal risk tolerance, do not blindly follow the trend, and be sure to do a good job of risk control.