黑马斯坦

2025.4.16.BTC.ETH.Intraday Market Analysis
Bitcoin's recent decline has just touched the support near 83000. The current market is experiencing a daily-level fluctuation. Last night, I told the brothers that we should look for support at 83000 and defend the support at 82000. As long as these two levels are not broken, the market is undergoing a normal pullback, and there is a chance to go up. The first support has already been touched. Whether the market can go up depends on whether the upper pressure at 84500 can stabilize. The rebound pressure is first observed at this level. If the four-hour closing price is above 84500, this four-hour-level pullback will be completed, and there is a chance for a second attempt to break through the 86000 pressure. Before the four-hour level stabilizes at 84500, do not easily take a long position, as this indicates that the market has not completed its pullback and is only experiencing a minor rebound, with the possibility of further decline. The long position strategy: Try in the range of 82000-81000, and set a stop loss to prevent a spike near 79000. If it has not declined to that level, you must wait for the four-hour level to stabilize at 84500 before considering it.
ETH
Currently, Ethereum's four-hour level has also turned bearish. In the short term, watch the rebound pressure at 1610. The market must stabilize at this price level for it to have a chance to continue rising. A conservative long position can be considered once the four-hour level stabilizes at 1610, with targets at 1650 and 1690. Do not easily take a long position before it stabilizes; you can wait for a second decline in the range of 1505-1470 to build a long position.

2025.4.15.BTC.ETH.Intraday Market Analysis
BTC
The four-hour break occurred the night before last, it dipped slightly and then recovered. Last night was the same; it broke at twelve and recovered by four. At four in the morning, the four-hour support stabilized again. Currently, we are watching whether it can break the resistance at 86000. The short-term support for pullbacks is still at 84500. As long as the four-hour closing line does not break down again, there is always a chance to re-challenge the 86000 resistance. If it breaks, look for 87500 and 88300. You can try short positions near 88300. The key intraday position is at 84500. The bullish and bearish trends reference 84500. If the four-hour closing line breaks below 84500 again, long positions should exit first, with lower support at 83000, 82000, and 81000.
ETH
The bullish pattern for ETH is better, with short-term pullback support at 1630, defense at 1610. Pullbacks near this range can be attempted for long positions, as long as the one-hour closing line does not break the defensive support. The market can continue to look for a rebound with upper target pressures at 1690 and 1730. If the four-hour closing line breaks below 1610, this bullish rebound pattern will deteriorate, and long positions should exit, continuing to look for lower support at $BTC #比特币与美国关税政策 .

BTC.ETH. Night Market Analysis
BTC
Good evening, brothers. This wave of four-hour level rise for Bitcoin has been hindered. Tonight, it briefly approached the daily resistance near 86000 but quickly pulled back. If we cannot break through the daily resistance at 86000, the market will likely move sideways at the daily level, in the range of 86000-83000, with defensive support at 81800. This range will form fluctuations. So, brothers, do not rush to open long positions; at least wait until near 81800 to try small positions, and only if the defensive support holds, will there be a chance to go up. Once 81800 is broken, the market is likely to spike down to wash out long positions, as the weekly chart has not yet started to retrace this week. The spike location may be in the range of 80000-79000, where positions can be built for long trades. Short-term support and resistance for the night are at 84500. If the four-hour closes again stabilizing at 84500, the market may try to challenge the 86000 resistance again. Once this resistance is broken, the next important resistances are near 87500 and 88300. Currently, the four-hour chart has not stabilized at 84500. Until the four-hour closes and stabilizes at 84500, we will look for a pullback to the downside, with target supports at 83000, 81800, and 81000.
ETH
Ethereum is doing a bit better, at least it surged to the high of 1690 in the afternoon and has now pulled back to the four-hour support near 1625. The four-hour support has not temporarily broken, so we first look at the rebound resistance near 1650 and 1690. At least the four-hour level needs to stabilize at 1650 to have a chance to break 1700. If the rebound cannot break 1650, the market will continue to weaken and move downward, with target supports continuing to look at 1560, 1500, and 1470. Long positions can be monitored near these levels.

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2025.4.14.BTC.ETH.Intraday Market Analysis
BTC

The market is still strong. Last night, there were two dips around the support at 82800, which recovered, completing a four-hour level correction. Today is Monday, and from the weekly perspective, it has not yet retested. Therefore, this wave of increase is only at the four-hour level, with short-term support at 84200. As long as the one-hour close does not fall below this level, the market can continue to look for a rebound, with the upper target resistance initially at 86000 and 88300. If it can reach around 88300, one might consider shorting, as 88300 is a critical support and resistance level. Since Trump has postponed tariffs for 90 days, whether it can rally will depend on these three months. Brothers, remember that once the weekly stabilizes around the 88300 resistance, the market will aggressively liquidate shorts, with expectations between 90000 and 100000. Therefore, shorting should only be considered before the weekly stabilizes around the 88300 resistance. Once the weekly stabilizes around 88300, the strategy needs to change, and do not easily look for shorts. If today’s one-hour close first falls below 84200, there is no need to rush into long positions; wait for around 82000 to attempt a small long position, with protective stop orders in the range of 80000-79000. If it dips into this range, one can establish long positions.
ETH
Currently, ETH is also in a four-hour level upward wave, with short-term support at 1610. As long as the one-hour close does not fall below this level, the market can continue to look for a rebound, with the upper target resistance at 1690 and 1730. If the one-hour level dips below the 1610 support, long positions should exit first, and one should look for lower support at 1560, 1500, and 1470. For a more cautious approach, one can wait to establish positions near the second and third support levels.

2025.4.13.BTC.ETH..Intraday Market Analysis
BTC
Currently, Bitcoin is experiencing a pullback after hitting a high resistance level. The short-term support is around 84000. Short positions can be reduced or exited near this level. The key factor is whether the four-hour closing will fall below 84000. As long as the four-hour closing does not break below this level, there is a possibility for the market to continue pushing higher, with the target resistance still looking at 86000 and 88000. If the four-hour closing falls below 84000, then this wave of four-hour gains will end, and we can look for a second test of lower support around 82800-81800. Conservative long positions can be monitored around these two levels.
ETH
Ethereum has just tested the support at 1598, which is relatively key. As long as the four-hour closing does not break this support, the market will continue to push higher. From the daily chart perspective, it shouldn't drop too much in the short term. The upper resistance to watch is 1630. The one-hour closing needs to break this resistance to add positions again, with targets at 1668 and 1730.
Note ⚠️: Do not blindly add positions before stabilizing above 1630 on the one-hour chart, as it is uncertain whether the four-hour closing will break below 1598. Once the four-hour closing falls below 1598, the market weakens, with lower target support around 1545, 1500, and 1470.

2025.4.12.BTC.ETH.Intraday Market Analysis
BTC
After a wave of price increase yesterday, the market has not seen much volatility, and since it hasn't dipped down from the high level, it indicates that this wave of rebound is not over yet. My target for this rebound is around 88000. As long as the pattern does not deteriorate, we only need to pay attention to the support at 81600. As long as the four-hour closing does not break this position, the market will still look for a rebound. The short-term pressure is in the range of 84500-85500. Once broken, we will look at around 88000. Currently, there are no trades to be made in this small-level consolidation, and no buying points. Let's see if we can retest around 81600. If we can retest this position, aggressive traders can try long positions, but if the four-hour level breaks this position, exit manually. The second scenario is if the one-hour closing breaks 83500, try a light long position, with a stop at 82700. Target 84500.85500.
ETH
Although ETH is weak, it really can't go up. Fortunately, the four-hour support has not broken yet. Currently, the four-hour trend is still a rebound trend. After a night of consolidation, the small-level pullback has completed, and the current price is 1568. Aggressive traders can try a light long position, with a stop at 1540. Target around 1590.1630. If the four-hour closing breaks below 1540, this wave of rebound will end, with support at 1500-1470 near these two positions.
SOL
The daily level rebound for SOL has currently reached the pressure near 125. Pay attention to the small-level support at 121 and 117. If these two positions are not broken on the pullback, we can continue to look for a rebound, with rebound pressure at 125, 130, and 136. The rebound will only be considered ended if the four-hour closing breaks below 117. The support below is at 112 and 107.
BNB
BNB has started to rebound at the daily level, with support at around 580. As long as the four-hour closing does not break this position, the market will look for a rebound, with target pressure at 600 and 620. Before the four-hour closing does not break 580, be cautious about bearish views, with a stop at 565. If it dips down, aggressive traders can try to enter long positions around $SOL .

2025.4.11.BTC.ETH.Intraday Market Analysis
BTC
Good afternoon, brothers. I am Master Zhao, the eternal profit maker. I really had a few drinks last night and couldn't find my way around, which delayed my analysis for you guys. Fortunately, I released a strategy for you in the afternoon yesterday, and this pullback just happened to reach the right position. It's normal for the market to reach a high and then pull back; this is a normal pullback. Please, spring brothers, don't run out to spread negativity just because it dips a little more. It's disgusting to watch. If you don't want to see it, just unfollow.
This wave of decline just happens to let you guys hop on board. Currently, Bitcoin is making a secondary push to a high, with the upper target pressure first looking at 83,500. This rebound is a daily level rebound, and as long as this pullback doesn't break the position, and the four-hour close doesn’t fall below 81,000, we can expect this rebound to reach around 88,300. For those holding long positions, pay attention to this pullback; if it doesn’t break 81,000, you can continue to hold your long positions. Near 83,500, you can consider reducing your position. The next pressure levels are at 85,500 and 88,300. For short positions, it is recommended to wait near these two levels.
ETH
The altcoin just happened to pull back to the support near 1,482, allowing you guys to hop on board. Currently, there is continuous pressure from the four-hour chart that is preventing a breakout. Pay close attention to this pressure at 1,580. Whether the four-hour close can stabilize above this level is crucial. If the four-hour close can break this pressure, the market will have a wave of secondary highs, and you might consider taking a small long position. The upper target pressures are at 1,627 and 1,689. Note ⚠️ Until the four-hour close breaks 1,580, the market is not stable, so do not be too aggressive. The defensive support is at 1,546. If the hourly close falls below this position, the rebound will end, with the lower support being tested at 1,470, 1,390, 1,489, and 1,101, 1,122.

2025.4.10.BTC.ETH Intraday Market Analysis
BTC: The Sino-US tariff trade countermeasures have reached a pause, as Trump just implemented new measures this morning, and the Chinese side immediately retaliated. They even add another move to undermine you: when you come here to buy things, not only is there no signing fee, but it's also cheaper, and when you go back, you'll get a tax refund. By the evening, the Americans couldn't hold back anymore, urgently calling for a halt, postponing for 90 days. The global financial market began to surge, and Bitcoin was no exception. In the next three months, almost all the bearish news has been digested, and there shouldn't be any major negative news. Whether Bitcoin can make a second high will depend on these three months. Fortunately, for the past two days, I've been reminding everyone to position long positions. Currently, the daily resistance for Bitcoin has broken through, so pay attention to the support range of 80000-79500 during a pullback. If it pulls back without breaking this support range, the market will continue to experience a daily-level rebound, and if it can pull back into this range, you can still try to build a long position. This daily-level rebound can aim for around 88300. Once the weekly chart breaks the resistance at 88300, the market will welcome a second wave of highs, around ninety to one hundred thousand. Therefore, those with such low-cost chips in hand must hold on tight; if you're right, there's a big profit. If it doesn't break through, we don't lose, right? If today's market trends wash out the long positions and break the 79500 support, you can continue to increase long positions by 1% at 77000-74500. For the next three months, just betting on this one-sided market is enough.
ETH
ETH's daily resistance has not yet broken through. Pay attention to the support around 1530 during a pullback. As long as it doesn't break this support, the market can continue to look for a rebound, with rebound resistance at 1711 and 1800. If it pulls back and closes below 1530 on the four-hour level, this rebound will also end. Continue to pay attention to the lower support of 1482 and 1389. If it pulls back into this range, you can build long positions.

2025.4.9.BTC.ETH.Intraday Market Analysis
BTC
The big coin just dipped down to around 74500, which is two hundred points away from the support level I provided to my brothers last night. This dip can be considered a second low test, and currently, on the hourly level, it is starting to rebound. The current price is 76400, and an aggressive 1% position can be entered first, with the rebound target resistance initially set at 77500 and 78300. If the four-hour closing can break the 78300 resistance, an additional 2% position can be added, with the target resistance looking at 81000. Wait to add positions once the daily line stabilizes.
Note ⚠️ Before blindly adding positions, this rebound cannot be considered stable until the four-hour closing breaks and stabilizes above 78300. The market is not considered stable, and the rebound strength will not be too great. Pay attention to the secondary low test support at 74500. Similarly, this position can accommodate a 1% position, and if it falls below, a 2% position can be added around 68000.
ETH
The little coin's lowest dip was 1380. The support for adding positions I provided is at 1360. Currently, at 1410, those who are entering should pay attention to the rebound resistance at 1497 and 1530. Once the four-hour closing entity breaks above 1530, an additional 1% position can be added, with the rebound target resistance looking around 1630. Before the four-hour closing breaks above 1530, no additional positions should be added. Continue to pay attention to the support levels below at 1360 and 1080. These two positions can accommodate a 2% position.

2025.4.8.BTC.ETH.Intraday Market Analysis
BTC
$BTC $ETH The night market continues to rebound and oscillate upwards. Yesterday, it started to rebound near 74500 and has rebounded more than 5000 points since then. Now thinking back, if I had jumped in yesterday, I would have made a profit. I didn't know earlier. When I told everyone to enter the position yesterday, you might have thought, 'This idiot, it's dropped so much, and he's still telling everyone to go long.' Now that the market has turned, you're regretting not getting in. Aren't you being foolish?
Currently, the market is still undergoing a four-hour level rebound, indicating that this rebound is not over yet. Watch for a pullback support at 79000. As long as the four-hour closing does not fall below this level, the market will continue to rebound at the four-hour level, with upward rebound resistance at 81100, 82200, and 83500. Short positions can be attempted near the second and third resistance levels. If it hasn't reached the resistance level, wait for a four-hour closing to break below 79000 for this rebound to be considered over. The lower support is still at 77000 and 74500. The entry points below still refer to the levels given to the brothers last night.
ETH
ETH just rebounded to the resistance level of around 1630 provided last night, now watching to see if the lower support at 1545 will be broken. As long as the one-hour closing does not fall below 1545, the market can continue to look for a rebound, with unchanged rebound resistance at 1630, 1690, and 1750. If this pullback closes below 1540 on the one-hour level, this small-level rebound will end, and we will continue to look for lower support at 1478 and 1416.

2025.4.7.BTC.ETH Intraday Market Analysis
BTC
At a historic moment of global crash, global stock markets are plummeting, the tariff trade war is escalating, and Trump’s actions have caused 99% of the global population to suffer. U.S. stocks have even experienced circuit breakers, which is rare in history. Bitcoin in the crypto world is still relatively strong. This wave of decline has just hit the previous low near 76500, a position I mentioned in yesterday's analysis to my friends. Friends, don’t worry about whether there is a limit down; as long as you manage your position well, there shouldn’t be big issues. For those who haven’t entered yet, you can refer to the following strategy:
Head position at 76500 with 1% of your capital, second position at 73000 with 2% of your capital, third position at 65000 with 3% of your capital. As long as you manage your position well, you can attack when you enter and defend when you retreat.
ETH
I mentioned last week that once ETH drops, it will directly dip to around 1530, with no support in between. Many friends were incredulous, but look, it accurately tested that level this morning. You dared to buy at 2000 for ETH, but you won’t dare to buy at 1530? When the price reaches that point, it’s up to you to take the risk. At least the cost performance is maximized. Manage your position well, and enter at around 1530 for the head position. Just avoid hitting the previous low of $BTC . As long as you don’t hit it, a rebound of a couple of hundred points shouldn’t be a big issue. If you do hit it, there are several supports below at 1360, 1000, and 800. Haha, you can enter in batches at these positions.

Let's objectively look at the performance of various cryptocurrencies based on data, mainly focusing on mainstream cryptocurrencies. If I haven't covered everything, please feel free to add.
The time period is from Trump's election to today, for statistical convenience from 2024.11.4 to today.
btc 66800-79200 eth 2357-1600
bnb 543-564
sol 155-107
xrp 0.4957-1.9263
sui 1.79-1.92
ada 0.32-0.57
aave 125-129
om 1.25-6.1
ton 4.5-2.9
zro 2.9-2.5
doge 0.148-0.149
ray 3.12-1.57
pendle 4.04-2.65
arb 0.4597-0.2751
mkr 1106-1156
shib 1639-1148
op 1.299-0.614
zk 0.1117-0.0521
strk 0.3272-0.1241 (This project was invested in by Vitalik)
pixel 0.1322-0.02122
ordi 29-6
While calculating, my heart is bleeding; the more I calculate, the more it hurts. Let's just leave it at that. This round of market is really a meat grinder. If you held BTC, XRP, BNB, AAVE, OM, SUI, ADA, etc. from earlier times, you wouldn't be losing. The others either numb your hands or feet, and some coins make your whole body numb!!! If you can lose 10-20%, you can still outperform 80% of people. If you can still make money, then you've outperformed 95%-99% of people. The percentage is my own guess, and I haven't done statistical analysis.
You really can't blame Trump for this; at this stage, he can't even save the U.S. stock market, let alone the altcoins in the crypto space. #加密市场回调 $BTC

2025.4.6.BTC.ETH.SOL.BNB.Intraday market analysis
BTC
Currently, the market has been trading sideways below the four-hour pressure of 83,500. The overall bullish strength is not too strong. Let's first look at the lower defensive support of 81,200. Don't break this position. If you don't break this position, it will not go down in the short term. The upper long and short pressure is at 83,500. As long as the four-hour level closing can stabilize this pressure again, the rebound will be stronger. For aggressive positions, you can try a 2% position position, and defend around 81,500 with a 3% stop loss of 81,000. The upper target pressure is 84,500.85,500. If these two pressures can stabilize, the target can be rushed to 88 000, if this wave of decline knocks down our long orders, this wave of market will have to go down for the second time, and long orders can be opened in the range of 78200-76500
ETH
At present, it is oscillating in the range of 1750-1840. The focus is on which side will be broken first. If the stable type waits for the daily line to stabilize at 1840 tomorrow, then this wave of market will continue to follow the daily rebound trend. The upper pressure can be seen at 1900.1950. Near these two positions, if it falls below the support of 1750, which market will be the second wave of decline, you can see the pin position near 1530, and the intraday short-term can try to eat the rebound near 1750, and only shoot near 1730. $BTC

The entire market, including American society, has expressed great dissatisfaction with Trump's radical tariff policy, and the American public has begun to take to the streets to protest. Data shows that due to the sharp decline in U.S. stocks, the global top 500 billionaires lost $536 billion in assets in one week, setting a new historical record. In particular, several tech tycoons, who never expected that after Trump's inauguration they would go on to donate money to congratulate him, were caught off guard by this blow. For the cryptocurrency market, since Trump took office, the market value has shrunk by several tens of millions of dollars, which is quite frustrating.
Every time at this moment, I think of one person, and that's old man Buffett. Before this round of decline, Buffett had raised the proportion of cash on hand to a new high, and the previous sell-off was mocked by outsiders, but now it seems that the old fox is wise. However, there doesn't seem to be any news of the old man making a move yet; perhaps for him, he is waiting for a financial crisis triggered by the U.S. stock market, at which point it will truly be a land of opportunity.
The undeniable fact is that the subsequent impact of this tariff protection policy is hard to estimate, leading to a very pessimistic sentiment, but the cyclical nature of the market is also an objective fact. Just like the old man selling high and holding cash, he has also frequently purchased assets during moments of despair in the market. For us, increasing our holdings in a bear market and finding ways to make our coins multiply is the way not to waste the opportunities brought by the market's crazy decline.
In terms of market conditions, due to the U.S. stock market being closed for two days over the weekend, the cryptocurrency sector is likely to remain sideways. The current market may hope for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, but there is currently no related news released. Next week's market will be a bigger challenge because if the two-day buffer period cannot give U.S. stocks a breather and they continue to decline sharply, the U.S. stock market will experience a dark moment of liquidity exhaustion and lack of market confidence, and at that time, the cryptocurrency sector will likely struggle to stay unaffected. If there is still capital available, consider next week's situation before deciding whether to add, while others can just hold their spot. There is no need to cut losses at this time; we have already reached the desperate bottom range.
Thank you for your attention and likes. $BTC

Since 1.20, the BTC trend has been dominated by bears (altcoins turned bearish since 12.19), and there has been no change, nor is there likely to be a reversal in the short term. A trend reversal requires very strong positive stimuli or positive expectations to drive it. Before a trend reverses, as long as it pauses and rebounds near support points, it can be strategically shorted according to the rules. However, shorting every day requires skill; it's not just about starting to decline and then shorting, but rather respecting the resistance levels before shorting.
Recently, we have had a 100% win rate for over 10 days, and a 73.3% win rate over the past 30 days. This is because our mindset has become more peaceful, avoiding arrogance and impatience, which naturally improves our state. We open positions almost every day following the rhythm of fluctuations, not chasing longs during rebounds, nor chasing shorts when retesting lows. We have been timely in taking profits and cutting losses, and we have started to emphasize trading discipline, which is an area of improvement compared to before. In the past two years, we primarily focused on low longs, as the overall trend was upward, and short-term trading didn’t emphasize strict rules as much. Now, however, as we are in the latter half of a bull market or at the cusp of a bull-bear transition, neglecting trading discipline is not an option. Being able to earn a little every day and survive in this current market makes you luckier than most traders. In the last 4-5 weeks, we have also taken some low long positions, such as after the significant dip from 3.7-3.11 with a new low of 76560, followed by over two weeks of daily rebounds. During these rebounds, we have made several low long trades. Aside from that, most of the time we are still shorting rebounds.
Since February, we have been using formulas to calculate rebound waves and downward waves for short-term trades, making short-term trading much smoother than before, sometimes with BTC being accurate within 3 points. Since Bollinger Bands are also dynamic indicators that are constantly changing, especially since February, the changes have been quite significant. If you are trading medium-term trends and only looking for points based on price action, there can be considerable deviation. The Fibonacci levels only provide relatively more accurate points when they are real-time. Therefore, when volatility is slightly larger, using formulas to calculate can correct errors and clarify short and medium-term directions.
Every day we calculate rebounds and pullbacks, just like opening a business; we check the inventory list daily. Although it’s a bit tiring, if you want to make money, there's no way to slack off. We must be responsible for everyone. I hope we all get better and better! $BTC

$BTC Everyone may have forgotten one point, which is that Trump is a very capable person, smarter than the average person, strategic, high IQ, and experienced. If you think he is dumber than us, then nine times out of ten, it is us who are wrong.
I increasingly feel that his tariff war might win, bringing tremendous benefits to the United States, making it stronger, and the U.S. stock market is likely to experience a century-level rebound.
Over the weekend, I kept hearing that countries are yielding to Trump's tariff policies, and the countries choosing to surrender on tariffs are becoming mainstream. Australia, India, New Zealand, the Philippines, Cambodia, and Israel have directly softened their stance, indicating acceptance. European countries are already fragmented with their own thoughts, while our neighboring country Vietnam's Secretary Su Lin directly called the United States, expressing willingness to reduce tariffs on the U.S. to zero. Currently, the only country announcing retaliatory tariff increases in the world is China.
Do not underestimate Vietnam. According to U.S. data, Vietnam's trade surplus with the U.S. will reach $123.5 billion in 2024, second only to China, the EU, and Mexico. It is definitely a major trading power with the U.S., so Vietnam's statement holds significant demonstration significance.
Objectively speaking, if the majority of countries in the world choose to accept reciprocal tariffs, after the decrease in tariffs by the United States, it will certainly benefit U.S. exports! The competitiveness of foreign trade exports will skyrocket, and the export volume may rapidly rise, leading U.S. companies to make huge profits! Correspondingly, government tax revenue will start to increase significantly! Then for imports, the U.S. is the world's largest market. Although it has significantly raised tariffs, countries still need to export to the U.S. They cannot give up this market, so U.S. tariff revenue will soar!
U.S. export companies making huge profits + U.S. government tax revenue increases + U.S. government tariff increases = The U.S. government and businesses are getting richer! With wealth, naturally, all other issues become trivial. Issues such as American residents not being able to buy Chinese TVs or not finding slippers and toys in supermarkets will be easily resolved.
Of course, this should be good news for the cryptocurrency sector. As the U.S. economy grows, the U.S. stock market will definitely rebound strongly, and the cryptocurrency market, which has always followed the U.S. stock market, should also be able to ride the coattails and improve! So perhaps the current difficulties are just the pains of a profound transformation. Let us wait and see!

Trading often requires an open-minded attitude. Once we have prepared our methods, our funds, and our understanding, and set our annual targets, we should not be anxious or search high and low. Haste makes waste; we should hold our ground and wait for the opportunity to enter the market, wait for the trend to begin, and wait for good things to happen. Trading is a process of internal cultivation.

It's currently brewing, and the next main upward wave is about to begin! If all goes well, May to June; if slower, the second half of the year. Start entering the market, the bull market is still here, so sit tight.
1. U.S. tariffs and Federal Reserve policy direction
Trump's tariff increases boost U.S. fiscal revenue, which can lead to inflation. In the context of stable GDP growth, inflation isn't a major concern. Trump's call for interest rate cuts is an attempt to shift responsibility to the Federal Reserve. He argues that to make America stronger, he has increased fiscal revenue, but now the U.S. stock market is down, and the economy is experiencing a brief downturn, so the Federal Reserve should cut rates. The Federal Reserve must maintain its independence and cannot immediately cut rates, but it has already taken steps to reduce its balance sheet from $25 billion to $5 billion. Additionally, bond auction methods are also indirectly lowering rates; facing expectations of economic recession, they are hesitant to take the blame. Ultimately, a rate cut is necessary; today's speech also mentioned that the 2% inflation expectation may loosen. Before March, there was not such a high probability of rate cuts; the news came in April (I believe there is a high chance of four cuts this year), which is also a preliminary indication. Finally, when the U.S. cuts rates, expands its balance sheet, liquidity will follow.
2. U.S. stocks
I mainly look at the Nasdaq in comparison to the S&P and Dow Jones. The last monthly level correction for the Nasdaq was from 16,000 to 11,000, a drop of 5,000 points. This time, it went from 20,000 to 16,000; technically, it could drop to around 14,000, meaning there is still a 10% drop potential. Looking at the recent declines in U.S. stocks, the performance of Bitcoin shows that it is stronger; Bitcoin might drop a maximum of 10% to 74,000, but it may not even reach 74,000. 76,500 could be the bottom, and it is currently in the second buying range.
3. Bitcoin's performance
Setting aside international finance, Bitcoin is just being mischievous; not focusing on Bitcoin's fluctuations while ignoring altcoins shows a lack of interconnected thinking. The wave structure and indicators for Bitcoin on a weekly level all point to a rebound; there are at most 3-4 weeks of adjustment left. Even if it drops to 740, buying is good; it may not reach 780-760, which would be the bottom. April is an opportunity to build positions, so buy on dips.
I still insist that now is the opportunity to enter before takeoff. Enter Bitcoin at 820-800, keep a good position at 780-740; if it drops to that level, buy in; if it doesn’t, pursue right-side positions later.
Predictions do not consider black swans or gray rhinos, which can't be anticipated. Just analyze Bitcoin; altcoins will follow, so lower the expectations for price increases.
Waiting for the wind to rise!!! #鲍威尔发言 #加密市场回调