It's currently brewing, and the next main upward wave is about to begin! If all goes well, May to June; if slower, the second half of the year. Start entering the market, the bull market is still here, so sit tight.
1. U.S. tariffs and Federal Reserve policy direction
Trump's tariff increases boost U.S. fiscal revenue, which can lead to inflation. In the context of stable GDP growth, inflation isn't a major concern. Trump's call for interest rate cuts is an attempt to shift responsibility to the Federal Reserve. He argues that to make America stronger, he has increased fiscal revenue, but now the U.S. stock market is down, and the economy is experiencing a brief downturn, so the Federal Reserve should cut rates. The Federal Reserve must maintain its independence and cannot immediately cut rates, but it has already taken steps to reduce its balance sheet from $25 billion to $5 billion. Additionally, bond auction methods are also indirectly lowering rates; facing expectations of economic recession, they are hesitant to take the blame. Ultimately, a rate cut is necessary; today's speech also mentioned that the 2% inflation expectation may loosen. Before March, there was not such a high probability of rate cuts; the news came in April (I believe there is a high chance of four cuts this year), which is also a preliminary indication. Finally, when the U.S. cuts rates, expands its balance sheet, liquidity will follow.
2. U.S. stocks
I mainly look at the Nasdaq in comparison to the S&P and Dow Jones. The last monthly level correction for the Nasdaq was from 16,000 to 11,000, a drop of 5,000 points. This time, it went from 20,000 to 16,000; technically, it could drop to around 14,000, meaning there is still a 10% drop potential. Looking at the recent declines in U.S. stocks, the performance of Bitcoin shows that it is stronger; Bitcoin might drop a maximum of 10% to 74,000, but it may not even reach 74,000. 76,500 could be the bottom, and it is currently in the second buying range.
3. Bitcoin's performance
Setting aside international finance, Bitcoin is just being mischievous; not focusing on Bitcoin's fluctuations while ignoring altcoins shows a lack of interconnected thinking. The wave structure and indicators for Bitcoin on a weekly level all point to a rebound; there are at most 3-4 weeks of adjustment left. Even if it drops to 740, buying is good; it may not reach 780-760, which would be the bottom. April is an opportunity to build positions, so buy on dips.
I still insist that now is the opportunity to enter before takeoff. Enter Bitcoin at 820-800, keep a good position at 780-740; if it drops to that level, buy in; if it doesn’t, pursue right-side positions later.
Predictions do not consider black swans or gray rhinos, which can't be anticipated. Just analyze Bitcoin; altcoins will follow, so lower the expectations for price increases.
