华阳论币

Bitcoin's intraday rebound continues, with the trend maintaining a range-bound upward movement. In the morning, the price surged to around 87,500 but failed to stabilize and break through, subsequently entering a correction. It is currently trading around 84,000, gradually erasing previous gains. The short-hour chart shows that the price is operating near the middle axis of the four-hour Bollinger Bands, indicating a test of the middle axis support trend. The 4-hour MACD shows signs of a death cross, and the KDJ three lines are all pointing downwards. Today, the key focus is on the 84,000 level for a long-short battle; if it stabilizes, the price may rise again; if it fails to stabilize, the price may head towards the 81,000 mark. The overall trend is still around range-bound fluctuations, but the range has shifted upward. It is recommended to primarily take short positions, with some long positions as a supplement.

Long positions can be taken at 84,500-84,700, targeting around 82,500.

Ethereum can be shorted at 1,990-2,020, targeting around 1,900.

The Bitcoin daily chart shows that after a consolidation on Saturday, the price was blocked around the mid-band yesterday and rebounded after retesting the 82000 area, which aligns with the previous support outlook. After the market opened today, the rebound once again stabilized above the 7-day moving average, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing and flattening, and the mid-band forming short-term resistance. The MACD fast and slow lines crossed upwards at a low level, with a slight increase in volume, and the KDJ crossed upwards, requiring attention to the resistance near the 100 level, while the VR indicator is consolidating around the 60 level. The 4-hour chart shows that after a washout in the early morning, the price rebounded again to test the mid-band and short-term moving averages, with the Bollinger Bands in a narrowing state, and the short-term moving averages operating around the mid-band. The MACD fast and slow lines are turning downwards, with signs of a reversal near the 0 axis, while the KDJ is turning upwards, and the VR indicator is consolidating around the 70 level. Overall, the previous high area above is blocked, which also serves as resistance from the daily mid-band. Therefore, for the short term, this area should be the focus. If broken, attention should be paid to the resistance below 87000, while the support still refers to the 82000 area. It is suggested to remain vigilant in the short term.

Bitcoin can be shorted in the range of 83700-84000, targeting around 81000.

Ethereum can be shorted in the range of 1920-1930, targeting around 1800.

The short position is still so strong, directly 78,000 ​#Strategy申请发行优先股 #BBVA获批提供BTC及ETH交易 #鲸鱼囤币

The latest dynamics of the cryptocurrency market are as follows:

Significant Price Fluctuations

- First Decline, Then Rise, Then Decline: Bitcoin's price first fell below $80,000 on February 27. Following Trump's statement on March 2 about advancing the establishment of a cryptocurrency reserve including Bitcoin, Bitcoin briefly rose to $95,000. However, a sharp decline occurred again on March 4.

- Mainstream Cryptocurrencies Decline: Ethereum plummeted 16% on March 4, falling to $2,100; Solana crashed to $143.05 after the decline on March 4.

Policy Impact

- Trump's Cryptocurrency Policy: On March 2, Trump announced the inclusion of XRP, SOL, and ADA into the U.S. cryptocurrency reserve, causing the prices of related cryptocurrencies to soar. The White House will also hold its first cryptocurrency summit on March 7 to discuss topics such as regulatory policy simplification, stablecoin management, and Bitcoin reserve plans.

- Ongoing Regulatory Concerns: The market worries that the new cryptocurrency regulatory framework from the Trump administration may restrict institutional holdings of crypto assets, leading to panic selling by investors.

Capital Flow

- ETF Capital Outflow: Since late February, Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant outflows, with February's Bitcoin index fund experiencing $3.4 billion in capital outflow.

- Return of Traditional Financial Capital: Recent data shows that cryptocurrency ETPs experienced their first net outflow in 19 weeks, amounting to $415 million, indicating a clear trend of capital returning to traditional sectors such as the stock market.

Impact of Security Incidents

The world's second-largest crypto service provider, CEX Bybit, suffered a hacker attack in February, with $1.46 billion worth of Ethereum stolen by hackers. This incident intensified the panic among market participants and raised concerns about the security of digital tokens on trading platforms.

On Friday, a small bearish candle with a long lower shadow was formed, followed by a price rebound above the upper and lower bands. On Saturday and Sunday, two consecutive bullish candles were recorded. Yesterday, a large bullish candle directly surged to test the mid-band resistance. From a technical perspective, there is not much to analyze, showing a clear one-sided upward trend, with multiple top-bottom transitions reflecting overall strength. The current overall low point remains at the previous high, and the potential for a pullback may gradually increase, but overall it is still in a bullish consolidation phase. Given the strong upward movement during the day and the break of new highs, a short-term pullback may occur, followed by a stabilization and recovery of lost ground. It is recommended to time the positions and layout in batches. From the four-hour chart, the current 4-hour chart has the momentum to break new highs again, with continuous winding and consolidation, as the lows gradually rise, waiting for the breakout to open up upward space.

For Bitcoin, it is recommended to buy near 92700-92500 with a target of 95000.

For Ethereum, it is recommended to buy near 2410-2400 with a target of 2500.

The rise of Bitcoin last night (from March 2 to March 3) was mainly driven by the following factors:

Policy Support
US President Trump announced late night on March 2 that cryptocurrencies such as XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) would be included in the US cryptocurrency reserves, and signed an executive order to establish a digital asset research task force. This statement was seen by the market as further recognition of cryptocurrencies by the government, directly boosting investor confidence and driving the prices of Bitcoin and related currencies to soar.

Market Sentiment and Technical Resonance
Bitcoin previously formed strong support around $82,000, attracting a large amount of dip buying after a short-term overselling. Technically, the price breaking through key resistance levels (such as $86,000) triggered market chasing sentiment, coupled with a significant increase in 24-hour trading volume, indicating active capital inflows.

Bullish Expectations from Institutions and Macroeconomic Environment
Several institutions (such as Standard Chartered Bank and Ark Invest) have continuously raised their long-term price targets for Bitcoin. Combined with the strengthening expectations of global economic recovery, investor risk appetite has rebounded, with some funds shifting from traditional markets to cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the easing of US inflation data and rising expectations for interest rate cuts (with an 80% probability of a cut in June) also provide macro support for Bitcoin.

Market Hotspots and Capital Game
The rise in Bitcoin prices has driven the entire cryptocurrency market to move in tandem, with mainstream currencies such as Ethereum also rising simultaneously. At the same time, the accumulation behavior of some large institutions (such as "whales" on Coinbase) has intensified short-term price volatility, leading to drastic fluctuations in the contract market, with over 170,000 people liquidated within 24 hours, further increasing market heat.

Summary: Trump's policy statements ignited market sentiment, technical breakthroughs and institutional capital inflows resonated, combined with macroeconomic benefits, jointly driving Bitcoin to rise rapidly in the short term. However, it should be noted that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and changes in policy and technical aspects may trigger subsequent correction risks.

In the context of an oversold rebound pattern, the four-hour K-line shows a V-shaped reversal, and the price has successfully broken through the short-term moving averages. Currently, the downward cycles from the four-hour level indicate that short-term bulls hold the advantage, but this round of rebound is still in the early stages following a decline. The daily level large cycle remains dominated by bears, and the rebound in smaller cycles has yet to form a bullish cycle resonance. Additionally, with this weekend approaching, market liquidity may be affected, and the price action is expected to operate within a volatility range. If the small cycle rebound fails to effectively break through, it may trigger the continuation of the bearish trend at the daily level. Therefore, from a macro perspective, the market is still predominantly bearish.

Thursday Summary: This evening we preemptively set a short target near 86650 to look at 84000. In the early morning, we also reached our take-profit point as expected, capturing a space of 2500 points. Later in the evening, we went long near the low point of 84622, which also perfectly yielded 1700 points. During the day, our operations were quite frequent, and we had a very good profit space. Recently, the market conditions have been exceptionally favorable for trading. If one cannot even handle such simple market conditions, it’s time to reflect on one’s own issues.

From the current market observation, the Bitcoin market continues to show weakness, and the significant gains during the day have been completely retraced, with a further downward trend expected. From the hourly analysis, the Bollinger Bands show a parallel contraction state, with a brief test of the upper resistance followed by a rapid decline with consecutive bearish candles, breaking below the middle band. Although the bearish volume was briefly interrupted, the overall downtrend is difficult to change. Our midnight layout maintains a bearish stance.

Bitcoin can be shorted at 85000-85300, with a target near 80000

Ethereum can be shorted at 2330-2350, with a target near 2250

#币安HODLer空投SHELL #美国加征关税 #Bybit发布黑客取证报告

The daily structure shows a bottoming trend of three consecutive big negative K-lines. The market further drops, the previous support level turns into resistance, the downward channel is fully opened, the rebound is weak, and there is a daily decline of more than 6,000 points. The bears have completely controlled the rhythm, and the lows are expected to continue to fall. The four-hour line shows that the market is in a weak pattern of step-down, and the Bollinger Bands' downward channel continues. The current Bollinger Bands' restrictive effect on the K-line is weakened, forming a bottomless bottom, the upper pressure gradually shrinks, and the top and bottom conversion pattern is formed. The short continuation is obvious, and the white market volatility may be limited, but it does not affect the high-level short strategy. Pie can be shorted in the 85000-85500 range, with a target near 80000; ether can be shorted in the 2370-2400 range, with a target near 2200. #Bybit发布黑客取证报告 #币安Alpha上新 #比特币价格走势分析

Here are the latest Ethereum ETF market dynamics:

- Performance of some ETF stock prices: On February 26, the closing price of 21Shares Core Ethereum ETF (CETH) was $11.67, down $0.78 from the previous trading day, a drop of 6.27%. The highest price of the day was $12.27 and the lowest price was $11.275, with a trading volume of 372,300 and a turnover of $4.34 million.

- Overall capital inflow: According to data from the Coinglass website on February 19, 2025, the total transaction volume of the 9 listed Ethereum spot ETFs exceeded $355 million, with a total market value of $9.879 billion and an asset management scale of $10.172 billion. From February 11 to February 19, capital inflows were concentrated in the ETF products of Blackrock and Fidelity, with ETHA (Blackrock) receiving $24.6 million (9,121 ETH) and FETH (Fidelity) receiving $45.4 million (16,906.32 ETH).

- Technical analysis: According to Investing.com data on February 26, Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHE) technical analysis shows a strong sell signal. The RSI (14) value is 38.101, showing a sell signal; MACD (12, 26) is -0.52, also showing a sell signal. #Bybit发布黑客取证报告 #币安Alpha上新 #比特币价格走势分析

The future trend of Bitcoin: the long-short game and future prospects in the fog

Since its birth, Bitcoin has made waves in the global financial market with its unique decentralized characteristics and potential investment value. Its price trend is like a roller coaster, full of uncertainty, especially since 2025, the sharp fluctuations have caused all walks of life to think deeply about its future direction. As of February 2025, after experiencing previous high fluctuations, the price of Bitcoin showed a significant correction, falling below the $90,000 mark at one point, causing market panic.

Judging from historical price trends, Bitcoin prices are closely related to the halving cycle. The fourth halving in April 2024 will reduce the block reward to 3.125 BTC, slowing the growth rate of supply. Historical data shows that after the halvings in 2012 and 2016, Bitcoin saw significant increases in the following 12-18 months. After the halving in 2012, Bitcoin rose from US$650 to a high of US$20,000 in 2017; after the halving in 2016, it rose from US$9,000 to a peak of US$69,000 in 2021. This shows that the halving event has a significant long-term driving effect on prices. Judging from the current situation, the tightening effect on the supply side is gradually emerging, providing potential support for price increases.
#Bybit发布黑客取证报告 #币安Alpha上新 #比特币价格走势分析

The large pancake daily line dropped from the high of 92550 to the low of 86050 yesterday, ultimately closing around 88650. The key support below is around 87000; if this level is lost, the target will be down to the 84500 area, and a pullback to this level can be considered for a long position. The resistance above is at the 90000 mark; if broken, it is expected to rise towards 92000, and a rebound to this level can be considered for a short position. The MACD indicator shows an increase in bearish momentum, forming a death cross signal. On the four-hour level, the pressure above is around 89400; if broken, the target points to 91500, and a rebound to this level can be set up for a short position, while the MACD bearish momentum has weakened.

Here are some popular virtual currencies:

Bitcoin (BTC)

- Basic information: Released in 2009, it is the first successful decentralized digital currency.

- Technical features: Based on blockchain technology, it has the characteristics of immutability, decentralization and anonymity.

- Market position: It has long been the market value leader and is often called "digital gold". It is one of the most well-known virtual currencies on the market, with a current market value of approximately US$1.29 trillion.

Ethereum (ETH)

- Basic information: It was born in 2014 and is a smart contract platform.

- Technical features: It allows developers to build and run decentralized applications (DApps) on it, and its smart contract function provides unlimited possibilities for the development of blockchain technology.

- Market position: The market value is second only to Bitcoin. As the main token of the platform, Ethereum is an important tool for investors to participate in emerging financial models such as DeFi. The current market value is US$434.025 billion.

Tether (USDT)

- Basic information: Born in November 2014, it is a token based on the stable value currency US dollar (USD).

- Technical features: It maintains a 1:1 exchange ratio with the US dollar, and users can exchange it at any time, with high liquidity and stability.

- Market position: It is one of the most popular stablecoins on the market, with a current market value of US$85.285 billion, and is widely used in virtual currency transactions and payments.

Ripple (XRP)

- Basic information: Born on April 18, 2011, it is the base currency of the Ripple network.

- Technical features: Through unique distributed ledger technology and decentralized networks, it provides fast and low-cost cross-border payment solutions for global banks and financial institutions.

- Market position: It has been widely recognized worldwide, with a current market value of US$25.736 billion.

Dogecoin (DOGE)

- Basic information: Born on December 8, 2013, it was originally an entertainment digital currency.

- Technical features: no pre-mining, fair distribution, popular for its humorous, friendly image and strong community culture.

- Market position: The market value has reached 18.947 billion US dollars, showing a strong user base and community cohesion.

#币安LaunchpoolRED #比特币价格走势分析 #开通交易实盘认证

The main reasons for Bitcoin's sharp decline on February 25, 2025, are as follows:

Policy and Regulatory Factors

- Investment Bill Stalled: On February 24, lawmakers in South Dakota voted to postpone the HB 1202 bill, which would allow state-level investments in Bitcoin, until the 41st day of the state legislative session. Since the session does not exceed 40 days, the bill has effectively been killed. The Montana House of Representatives also voted against a bill on February 22 that could have made Bitcoin a state reserve asset, raising market doubts about Bitcoin as a 'national strategic asset' and undermining investor confidence.

- Regulatory Expectations Tighten: The EU's new sanctions against Russia have for the first time included cryptocurrency exchanges on the sanctions list, signaling a potential tightening of regulations, which has led investors to worry and sell off Bitcoin.

Market and Capital Factors

- Previous Uptrend Weak: Bitcoin has been consolidating in the range of $91,000 to $102,000 for about three months, lacking upward momentum, resulting in accumulated pressure for a correction in the market.

- Capital Outflow Pressure: Last week (February 17 to February 21), Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a net outflow of capital, totaling $553 million, and the withdrawal of funds has exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.

Safety and Trust Factors

- Hacking Incident: The well-known cryptocurrency exchange Bybit was hacked, resulting in the theft of over $1.4 billion in virtual currency assets. This incident has raised concerns about the security of centralized exchanges, undermining investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market.

Macroeconomic and Trade Factors

- Trade Tension Concerns: On February 21, U.S. President Trump stated that tariffs on Canada and Mexico would be imposed as scheduled, and he mentioned that a reciprocal tariff plan is being promoted. The market's concerns over a 'trade war' have intensified, leading to increased risk aversion and prompting investors to sell off risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Market Sentiment and Leverage Factors

- Cautious Market Sentiment: Matrixport released a chart indicating a high likelihood of further declines in Bitcoin, and this decline is occurring during a period of sluggish trading, with limited demand for buy-the-dip strategies, resulting in cautious market sentiment and investors following suit in selling off.

#币安LaunchpoolRED #开通交易实盘认证 #SBF时隔两年再发推

Today, we went long first and then short, and we also had a very good chance to win. In the morning, we prompted to go long near 95,500, and our stop-profit point was given to 96,500, and then it was given as expected, and we won accurately. Then we continued to short at high points, and the market also fell by nearly 2,000 points from the evening. We also frequently took advantage of it. As expected, we gave short orders in the late trading and won nearly 1,000 points of space. Despite this, we have achieved excellent results in the short term. Profit is profit, helmet is helmet, and Lao Chang only uses the actual increase in cabin space to prove it.

With the large-scale decline of short positions in the evening, the market finally broke the volatile situation. But from the overall market, the strength of this callback is not deep, and it is even a certain distance from the previous low. The subsequent pullback was also very rapid. At present, the price of the currency has returned to around 94,500. If we go short deeply here, the risk and return are not proportional. And from the hourly level, we can see that the price of the currency is gradually gaining a foothold, and there is still an expectation of further repair in the short term, so it is recommended to carry out the layout around low and long at midnight.

Bitcoin can be between 94300-94000, with a target of around 96000

Ether can be between 2640-2620, with a target of around 2700#Strategy增持比特币 #Infini遭攻击 #以太坊回滚争议

Writing insights from the cryptocurrency world can start from perspectives like investment experience, market understanding, and mindset adjustment, sharing one's own feelings and gains.

When I first entered the cryptocurrency world, I was attracted by stories of overnight wealth, with my mind filled with thoughts of financial freedom, crazily chasing and selling, resulting in a total loss. It was only later that I understood that investing is not gambling and should not be influenced by emotions. Now I have learned to analyze calmly, allocate funds reasonably, and no longer blindly follow trends, which slowly helped me establish a foothold in the cryptocurrency world.

The volatility of the cryptocurrency market is remarkable; prices can feel like a roller coaster, peaking one moment and plummeting the next. After experiencing several ups and downs, I deeply realized the importance of risk control. No matter how crazy the market gets, it is essential to keep the principal and set stop-loss lines, or a single mistake can lead to total loss.

The cryptocurrency world is filled with complex information, making it difficult to distinguish between truth and falsehood. Initially, I was gullible, believing various rumors and following so-called 'experts' in trading, which resulted in me getting burned. Now, I pay more attention to obtaining information from official channels and professional media, studying project white papers on my own, arming my mind with rationality and knowledge, and not easily swayed by others' statements. #bybit被盗 #钱包安全 #币安上线KAITO

After experiencing Black Friday, the market has gradually calmed down. Today's market is similar to previous weekends, primarily characterized by sideways adjustment. Yesterday, Bitcoin attempted to break through the 100,000 mark but faced resistance, subsequently plunging under pressure to wash out positions, dropping to as low as around 94,800. It has since rebounded, gaining 2,000 points today. 97,000 will be a watershed in the short term, so next week's opening will be extremely critical. #bybit被盗 #钱包安全 #币安上线KAITO

From the short-term hourly chart, the price of the currency is currently running around 98700. The short-term price continues to test upward. The current increase has exceeded 5000 points. The hourly MACD fast and slow lines are both running upward, and the bulls have an obvious advantage. At the daily level, there are signals that DEA is flattening and DIF is turning upward from the bottom, which shows signs of turning to the long side. RSI: The hourly RSI is near 70, close to overbought. The daily level has rebounded from 42 to 51, showing that the upward momentum has increased. EMA: 7EMA>30EMA, there is still a gap with the 120EMA trend. The short-term mid-line upward trend is good, especially the support of the short-term moving average. It can be seen that the bulls have the advantage in the trend. The focus will be on the 99000 line in the future. If there is no breakthrough and stabilization, it is expected that the market will go out of the correction. It is recommended to wait and see before stabilization. In the later stage, there will be opportunities to test the high position and ambush the short order. #币安HODLer空投KAITO #参与投票-PI该上线币安吗？ #你看好哪一个山寨币ETF将通过？

During the evening rally, the market also sold out in time to take a relatively large space. At present, the market has retreated again, with the lowest point near 2705 and 96700, and still has not fallen below the daily moving average support of 96600 and 2690. As long as the support is not broken, the market will continue to rise based on the support. After the hourly line went up and down, the big cake took the lead in rebounding, and the rebound will continue to rise in the evening. #币安HODLer空投KAITO #参与投票-PI该上线币安吗？ #你看好哪一个山寨币ETF将通过？

From the 12-hour trend observation, after several days of sideways movement, the bears have shown a sharp drop but without significant volume, and we are currently in a stage of recovery and adjustment. It is expected that the overall trend during the day will continue the upward adjustment after the recovery. In terms of the oscillation structure, the trend is still unclear, and the bears are still stubbornly resisting. The daily MA indicators show that Bitcoin and Ethereum have broken through the 7-day and 10-day moving averages of 96500 and 2700, respectively. Moving forward, it is necessary to continuously observe whether they can stabilize above these levels and gradually build long positions based on this support, while closely monitoring real-time changes in the market.

Bitcoin can be bought in the range of 96500-96300, with a target near 97800.

Ethereum can be bought in the range of 2700-2680, with a target near 9780.