$BTC $ETH #杰克逊霍尔会议 The market experienced a panic drop due to the rise in PPI. If Powell's remarks on Friday are not excessive, sentiment may recover and lead to a rebound, i.e., 'macroeconomic ailments require macroeconomic remedies.'

CME trader bets indicate that the market has already priced in rate cuts, depending on whether Powell goes with the flow. As the 'water-dispensing master,' he faces a dilemma:

- Supporting rate cuts: July non-farm payrolls were weak, and the job market is softening; the bond market has significantly priced in rate cuts, and not signaling could increase future communication costs.

- Opposing rate cuts: July PPI saw the largest increase in three years, with significant inflationary pressure from tariffs; political pressure is high, and it could easily be perceived as a loss of Federal Reserve independence.

Therefore, Powell is likely to continue playing Tai Chi, and his remarks could take one of three possible directions:

1. Release a rate cut signal (dovish): The bond market rallies, and U.S. stocks/Bitcoin experience a short-term rise.

2. Maintain strategic ambiguity (neutral to dovish): The market may be disappointed in the short term but will not experience a significant drop; a rate cut in September remains the baseline expectation.

3. Emphasize inflation risks (hawkish): The bond market may retract, and U.S. stocks/Bitcoin could see a quick adjustment.

Considering the environment, I lean towards the second path: acknowledging risks, maintaining ambiguity, emphasizing data dependence, and leaving the decision-making logic to the market, with multiple data sets available for reference before the September 18 meeting.