$ZEC teaches everyone a small arbitrage method for reference
The difference between the contract price and the spot price is 1.5U. Yesterday, the difference was around 7% to 8%, and today the difference is 5%! It seems that everyone is hedging!
Method: If you buy the spot now and short the contract at 1x, you can make a 5% profit if the contract price remains stable before Binance resumes withdrawals on April 17, but be sure to pay attention to the funding rate!
Both sides have completed the tariff negotiations, and next the United States will likely ask other countries to raise tariffs on China, and only then will the U.S. lower tariffs on them, thereby forming a trade system that excludes China.
On April 9, according to Antpool data, as Bitcoin continues to decline to its lowest point in 5 months, based on the current Bitcoin mining difficulty and a power cost of $0.08 per kWh, Avalon A1466, S19 XP Hyd., and Bitmain M50S++ mining machines have all reached the shutdown price. Meanwhile, Avalon A1466l and Bitmain M66 (280T) mining machines are approaching the shutdown price. $BTC
Anyone with elderly people at home knows that older adults are the least likely to easily give in, let alone admit defeat. The older a person gets, the more stubborn they become. The end result will definitely be a significant devaluation of the RMB, a skyrocketing unemployment rate, and the cross-strait issues reaching the highest probability in 76 years. The debts of the rogue and scoundrel from over 40 years ago should be paid. $BTC
The Hong Kong conference had the biggest impact on me.🫨 It is: The former big shots can actually return to the country! Could it be that our crypto policies are really going to be loosened❔🎬
Refer to the market recovery experience after the last tariff war:
During the tariff war in 2018, after a brief sharp decline, the US stock market quickly rebounded due to a combination of policy easing and the recovery of market sentiment. Data shows that,
in the first half of 2019, the S&P 500 index rebounded more than 20% from its low, bringing significant returns to long-term investors.
Historical experience indicates that although the market may be impacted by external factors such as trade frictions in the short term, high-quality companies with solid fundamentals often achieve a return to value after market sentiment recovers.$BTC
Let's talk about some painful facts --- On-chain, yield farming, and other basic activities are basically over.
If you don't believe it, just look at the recent fights and insults, almost all of them are in these fields. Because there is enough leisure time, have you seen any bloggers who have actually done secondary trading come out to criticize this or that?
They simply don't have time. In today's market, apart from secondary trading, there is basically no growth under the premise of no incremental changes. Only secondary trading allows for both offensive and defensive strategies; if it doesn't go up, you can still short it. Can PVP do that? Can yield farming do that? Can research and investment projects do that?
None of these can work. The obvious characteristic of these fields is that you can only go long. Once the market reaches a bottleneck, it will decline rapidly, and during the decline, no one can participate. Naturally, when people have free time, they can say whatever they want, like teaching others how to open an exchange and such operations. $BTC
Upon waking up, as expected, China announced reciprocal tariff increases.
According to statistics and releases from the General Administration of Customs of China, the total trade volume between China and the United States for the entire year of 2024 is estimated to be $688.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Among this, China's exports to the United States amount to $524.656 billion, an increase of 4.9%; China's imports from the United States amount to $163.624 billion, a decrease of 0.1%.
If we also consider re-exports through Hong Kong, Southeast Asia, Mexico, and Canada, China's actual export value to the US is estimated to exceed one trillion dollars.
The trade volume between China and the US is actually estimated to be over 5:1, and apart from agricultural products, most of the US exports to China are transportation equipment, computers and electronics, oil, natural gas, and services, which have a minimal impact on China and are more complementary.
It is no longer 20 or 30 years ago; a completely one-sided trade imbalance would have negligible impact on China's industry, even if tariffs with the US were reduced to zero.
Have you ever thought: why does China have to retaliate equally instead of lowering tariffs to allow Chinese goods easier access to the US?
This is not about killing 1,000 enemies while harming oneself by 800, but rather killing 800 enemies while harming oneself by 10,000.
It is clear that engaging in a loss-making deal is still necessary; why?
A visual understanding of the impact of U.S. tariff policy on global liquidity / In-depth interpretation Understanding the implementation of Trump's tariff policy, ten taxes, ten taxes, ten thousand taxes... 1. General tariff 10% Trump announced a 10% 'minimum baseline tariff' on trade partners, with higher tariffs imposed on certain trade partners. The baseline tariff takes effect from April 5. When this news was first announced, the market felt it was lower than previous expectations, showing optimism, with the three major U.S. stock indices and BTC all closing higher. However, when Trump revealed the image of reciprocal tariffs, the market crashed. Nasdaq futures plummeted directly by over 4%. Bitcoin fell from 88,500 to 82,200.
2. Announcement of reciprocal tariffs, up to 49% When Trump revealed this reciprocal tariff chart, the market crashed directly, much more explosively than everyone had previously anticipated. In simple terms, the U.S. unified the non-tariff barriers (including VAT and various others) of various countries, calculated the actual tariff levels on U.S. imports from these countries (different from the average most favored nation tariff rate), and used half of that as the additional tariff level (with tariffs below 10% set at a 10% baseline). Reciprocal tariffs take effect from April 9.
According to this calculation, reciprocal tariffs are imposed on about 185 countries, accounting for over 70% of U.S. total imports, far exceeding the previous expectation of 15 countries. The additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. on major countries generally apply to countries with large trade deficits with the U.S.
Basically, the larger the trade deficit, the higher the additional tariffs. After this new round of tariff increases, the East may have borne too much.
The total tariff on China: about 11% + additional 10% + additional 10% + additional 34% = about 64% (currently, 54% additional tariffs have been imposed, close to the 60% promoted before Trump took office). This is a heavy blow; the market had been overly optimistic, harboring beautiful hopes for Sino-U.S. negotiations, but now it has turned into a scattered mess, turning to ashes.
Tariffs on the European Union: an additional 20%, better than the previously expected 25%; Trump also issued a warning: 1) If you retaliate against me, I will continue to adjust the reciprocal tariff policy, it can go higher; you decide what to do; 2) If you back down and listen to me to make changes, then I can also adjust the reciprocal tariffs $BTC .
Conclusion: Negative for risk assets (crypto market/U.S. stocks), positive for safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries.
I often think of the night I first entered u, the starry sky was so brilliant, the light from my phone screen illuminated my greedy face, and I couldn't wait to transfer the money to the u merchant. At that time, I never believed I would lose completely. The greatest sadness in life is never failure, but rather the realization that comes too late. Now, the ones I feel most sorry for are still my family $BTC
Bitcoin ecological projects have all passed, from the craze of inscriptions to Corn and Babylon continuously being exploited, everyone's enthusiasm is high but they repeatedly incur losses. Although the story in this track is good, it has completely lost its profitability and has now become a game of capital, with all the retail investors being harvested. Belief is one thing, but making money is another. $BTC
At the beginning of the year, there was still over 23,000 dollars in the account, but now it's only April and there's only 1,800 dollars left. I had always advised others not to trade contracts but couldn't resist myself. Whenever there is 💰 in the account, I can't help but want to act. I look at it every day, feeling like a cat scratching my heart. Every day it's either opening long or short positions, often making me so frustrated I can't eat. Many people must have experienced this feeling! Going all in on memes is also a desperate gamble; I really want to hit it big like a big player, but it's mostly life and death, and I'm often left pouring it all in. Soon, the 💰 in my meme wallet was also running low, so I started spending the 💰 from the exchange, with the same result. The balance at the beginning of the year has shrunk tenfold! I always open long positions when trading contracts and just hold on, but many times there are sudden crashes that leave me puzzled. I still don't understand why a coin can suddenly crash so much without reason; no matter where you enter, it feels like a peak! It wasn't until yesterday, seeing the situation with #act, that I understood what the market is really like and who is making money! It made me realize how profound Hen Yi's statement about not liking to short is; if anyone still tells you there’s an altcoin season or a bull market, and not to worry about it coming back, saying the crypto world is an eternal bull market, I really want to jump up and slap them hard. The eternal bull market is only validated by Bitcoin!
The BSC chain is really super easy to get squeezed; as long as you dare to buy, you will get squeezed! All the money is earned by the squeezers. As long as the squeezing problem on the Binance chain is not resolved, the Binance chain will not be able to develop! Now the traffic relies entirely on cz's empowerment, which is fundamentally unsustainable. People have a sense of novelty towards things; when you eat too much of something good, you will get tired of it. When you hear too much from impressive people, the effect will also weaken. There will always come a day when it becomes useless! I hope @cz_binance @binancezh @heyibinance can think of a way to curb the incredibly rampant squeezers!
Every time I sell incorrectly, I fall into a blind correction mode. Many people sell a coin and then it rises, realizing later that they sold it wrong and rush to buy it back. But is the buying point at that moment really your best buying point?
If it were another coin, you definitely wouldn't choose to buy at this position, but just because it’s the coin you sold, you change your perspective.
Often, we can't forget the coins we've sold, fearing that if they rise, we’ll regret selling too early. If they fall, we feel relieved that we sold at the right time.
I think this is probably because people don’t like to see their failures, just like they don’t want to hear others speak ill of them. If we sell incorrectly, we should reflect on the reasons for the mistake and review it, rather than making blind remedies!