A visual understanding of the impact of U.S. tariff policy on global liquidity / In-depth interpretation

Understanding the implementation of Trump's tariff policy, ten taxes, ten taxes, ten thousand taxes...

1. General tariff 10%

Trump announced a 10% 'minimum baseline tariff' on trade partners,

with higher tariffs imposed on certain trade partners.

The baseline tariff takes effect from April 5.

When this news was first announced,

the market felt it was lower than previous expectations,

showing optimism, with the three major U.S. stock indices and BTC all closing higher.

However, when Trump revealed the image of reciprocal tariffs,

the market crashed.

Nasdaq futures plummeted directly by over 4%.

Bitcoin fell from 88,500 to 82,200.

2. Announcement of reciprocal tariffs, up to 49%

When Trump revealed this reciprocal tariff chart, the market crashed directly, much more explosively than everyone had previously anticipated.

In simple terms, the U.S. unified the non-tariff barriers (including VAT and various others) of various countries, calculated the actual tariff levels on U.S. imports from these countries (different from the average most favored nation tariff rate), and used half of that as the additional tariff level (with tariffs below 10% set at a 10% baseline).

Reciprocal tariffs take effect from April 9.

According to this calculation, reciprocal tariffs are imposed on about 185 countries, accounting for over 70% of U.S. total imports, far exceeding the previous expectation of 15 countries.

The additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. on major countries generally apply to countries with large trade deficits with the U.S.

Basically, the larger the trade deficit, the higher the additional tariffs. After this new round of tariff increases, the East may have borne too much.

The total tariff on China: about 11% + additional 10% + additional 10% + additional 34% = about 64% (currently, 54% additional tariffs have been imposed, close to the 60% promoted before Trump took office). This is a heavy blow; the market had been overly optimistic, harboring beautiful hopes for Sino-U.S. negotiations, but now it has turned into a scattered mess, turning to ashes.

Tariffs on the European Union: an additional 20%, better than the previously expected 25%;

Trump also issued a warning:

1) If you retaliate against me, I will continue to adjust the reciprocal tariff policy, it can go higher; you decide what to do;

2) If you back down and listen to me to make changes, then I can also adjust the reciprocal tariffs $BTC .

Conclusion: Negative for risk assets (crypto market/U.S. stocks), positive for safe-haven assets like gold and U.S. Treasuries.