比特队长

Daily update: This year’s Asian Cup + European Cup + America’s Cup + Olympic Games, sports currency will focus on it!

Bitcoin went straight to 36,000 today. It was really unexpected. It was driven by news and emotions. I was slapped in the face. I always thought it would not go up. This was indeed a misjudgment on my part. I also had a short order in my hand, and then I lost money. The loss was a bit big. Fortunately, my spot position is already full, and the spot profit is good. I currently have a floating profit of 10,000 points. I bought the bottom at 25100.

I told you before that I should pay attention to copycats. There is a wave of growth in copycats. This prediction is correct. I don’t know if you have eaten the meat of copycats. I have led people into several copycats in the past few days and the profits are pretty good. Ordi. rif, fet, ogn, xvg and so on.

I will update the specific market analysis later, I am too busy today. Pay attention to copycats, don’t count on Bitcoin, it has risen too much. You can also play in the cottage.

When I analyzed the Bitcoin market for everyone on October 19th, I reminded everyone to pay attention to a wave of altcoin prices. In recent days, many altcoins have been booming, which also verified that my views and predictions were correct. of.

I have been traveling recently and am exhausted from playing every day. Therefore, I don’t have the time or energy to update the article. I basically just share my opinions and predictions in the group before going to bed. It’s almost time to end the trip!

By the way, let’s talk about the market of Bitcoin. In the short term, the bullish momentum is still a bit strong. There is a high probability that it will continue to rise in the short term. However, I am personally very cautious about being bullish because this wave of rise is dominated by emotions. The last article also told you the reasons in detail. I personally think that although the bulls have not yet seen a particularly obvious decline, they are about to peak.

I don’t think this wave can rise very high. From a technical perspective, around 31,000 is the limit. But if there is an extreme situation, I don't rule out touching the previous high of 31800, but I don't want to see it through. The pressure above is not that great. Of course, there is a premise, unless sec really approves Grayscale, this extremely unlikely thing will happen. Then there is nothing we can do, and it is also a black swan event.

Many people asked me why Bitcoin rose so sharply today. Is it a bullish turn?

I checked the reason for today's rise. During the day (I am currently traveling and playing outside during the day), I actually roughly know it. I just further confirmed that the reason for the rise is that many people in the market have been gambling on sec in the past two days. Will agree to convert grayscale gbtc into spot ETF, so it has risen a lot today. The final news may be announced as early as early this morning, and as late as next Tuesday.

Let me talk about my views on this matter, and I bet on postponement. To give you my simplest and most intuitive basis for judgment, just look at the stock price reaction of Coinbase. I just took a look. Although it has increased by two points, it is far from enough to reflect the adoption of the big spot ETF. The eyebrows are all in the world of Huajie, and their intelligence gathering ability is absolutely incomparable to others. If there is really any trouble, Coinbase's stock price will definitely reflect it in advance. We will never wait until the news comes out.

Why can you tell whether Sec will pass the big spot ETF by looking at Coinbase's stock price? It's very simple. Basically, all current spot ETF applications entrust Coinbase as the entrusting party. If it is true that spot ETFs will be adopted, it will be a major benefit for Coinbase. How could the stock price not respond?

Of course, the above is my personal rational analysis and judgment. I still failed the game sec. This is a high probability event. Of course, I will place an order in the direction of high probability.

Bitcoin market analysis on 10.19:

(I have been traveling recently, so there are very few updates. I only have time to update when I go to the hotel at night)

1. Bitcoin’s views are basically the same as yesterday’s. You can take a closer look at yesterday’s views.

2. At present, Bitcoin is likely to form a shock range, and the range will fluctuate widely between 27,500 and 29,500. If we narrow the range and look at it, it is 27700-29300. Of course, this is not important. Just saying to you. Above, I emphasized that 29,500 has been a very strong pressure area for three days. You also saw yesterday that the market price went up to 29100 yesterday, and then immediately fell due to selling pressure.

3. In the short term, there is a high probability that Bitcoin will still fluctuate within the range I mentioned, but there is no big chance for the time being. The probability of a sudden rise or fall is almost zero, except for black swans.

4. In the middle line, I still maintain yesterday’s view. I will slowly start to turn short since I have been calling bullish in September. Of course, this change will have a process and will not happen overnight. For example, it may be forced later. Waves and voids and similar situations. This is all normal. It is possible to place empty orders in batches on rallies.

5. Short-term, currently, in the short term, it is basically difficult to break 27500. The probability of breaking is very small, 10%? So the overall summary recently is that it is a shock.

6. Pay attention to copycats recently. There should be a small wave of opportunities for copycats. There is a 70% probability that there will be a small rebound.

Let’s talk about Bitcoin market:
1. Yesterday, I predicted that Bitcoin’s short-term level would probably go up again, and it went up a bit today. The target price has also reached the point I predicted, near 29,000. It verified that my short-term view is correct✅

2. At present, the short-term level is likely to be around 28,500, and it is difficult to figure out a direction in the short term. Need to sharpen for now.

3. At the midline level, we currently tend to build the right shoulder and adopt a head and shoulders top pattern. Pay attention to the important point of 29500 to see if it can reach or stand firm. If you stand firm, your thinking may change. You have to stand firm.

Chess finally took off🛫, more than a month late [tears]

Bitcoin exploded just now, and the price went straight to 30,700, an increase of 11% in just ten minutes. The entire market exploded with 180 million yuan, and then it immediately hit the market and returned to the original point. Many novice fans asked me just now, What happened was actually a very simple thing: it originated from a body called Bi Telegram, which sent a JIA message saying that SEC approved the Bitcoin spot ETF. Although the entire market was boiling, it was immediately pulled from 27800. 30700. Then a number of beauty companies, including BlackRock, came out to refute the rumors, saying that this was fake news, and then Bitcoin began to plummet. Back to square one. Just such a simple thing.

In fact, I posted an article in the afternoon, saying that this message was a JIA message, but due to unknown reasons, it was never successfully sent. You can see the time on the picture.

This wave must be a premeditated move by the main force to clear up leverage by sending out such messages. Just be careful when placing orders. I almost got cheated on the bus today because when I saw the big pull, I thought there must be important news. This kind of big pull would basically be driven by news. As a result, the whole network was saying that sec passed the BitTorrent. Coin spot ETF, fortunately I held back and did not chase the price higher. Because I really don’t believe that at this point in time, sec suddenly passed this Bitcoin spot ETF.

Bitcoin market analysis on 10.16:

Today, Bitcoin suddenly jumped a thousand points in one minute. I thought about it carefully and realized that 90% of the probability of this surge was driven by news. However, I read a lot of news, and the most likely one was grayscale. As for the news, the news about gbtc switching to spot ETF is currently circulating on the Internet, but I thought about it carefully and thought that the probability of this news is false news is high, and the probability of deliberately going up to sell short orders is high. The reason is actually very simple. The time is wrong. Grayscale belongs to a company of Beautiful Country, and sec is an organization of Beautiful Country. So today’s big break is at 1 pm Beijing time, midnight of Beautiful Country, and that company sent a message in the middle of the night. So I concluded that this news is fake news.

But to be on the safe side, wait until night, especially after the brow bone opens, that is, after Europe and the United States get up, to see their reaction. If there are indeed signs of fake news, it is not too late to go short, which is safer. Including the stock price of coinbase and see if there is any reaction. Generally speaking, based on my experience, fake news usually comes down as it goes up.

There is a gap in Bitcoin CME futures in the 27000-27300 range. Many people may not know what this means. Generally speaking, according to historical statistics, 80% of the CME gap will be filled within a week. So, be careful about filling this gap!

I found that there is magic in entering the currency circle. At first, I entered the circle to make money, but gradually it turned into just seeking to get back the capital, and then it became pure high-frequency trading, contracts, etc.

I often ask some fans, have you made money by following them? He said, no. I was very puzzled and asked him, isn’t my winning rate good? Why can it be a loss?

He said that I will make money by following you, but I will lose money by doing a lot of tricks, and I will lose money by high-frequency operations or contracts. So I asked him: Are you here to make money in the currency circle, or are you here for the pleasure of operations? High-frequency trading and contracts are very tiring. Why can't you reduce your money-losing operations or reduce some heavy contract operations?

So my advice is:

1. It’s easy to lose money if you play by yourself, so reduce your own operations.

2. If you lose money by playing with the contract, then play less or not play at all.

3. Wherever you can make money, refer to others.

4. Do a good job in position management and don’t think about it.

5. Strictly limit profits and losses, and try not to be trapped

6. Have your own trading system, other people’s information is only for reference, and you have to rely on your own ability to lose money.

Let’s talk to you about Bitcoin’s long-term 3-6 months and spot:

1. From November to December, there is still a high probability that Bitcoin will go to 20,000. If my judgment is not wrong, then this is basically the last opportunity for everyone to get on the spot. If the market gives this opportunity, you must get on the bus. Don't listen to what the Internet says about going to 12,000, 8,000, etc. Last year, so many negative situations did not go to this low. Think about the thunderstorm of ftx. ftx was also the world's top three exchanges at that time, and Bitcoin had only grown from that time. The lowest point hit 2000 points, 17600-15400. It is not what everyone imagined. How much will be smashed? Moreover, the situation at that time was also compounded by the fact that the Federal Reserve had been violently raising interest rates by 75 basis points.

Just imagine, what could be a bigger black swan than FTX, raising interest rates by 75 basis points, at least for now, there is no such thing, and you can’t play with the probability of a black swan when making orders.

I remember that on December 20 last year, I shouted to buy Bitcoin at the bottom at 16,500. At that time, the Internet also shouted 12,000 and 8,000. At that time, many people in the group also saw this and did not dare to buy the bottom. As a result, this wave of Mavericks was missed. This wave of Mavericks is done, and there is actually a lot of profit. Don’t be afraid of spot stocks, and there is no liquidation price. Don't always think about buying at the lowest point. Many people miss out like this.

For my own spot, I will not move for the time being. If it can really reach around 20,000, I will get on the currency standard. I actually hope it will plummet sharply. The harder it falls, the better. Spot prices are just temporarily enduring floating losses. But our currency standard can enter the market at a lower price.

There are four major visible benefits waiting for next year. Let me summarize them for you:

1. Halved
2. Bitcoin spot ETF
3. Cut interest rates.
4. Beautiful country election

Views on altcoins:

Then if my long-term prediction is indeed correct and the market falls to around 20,000, then the copycat market will be an excellent opportunity for layout. Those who want to build a copycat at that time must start planning.

The same is true for sports currency. If given the chance, sports currency can almost start its layout. For the layout of next year's European Cup, I am just telling you my big idea. I will tell you the details when the time comes.

The current short-to-long ratio in Bitcoin's 7-day cycle is a bit scary. It is very rare for Bitcoin to have such a deformed short-to-long ratio, with shorts far outnumbering longs. When did the market become so unanimous in its views, all unanimously bearish on Bitcoin?

Gold and silver have surged, crude oil has surged, and U.S. stocks have plummeted. Bitcoin has not responded yet, but it has already fallen in the past few days. I don’t think the Israeli-Palestinian thing is going well, and it should be developing in a bad direction, because the market trend precedes the news. There may be news that we don’t know about, and Huajie has already learned about it in advance. This can be seen from the sharp rise in gold. Anyway, everyone must be careful!

Bitcoin market analysis on 10.11:
1. Bitcoin fell heavily this morning and fell below the key point of 27123 that I have been emphasizing to everyone. Although it is a short signal from a technical point of view, my point of view is that it cannot be bearish without thinking, because from a time point of view , including the technical indicators, there is nothing particularly wrong. The market is a bit complicated, and the recent trend is a bit complicated. Simply saying that it is bullish or bearish is irresponsible to you.

2. In the short term, Bitcoin is still going to fall, but I don’t think it will fall sharply. I have been thinking about whether to go short just now, and I decided not to go short. I have said that I don’t think it will fall sharply, but I want to go short. Risk-return is not proportional.

3. Since Bitcoin has fallen below the important mark of 27123, and it has fallen in heavy volume, there is a 70% probability that the target of 29000 mentioned before will not be reached in the market outlook. There is a 60% probability that the market outlook will rebound again, and if it is stronger, it may go The previous high was 28600, but there is an 80% probability that it will not break this point. If it goes weaker, it will rebound to 28,000 which would be good.

4. Because the current market trend of Bitcoin is complicated, some things require real-time follow-up views. I will also follow up in real time.

Fortunately, Bitcoin was near 27600 on Tuesday night, so everyone closed all their long orders. This long order was opened on Monday night. Otherwise, I would have stopped the loss today. On Tuesday night, I felt that the trend was wrong and I couldn’t keep up with the volume. If it rebounds and does not break the previous high, then there is danger. Fortunately, the trade was closed in time. Although there was no profit, at any rate, the capital was basically guaranteed or the trade was sold with a slight profit.

Have you found that the market in the past two months has been particularly difficult to trade? It keeps V-reversing, drawing doors, and V-reversing opening doors. No matter you open long or short, if you don’t understand the market and cannot understand the points, you will be particularly vulnerable to losses. Even if you do it right, if you don't stop the profit in time, you will spit out the profit, and even stop the loss. I have always said that it is almost over. The stage when the bear turns to the bull is the monkey market, jumping up and down. You must maintain a good attitude. The attitude is very, very, very important. Even if you go in the right direction, it will be useless without a good attitude!