Nephren Ruq Insania

2025.3.27

I found myself being a bit funny this week; the same plot has played out four times.

Let's not mention losing 1300u during the day on Monday.
On Monday night, I had 36u left, and after a few all-ins on event contracts, it reached 250u, but then I lost it all that night and was left with only 56u.
On Tuesday, I all-in with 56u a few times and reached 277u, but then lost it all again at night.
On Wednesday, I put in 40u, all-in a few times to reach 221u, but this morning I lost it all again after a few all-ins.
On Thursday morning, I put in another 40u, all-in a few times to get back to 253u.

What a ridiculous all-in, I understand now, all-ins won't have a good ending. I'm tired of this; I won't play for now.

2025.3.26

You can't always win by going all in, so you can't always go all in.
Yesterday, I made 277u with a few trades of 56u, and then I got overconfident and lost all of it in 5 counter-trend all-ins. I promised not to trade before or after watching the US stock market, but I violated trading discipline and opened overlapping positions. When making money, everything seems easy to say, but when losing money, only strict trading discipline can protect the principal.

Today, I entered with 40u and made it back up to 220u. I can go all in on the first few trades, but it's impossible to always win by going all in. So in the future, I will strictly roll over with 20u; without overlapping positions, I can't lose too much. After reaching 500u, I will use 30u, and after reaching 1000u, I will use 50u. This way, I can sustain.

Not much to say, reduce frequency, and be bold when the opportunity is right. I hope to return to 1000u this week.

2025.3.25
Yesterday I lost all the 1300u I earned last week and started over.
For event contracts, when following a trend, definitely do not go against the trend!!!

Yesterday, I kept looking bearish against the trend and lost all the 1300u I earned from 40u last week. I had been losing before, and then I went all in with 250u in three trades, and in the end, I returned to 1200u, only to lose everything in five trades. Opening too many positions while in the red can really get to you; when you are stressed, you operate subconsciously without rationality. At this point, it's best to stop and calm down. Sigh. Most of last week's profits were made from bearish bets, and I became habitually bearish without considering the overall trend.

Then, after calming down yesterday, I used the remaining 36u from my copy trading and made five winning trades, bringing it up to 250u. After the US stock market opened, I went all in with three trades but only won one, leaving me with just 56u. I went against the trend again; I won't trade around the US stock market's opening time anymore. I was strict about this last week, but this time I was careless. In the future, I will absolutely not go against the trend again. It's strange that after a loss, I feel like I can't calm down unless I've lost everything; I need to improve my emotional management. At least I've identified the problem and gained some experience.

Today, I followed the downward trend and successfully turned 56u into 277u. Trading with the trend is really that simple; it's hard to trade well when going against the trend, no matter how good the entry points are.

Let's just consider last week a waste, and I'm back on the path to recovery. I will reduce the frequency of my trades, follow the trend, and manage my emotions well. It's not the first time I’ve hit zero; last week I went from 40u to 1300u, so I believe this week I can also go from 56u to 1500u. As long as I don't get crushed and exit the circle, there will always be a day of financial freedom. I believe that.

There is no liquidity on weekends, it's best to play fewer event contracts. Sometimes the market doesn't move for minutes; if you want to play, it's better to increase the time frame or trade Ethereum. Today, I failed for the second time rolling my position with 30u, and then I lost control of my emotions and went all in, but fortunately, the result wasn't bad.

In the future, I need to do this less often. I will stick to rolling my position with a few tens of u, and after winning 4 times in a row and multiplying it tenfold, I will stop and restart. I feel this will be much more sustainable and will greatly reduce risks.

The target of 1000u has been successfully achieved, and I am taking a break this weekend. The returns from event contracts have finally turned positive; I was still down 990u on Monday, but I'm in great shape this week, so I'll keep it up next week.

The trend of Ethereum from 1 PM to 3 PM today is actually a textbook-style trend. There was one-minute-level support around 1969, and it bounced back immediately upon touching it. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (大饼) was actually slowly falling. After the first and second confirmations, it was possible to confidently intervene when it dropped to this position. A 10-minute bullish outlook has a high probability of success.

It has been tested about six or seven times. If you were hesitant to enter on the left side during the first or second attempts, you could go in directly after the third attempt. I entered twice, and for the third contact, I chose 30 minutes. Unfortunately, it fell in the last two minutes, which was unavoidable. In event contracts, there’s no guarantee of profit; the choice of 10 minutes was meant to be a casual approach. Then, on another contact, I went all in with 125u and opened 3 positions: one for 10 minutes and two for 30 minutes. For the last contact, I didn’t continue opening positions as the previous ones hadn’t reached the time yet.

Today, I made 7 out of 9 on Ethereum, earning about 400u. However, I was bearish on Bitcoin, which has been falling, resulting in a loss of close to 200u, so I ultimately made only 235u. It's about right, but I opened positions a bit too frequently, so I need to lower the frequency. I will take a break to calm down.

Event contracts also require a personal logic for opening positions to be profitable. This week, I only engaged in event contracts, starting from 40u on Monday and now at 900u, aiming to reach 1000u as soon as possible.

When making event contracts, sometimes you shouldn't blindly extend the time interval. For example, here the second to last position is very good, having validated the one-minute level support twice. It dropped and then immediately bounced back, securing profits in 10 minutes. If you extend it to 30 minutes, it stays above for the first 28 minutes, and then drops in the last two minutes. In this case, extending the time actually increases uncertainty and reduces the probability of winning.

Whether to do 10 minutes or 30 minutes sometimes depends on the situation; choosing the optimal one can increase the probability of winning; otherwise, it may backfire. I feel that one hour is too long; I generally only choose that when trading in the direction of the trend, which I do less often.

On Monday, I invested 40u to trade event contracts. After losing both trades, I invested another 40u and made it to 500u yesterday. Today, I took 30u to try rolling over; if I win four consecutive trades, I could earn around 280u. However, if I encounter a loss, I will lose 30u and pause trading. I have won three times in a row now, and the last trade was very lucky, coming in the last two minutes. I'm struggling with whether to roll into a fourth trade; if I do, I must find an excellent opportunity. Alternatively, I could use the 30u to roll as well.

Using the rolling method to trade event contracts is actually feasible. With a multiplier of 1.8 to the fourth power, it becomes 10.5. Winning four consecutive trades could yield a 9.5 times return. If I continue to roll with the same capital, every nine losses, if I achieve one four-game winning streak, I can break even. If the win rate is high enough and the opening frequency isn't too high, the rolling losses are controllable, and the returns are quite significant; the speed of capital growth is impressive. Of course, the premise is a sufficiently high win rate, like 75% or 80% in daily trades. Below that, I wouldn't recommend it. If losses of five or six consecutive trades happen often, then no matter how you manage your positions, it will be futile.

Finally, I want to say that any fancy position management is just supplementary; everything about event contracts hinges on the win rate.

With this order, I won't breach the event contract. Counting down 10 seconds, it was still around 1939; in the last 2 seconds, it was around 1937.3; then in the last second, it dropped to 1936.85, saving me from this order. A few seconds later, it immediately shot back up. Sometimes it's really just a coincidence. In 10 minutes, the price fluctuations are usually small, and when facing sideways fluctuations, it’s quite probable that the opening and closing prices are very close. If you go long, you will often encounter this. Binance can make a fortune with an expected payout advantage of 80%, and there's no need to manipulate the candlestick with large funds to take out this small amount.

2025.2.18
67u challenge 1000, the original has been paid, currently around 470u.

1.1 to the power of 7 is about 2, and if you make 10% every day, you can double it in a week.

There was no market on the weekend, so I didn’t do much. I made 50u from the event yesterday, and it’s about the same today.

Usually, event contracts are fixed at 10u, but today I made a lot of losses from the event contract against the trend. I was so annoyed by the loss. In the end, I opened two large orders to make back the profit. Today’s winning rate is less than 50%. I am too excited. I will calm down and stop opening for the time being. It is best to make a profit from the event contract based on the winning rate. If you lose, you can make up for it once, but if you lose, you will also double the loss, which will magnify the risk to an unacceptable level. If you lose consecutively, it is easy to get overwhelmed and give up on yourself when you only have a few hundred u of capital. That is basically the rhythm of losing everything. I have had this experience two or three times.

I have been looking at the Bollinger Bands to do event contracts in the past two days. Today, I lost money because I saw the Bollinger Bands break through the lower track to go up. It is not a big problem to do this when it is sideways and oscillating, but it is not suitable when it is trending. It is easy to lose money. It is still necessary to combine the trend pressure support to do it. The indicator can only be used as a reference.

The highest loss of the event contract in history is more than 500u. Recently, it has been positive almost every day. If there is a loss, it is only a small amount, and it is about to return to positive.

Today, there is a general decline. Two orders that have been pending for a long time were received, sol and slerf. I was trapped as soon as I copied them. The position is very small. I will hold it first and see whether to stop loss or hold it in the rebound situation. Sol does not seem to be a big problem. I will see it back to around 210 and see if I can make 100u.

I don’t know if Ethereum 2650 can hold up. Everyone says that Bitcoin will test 86 sooner or later. I don’t dare to copy it for the time being.

2025.2.14
Challenge to see if you can get from 67u to 1000u this time, the record can be checked.

The highest loss in history is 3300u, and the current loss is about 3000u. I am learning with a small amount of funds. I am a pure contract player. Generally speaking, I only do big cake and ether, and occasionally do bnb and sol. I lost a lot in the cottage before, and I will no longer do cottage in the future. I have high leverage and low positions (generally 100 times leverage and 5% position) and low compound interest. I am not a full-time player.

I deposited 500 yuan on February 4, about 67u, and sold the principal after it tripled on February 9 (you must sell the principal after doubling, which has a very positive impact on your mentality). Every time I deposit 100u and double or triple it, I will lose all my money. This time I learned to be smart and sold the principal first.

Currently, the balance is 400u, and the doubling goal this week has been achieved. The long-term continuous goal is to double it every week.

Recently, I am mainly doing event contracts, with a fixed 10u per order and profit from the winning rate. I am still looking for a trading system. When I reach 1,000 orders, if the profit is good, I will share it.

I will share it from time to time in the future, usually once a week. Let's learn together and get rich together.

Very useful

Things you can learn in the cryptocurrency market but often forget:
Don't fomo, don't blindly open positions when you can't stand being in cash.
Although you may become cautious after being stuck a few times, small profits will often be overlooked again.

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