2025.2.18

67u challenge 1000, the original has been paid, currently around 470u.

1.1 to the power of 7 is about 2, and if you make 10% every day, you can double it in a week.

There was no market on the weekend, so I didn’t do much. I made 50u from the event yesterday, and it’s about the same today.

Usually, event contracts are fixed at 10u, but today I made a lot of losses from the event contract against the trend. I was so annoyed by the loss. In the end, I opened two large orders to make back the profit. Today’s winning rate is less than 50%. I am too excited. I will calm down and stop opening for the time being. It is best to make a profit from the event contract based on the winning rate. If you lose, you can make up for it once, but if you lose, you will also double the loss, which will magnify the risk to an unacceptable level. If you lose consecutively, it is easy to get overwhelmed and give up on yourself when you only have a few hundred u of capital. That is basically the rhythm of losing everything. I have had this experience two or three times.

I have been looking at the Bollinger Bands to do event contracts in the past two days. Today, I lost money because I saw the Bollinger Bands break through the lower track to go up. It is not a big problem to do this when it is sideways and oscillating, but it is not suitable when it is trending. It is easy to lose money. It is still necessary to combine the trend pressure support to do it. The indicator can only be used as a reference.

The highest loss of the event contract in history is more than 500u. Recently, it has been positive almost every day. If there is a loss, it is only a small amount, and it is about to return to positive.

Today, there is a general decline. Two orders that have been pending for a long time were received, sol and slerf. I was trapped as soon as I copied them. The position is very small. I will hold it first and see whether to stop loss or hold it in the rebound situation. Sol does not seem to be a big problem. I will see it back to around 210 and see if I can make 100u.

I don’t know if Ethereum 2650 can hold up. Everyone says that Bitcoin will test 86 sooner or later. I don’t dare to copy it for the time being.