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#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC $BTC
【April 30 - May 1 US-Japan Macroeconomic Outlook】GDP and Core PCE Approaching, Bank of Japan Decision, BTC May Experience Significant Volatility

This week, the US and Japan will announce key macroeconomic data and policy decisions, and BTC and risk assets may enter a period of significant volatility.

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1. Key Data and Events

United States (April 30, 20:30 Beijing Time)
• US First Quarter Labor Cost Index Quarterly Rate
• Previous Value: +0.90%
• Expected: +0.90%
• US First Quarter Actual GDP Annualized Quarterly Rate Initial Value
• Previous Value: +2.40%
• Expected: +0.40%
• US First Quarter Core PCE Price Index Annualized Quarterly Rate Initial Value
• Previous Value: +2.60%
• Expected: +3.20%

【Interpretation】Slowing GDP is favorable for BTC, but if Core PCE rises, it may lead to short-term shocks.

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Japan (May 1)
• Bank of Japan Announces Interest Rate Decision and Economic Outlook
• Governor Kazuo Ueda Holds Monetary Policy Press Conference (14:30)

【Interpretation】If tightening signals are released (stronger yen), it is favorable for risk assets. If continued easing occurs, a stronger dollar may be unfavorable for BTC in the short term.

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2. BTC Market Structure Analysis

Current Data
• BTC Spot Price: $94,065
• Total Holdings: 84,600 BTC
• Large Holder Long-Short Position Ratio: Slightly Favoring Longs
• Large Holder Account Long-Short Participant Ratio: Basically Balanced
• 24-Hour Trading Volume: Over 80,000 BTC

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3. Trading Recommendations

Short-Term Operations:
• Control positions before 20:00 on April 30 to avoid significant fluctuations.
• Support Zone: $92,500-$93,000, can tentatively try light long positions on first touch.
• Resistance Zone: $95,500, consider adding to long positions after breaking and holding above.
• Strictly set stop-loss, keeping risk within 1%-2% of account balance.

Medium-Term Layout:
• If GDP drops significantly and Core PCE is moderate, BTC is expected to surge above $96,000.
• If data is bearish, wait for a pullback to confirm support in the $92,500-$91,500 range before considering long positions.

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【Summary】

US GDP and Core PCE, Bank of Japan Decision are key this week.
BTC holding structure is stable, but volatility window is opening.
It is recommended to trade lightly and follow the trend after confirming direction.

【BTC Operation Daily Report｜April 22, 2025】

1. Price Overview：
Current BTC price is 86,845 USDT, with an intraday decline of about -1.37%. The price is close to the lower Bollinger Band, facing short-term pressure, and a high-level oscillation downward structure is beginning to emerge.

2. Bull-Bear Game：
• Retail investor long-short account ratio is declining, indicating short-term market bearishness;
• Large holder positions show a continuous decline in long-short ratio, with a significant increase in short positions;
• RSI is approaching oversold territory, and there may be a technical rebound in the short term, but it remains in a weak structure.

（Chart: Bull-Bear Accounts & Position Ratio Continuous Decline）

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3. Capital Flow：
• In the last 4 hours, there was a net inflow of 1,134 BTC from main players, with a net inflow of 301 BTC from large orders;
• The cumulative net inflow over 5 days reached 1,644 BTC, indicating long-term capital still entering the market.
• However, current short-term momentum is weakening, and long positions are being pulled back gradually.

（Chart: Large Order Net Inflow Trends and Distribution）

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4. Operation Suggestions：
• Support levels to watch are in the range of 85,700–86,000; if it stabilizes, light positions can be taken for a short rebound;
• If it breaks below 85,000, caution is needed for downside risks;
• Pressure level of 88,000 should not be broken; heavy positions on the rise are not advisable.


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5. Trading Sentiment Analysis：
The market is short-term bearish but not extreme, and RSI has entered a technical repair area. If there are no macro negative shocks, the focus for the day can be on the changes in capital flow and rebound strength around the opening of US stocks.
$BTC

#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC 【BTC Long-Short Ratio Changes, Short-Term Directional Choice May Be Coming】
Price strongly rebounded, standing back at $85,000, with large buy orders concentrated above.
The proportion of long accounts in the 5-minute timeframe has rapidly surpassed, while the long-short ratio for large holders in the 4-hour timeframe has bottomed out and rebounded, suggesting that the main force may be building positions quickly.
Combined with the rise in Open Interest (OI) + increased trading volume, watch for breakthrough opportunities at the $86,100 resistance level.
If short positions increase again, be wary of the risk of false breakouts.

Time: 2025-04-21 04:28 (UTC+8)
Price: $85,097.8 (+0.94%)
1. Dramatic Changes in Long-Short Account Structure:
• In the 5-minute dimension, the proportion of long accounts suddenly rebounded, while the short proportion quickly declined, indicating a strong emotional reversal in the short term.
• In the 4-hour dimension, the long-short ratio of large holders has stopped falling and rebounded, suggesting that the main force is quickly adding positions from the bottom.
2. Total Contract Open Interest Decline and Recovery:
• Intraday OI dropped from 6.81B to 6.38B before quickly rising to 6.66B, along with a price increase, indicating new long positions entering the market.
3. Trading Data Supports Breakthrough Structure:
• 15-minute candlestick trading volume has significantly increased, with buy orders dominating over sell orders, and the buy-sell ratio reaching 65:35.
• BTC/USDT spot has also simultaneously broken through the short-term descending channel, signaling a clear rise in both price and volume.
4. Capital Flow:
• 4-hour capital flow data shows a net inflow of +256 BTC in buying, marking the first end of the 5-day net outflow trend of the main force, indicating a turning point.
• Large buy orders are concentrated in the $84,900 - $85,100 range, suspected to be a real accumulation area.

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Trading Opinion (Not Investment Advice):
If BTC holds above $85,000 in the short term, it is expected to test the resistance in the $86,100 – $86,500 region. If the long-short ratio continues to rebound, it is highly likely to initiate a new round of upward movement.

Risk Points: If OI declines + short positions reassert dominance, the rebound may be a false breakout.

$BTC

BROCCOLIF3B/USDT Perpetual Contract Analysis
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As of now, the price of $BROCCOLIF3B/USDT perpetual contract has skyrocketed to $0.081492, with a 24-hour increase of over 120%, peaking at $0.0975, becoming a focal point of market attention. However, behind the strong surge, technical and on-chain trading indicators also show warning signs that deserve attention.

From the price structure perspective, this token has been rising gently for several days and today experienced a explosive price increase, forming a typical 'accelerated upward' trend. The current price is significantly above the EMA(21) daily average, and the price-volume coordination is strong, indicating extremely strong short-term momentum. However, the RSI indicator shows that the market is in an excessively overbought state, with RSI(6) reaching 94.56, RSI(12) at 88.82, and RSI(24) at 79.39, indicating that the short-term gains have been severely overdrafted, and there is a risk of technical pullback.

From the contract data perspective, although the total trading volume and turnover have increased significantly, the number of open contracts (O.I.) has retreated from earlier highs, currently at 456M, indicating that some bulls have chosen to close positions at high levels. At the same time, the total contract value (O.I. NV) has also shown a noticeable decline, meaning that despite the price still being high, market funds are skeptical about the sustainability of further increases, and the enthusiasm of leveraged participants has cooled.

Considering the above factors, it can be judged that the current price surge is largely driven by sentiment, exhibiting typical characteristics of a meme-style explosive market. If the price cannot stabilize above $0.081 or effectively break through $0.0975 again, it will face extreme volatility or even a rapid pullback. In terms of operations, if positions have been held previously, it is advisable to consider taking partial profits or setting dynamic stop-losses at current high levels to avoid profit giving back; if positions have not been established yet, it is not recommended to blindly chase highs and one could wait for the price to pull back to the range of $0.061 to $0.065 to observe if new support forms.

Overall, BROCCOLIF3B is currently in a phase of extreme short-term excitement, with signs of slight capital withdrawal. It is advisable to remain cautious and avoid FOMO chasing higher prices.

$BROCCOLI714
$BTC

ETH Daily Analysis

1. Price Trend
• Current Price: Approximately $1,614, in a consolidation phase after recent rebounds.
• 24h High/Low: 1,632.29 / 1,584.01, indicating a relatively small fluctuation range and cautious market sentiment.
• Lowest Point: Recent low was $1,384, and the price has slightly rebounded.

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2. Moving Average System (EMA)
• EMA(21), EMA(55), EMA(120), EMA(200) are all in a bearish arrangement, indicating a weak medium to long-term trend.
• Daily Chart: Price is below all EMA moving averages, clearly in a weak zone.
• 4-Hour Chart: Price is attempting to rise above EMA(55) and EMA(21), showing some short-term support, but the resistance above is still strong (EMA200 at $1,778).

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3. Trading Volume and Open Interest (O.I.)
• O.I. (Open Interest) is about 1.5M, with little change, indicating that the current bullish and bearish forces have not yet decided on a direction.
• Trading volume has significantly increased after hitting the bottom, showing that funds are either entering at low levels or liquidating.

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4. MACD Indicator
• Daily Chart:
• DIF and DEA are still below the 0 axis, maintaining a weak pattern.
• The histogram is converging, showing initial signs of a golden cross, but the strength is not strong.
• 4-Hour Chart:
• MACD has golden crossed upwards, and the histogram is continuously expanding, indicating short-term rebound momentum.
• If it can break through EMA(120), it will further confirm a short-term strengthening.

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5. RSI Relative Strength Index
• Daily RSI: About 40, still in a weak range, not yet out of the oversold risk.
• 4-Hour RSI: About 52, returning to a neutral zone, indicating that it has moved away from extreme lows and is expected to continue oscillating upward.

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Summary (Analysis from Wyckoff Perspective)

The current market is still in the "potential bottom building phase," especially showing signs of accumulation near 1384, followed by an increase in volume with a rebound, which can be viewed as a testing + slight rebound phase in the short term. However, the larger trend remains downward; if EMA(120)/EMA(200) cannot be effectively broken, the rebound may be limited.

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Operational Suggestions (Short-Term Perspective)
• Neutral to Slightly Bullish Strategy: Consider buying low and selling high (mainly buying low), but strict stop-loss should be controlled around 1,580.
• If it breaks through 1,650 and stabilizes, it is expected to challenge the 1,725-1,780 range (EMA120/EMA200).
• If it falls below 1,580, be cautious of a second bottom test.

#ETH $ETH

SOL/USDT Wyckoff Perspective Structural Analysis Report

Market Phase Judgment: Re-accumulation Early Stage

The current SOL/USDT daily chart presents a typical Wyckoff bottom structure prototype. Since the high point of 295.83 at the beginning of the year, the price has rebounded near 95.26, forming initial support, followed by range consolidation and oscillation accumulation.
1. Previous Downtrend Phase (Markdown) Ends:
There was a clear selling pressure (S) at high levels, accompanied by a large bearish candle with high volume, MACD death cross, and the price quickly fell to the bottom between the end of March and the beginning of April, reaching a low of 95.26, with significantly increased trading volume, suspected of entering the selling climax zone.
2. Automatic Rebound AR and Secondary Test ST:
The rebound from the low of 95.26 forms AR (Automatic Rebound), and the current trend appears to be a secondary test (ST), with the price retracing to the lower edge of the range without making a new low, validating the support's effectiveness.
3. Accumulation Signs:
• The daily EMA(21) crosses above EMA(55), MACD golden cross forms, RSI steadily rises, indicating that the main force is gradually completing accumulation at low levels.
• Multiple “B” signals (possibly representing recognized buying points) have densely appeared in the 100-125 USD region, combined with trading volume distribution, which can be seen as the main force entering the market in batches.
• Overall volume is contracting but maintaining moderate upward movement, indicating that the market has entered a “silent accumulation” state and has not fully entered the rally phase.
4. Resistance Zone:
The upper 138-157 USD area is a previous significant supply zone (Last Point of Supply), and it is also the overlapping zone of EMA(55) and EMA(120). If there is a volume breakout above this zone in the future, it can be seen as a Sign of Strength (SOS), further validating the structure's completion.
5. Operational Suggestions:
• Currently in the mid-stage of structure building, not yet breaking through the supply zone, it is not advisable to chase high prices;
• Pay attention to whether a Spring (false breakdown) signal or secondary ST appears within the price retracement from 126 (EMA21) to 115;
• If there is a volume breakout above the 157-164 range and it stabilizes, it can be seen as completing the re-accumulation structure, allowing entry following the SOS, with target zones at 180-210 USD.

From April 13 to 19, 2023, the Solana ecosystem welcomed several advancements. Canada approved four institutions: Purpose, Evolve, CI, and 3iQ, to launch a Solana spot ETF with staking features on the Toronto Stock Exchange on April 16. Anticipation for Solana ETFs in the U.S. is rising, with Polymarket predicting an 81% chance of approval by the end of the year, influenced by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins' pro-crypto stance. In terms of network data, Solana saw over $120 million in cross-chain bridge funds in the past 30 days, with a DEX seven-day trading volume reaching $15.8 billion, exceeding 50% of Ethereum L2's total. The mainnet's privacy feature for confidential balances enhances privacy. In terms of price, SOL rose 27% this week, currently around $130, still about 60% lower than its January peak. Janover increased its holdings to 163,651 SOL (approximately $21.2 million), becoming one of the largest Solana corporate holders in the U.S.; SOL Strategies and Pudgy Penguins launched the PENGU verification node. Despite facing fluctuations in network fees and the impact of meme coin speculation, the Solana ecosystem continues to expand. 33831391338