ETH Daily Analysis
1. Price Trend
• Current Price: Approximately $1,614, in a consolidation phase after recent rebounds.
• 24h High/Low: 1,632.29 / 1,584.01, indicating a relatively small fluctuation range and cautious market sentiment.
• Lowest Point: Recent low was $1,384, and the price has slightly rebounded.
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2. Moving Average System (EMA)
• EMA(21), EMA(55), EMA(120), EMA(200) are all in a bearish arrangement, indicating a weak medium to long-term trend.
• Daily Chart: Price is below all EMA moving averages, clearly in a weak zone.
• 4-Hour Chart: Price is attempting to rise above EMA(55) and EMA(21), showing some short-term support, but the resistance above is still strong (EMA200 at $1,778).
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3. Trading Volume and Open Interest (O.I.)
• O.I. (Open Interest) is about 1.5M, with little change, indicating that the current bullish and bearish forces have not yet decided on a direction.
• Trading volume has significantly increased after hitting the bottom, showing that funds are either entering at low levels or liquidating.
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4. MACD Indicator
• Daily Chart:
• DIF and DEA are still below the 0 axis, maintaining a weak pattern.
• The histogram is converging, showing initial signs of a golden cross, but the strength is not strong.
• 4-Hour Chart:
• MACD has golden crossed upwards, and the histogram is continuously expanding, indicating short-term rebound momentum.
• If it can break through EMA(120), it will further confirm a short-term strengthening.
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5. RSI Relative Strength Index
• Daily RSI: About 40, still in a weak range, not yet out of the oversold risk.
• 4-Hour RSI: About 52, returning to a neutral zone, indicating that it has moved away from extreme lows and is expected to continue oscillating upward.
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Summary (Analysis from Wyckoff Perspective)
The current market is still in the "potential bottom building phase," especially showing signs of accumulation near 1384, followed by an increase in volume with a rebound, which can be viewed as a testing + slight rebound phase in the short term. However, the larger trend remains downward; if EMA(120)/EMA(200) cannot be effectively broken, the rebound may be limited.
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Operational Suggestions (Short-Term Perspective)
• Neutral to Slightly Bullish Strategy: Consider buying low and selling high (mainly buying low), but strict stop-loss should be controlled around 1,580.
• If it breaks through 1,650 and stabilizes, it is expected to challenge the 1,725-1,780 range (EMA120/EMA200).
• If it falls below 1,580, be cautious of a second bottom test.