NLAstudio
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Fear of the market
It is unlikely to move before non-farm payrolls tonight. The market direction will not be clear until next Monday, so it is better to look sideways today. Don’t play too exciting during the day. Pay attention to the size of every move. After all, every move we make is inseparable from risk. management If you don’t know much about risk management, then look for the worst result in everything. At least the result you will get will not be worse than expected. If you already have your own opinions about the future trend, then you should do it. Finish your work and then quietly wait for the market to give you an answer. I still remember someone leaving a message in August and telling me, "It's not difficult for the market. AI chips were out of stock last year and will be even more scarce this year. It's easy to make money from stocks." I don't know what this guy thinks now. The market is so simple. At least I have never heard any old fisherman tell me that the sea is very simple. I have also never heard any driver tell me that driving is very simple. Survivors who have been involved in a certain environment for a long time will always maintain an attitude of awe for the current environment. You and me. This should be the case
See original
The Mid-Autumn Festival is really a good holiday to talk about stocks with relatives and friends who usually like to post orders. If they 1. have a hard time = the bottom is reached 2. talk freely = they haven’t finished the killing yet 3. only talk about the past wins and not the recent losses = The bottom is near. Guess no one will take the initiative to talk to me about stocks during the Mid-Autumn Festival this year.
See original
well
No offense intended, just some self-reflection
Some real-life relatives and friends saw the channel and learned that I was going long.
Most of my reactions are
"Hey~~ You are buying. I think it will fall again."
"It's not good. What should I do if it falls after I buy it?"
"It's scary to fall like this. Let's see again."
These statements are all reasonable
Human hemp
Everyone wants to be better than anyone else
Everyone expects their children to be better than others
Everyone thinks their own pets are cuter and better behaved than other people’s pets
Everyone wants to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest
It’s just that I know very well that I am not capable of “buying at the lowest price”.
Who doesn’t want to? I really want to
But it really can't be done
Over the years of participating in the market
Knowing yourself is more valuable than knowing any teacher
Including recognizing one's own shortcomings and flaws
The market is a magic mirror
Everything feels great
If you look at it, you will find that you are ridiculously useless
Just because I know that according to my ability, I can’t buy the lowest price or sell the highest price.
So don’t yearn for it
Earn benefits within your ability
Compensation for losses beyond the scope of ability
Therefore, we should act within our capabilities.
Just do a relatively good behavior in a certain time period.
What does relatively good mean?
It's enough to be better than others
So what's the best way?
Do things differently than most people you see
people
Contentment is the most important thing
Being complacent
No offense intended, just some self-reflection
Some real-life relatives and friends saw the channel and learned that I was going long.
Most of my reactions are
"Hey~~ You are buying. I think it will fall again."
"It's not good. What should I do if it falls after I buy it?"
"It's scary to fall like this. Let's see again."
These statements are all reasonable
Human hemp
Everyone wants to be better than anyone else
Everyone expects their children to be better than others
Everyone thinks their own pets are cuter and better behaved than other people’s pets
Everyone wants to buy at the lowest and sell at the highest
It’s just that I know very well that I am not capable of “buying at the lowest price”.
Who doesn’t want to? I really want to
But it really can't be done
Over the years of participating in the market
Knowing yourself is more valuable than knowing any teacher
Including recognizing one's own shortcomings and flaws
The market is a magic mirror
Everything feels great
If you look at it, you will find that you are ridiculously useless
Just because I know that according to my ability, I can’t buy the lowest price or sell the highest price.
So don’t yearn for it
Earn benefits within your ability
Compensation for losses beyond the scope of ability
Therefore, we should act within our capabilities.
Just do a relatively good behavior in a certain time period.
What does relatively good mean?
It's enough to be better than others
So what's the best way?
Do things differently than most people you see
people
Contentment is the most important thing
Being complacent
See original
If faced with the market sentiment at this moment
You chose to enter the market and do too much
don't feel lonely
You are not alone
At least I and other friends from the NLA community will accompany you to receive the knife.
It’s time
Want to take action at a higher level
Too low to make a move
Human numbness 😆
If you think this article is wrong
Don't doubt
It must be you, believe in yourself
You chose to enter the market and do too much
don't feel lonely
You are not alone
At least I and other friends from the NLA community will accompany you to receive the knife.
It’s time
Want to take action at a higher level
Too low to make a move
Human numbness 😆
If you think this article is wrong
Don't doubt
It must be you, believe in yourself
See original
I don’t know if this kind of market is boring or exciting to you.
You should be able to see your colleagues, relatives and friends in a few days
Some people find the market conditions these days very exciting.
Maybe someone can't sleep well
Lost in work
Can't eat
Absent-minded
I always use my mobile phone to check the market at work
I couldn't sit still and kept going out to smoke.
Confirmed that sentence
Good money is boring and boring
Hard-to-earn money is exciting and fun
If you have already participated in the market
But the market these days is boring in your eyes
That means you have a high probability of success this round.
If you couldn't do this before
But now you are relaxed and happy
That means you've made some progress
Cheers
After doing it for a long time, the prices on Monday and Friday are about the same.
I've been thinking about it these days too
Why is the market so boring 🤝
You should be able to see your colleagues, relatives and friends in a few days
Some people find the market conditions these days very exciting.
Maybe someone can't sleep well
Lost in work
Can't eat
Absent-minded
I always use my mobile phone to check the market at work
I couldn't sit still and kept going out to smoke.
Confirmed that sentence
Good money is boring and boring
Hard-to-earn money is exciting and fun
If you have already participated in the market
But the market these days is boring in your eyes
That means you have a high probability of success this round.
If you couldn't do this before
But now you are relaxed and happy
That means you've made some progress
Cheers
After doing it for a long time, the prices on Monday and Friday are about the same.
I've been thinking about it these days too
Why is the market so boring 🤝
See original
Every time I want to restrain myself from messing around
I always think of some famous quotes from my predecessors
"The market is actually boring.
It's you who makes it exciting."
"Simple money is boring
Hard money is exciting and fun”
Share with everyone
I always think of some famous quotes from my predecessors
"The market is actually boring.
It's you who makes it exciting."
"Simple money is boring
Hard money is exciting and fun”
Share with everyone
See original
Want to buy some U.S. bond positions
Because it is calculated based on August’s cpi data
The next core PCE will be within 0.2 month-on-month.
This is a number the Fed would happily accept
Therefore, I still think there is little chance of continuing to raise interest rates in November to bring the overnight interest rate to 5.6%.
Even if interest rates are raised again in November, the 5.6% figure will be the top figure in this interest rate hike cycle.
Unless any major oil-producing country goes to war again
The orange frame is the range where bank fund managers have pushed to buy U.S. debt in the past three months.
What they say is roughly:
"Buy U.S. bonds now and let them run for 20 years to ensure you make a profit without losing any money."
Normal people will definitely rush in when they hear that they are guaranteed to make money without losing money.
Normal people would not consider that using this money to do other things in 20 years would have a better rate of return.
Because most people’s salary increases are not high
In short, bank managers hyped U.S. bonds very FOMO from June to September.
At that time, many people expected that the interest rate hike cycle was over.
In fact, the results will be different from what most people expect.
Just as the recession was expected early this year (including me)
Just as the rate hike is expected to end in the middle of this year
Because the economy is unpredictable
Once it is expected by most people, it will change
Because those who make predictions are themselves part of the economy
And objectively speaking
The certainty of buying U.S. bonds now is better than in the middle of the year
If you agree with the reasons why bank managers convince their clients to buy U.S. Treasuries
Now let's go in and search the body together.
No matter what, there are still a bunch of people supporting me
You can also have common topics with your classmates during the class reunion
Hey, I bought a U.S. bond quilt and cried.
Yeah, me too, how stupid are you?
Anyway, I respect you, my little brother.
Does not constitute investment advice
Pure record of thought process
Plz Do Your Own Research
Because it is calculated based on August’s cpi data
The next core PCE will be within 0.2 month-on-month.
This is a number the Fed would happily accept
Therefore, I still think there is little chance of continuing to raise interest rates in November to bring the overnight interest rate to 5.6%.
Even if interest rates are raised again in November, the 5.6% figure will be the top figure in this interest rate hike cycle.
Unless any major oil-producing country goes to war again
The orange frame is the range where bank fund managers have pushed to buy U.S. debt in the past three months.
What they say is roughly:
"Buy U.S. bonds now and let them run for 20 years to ensure you make a profit without losing any money."
Normal people will definitely rush in when they hear that they are guaranteed to make money without losing money.
Normal people would not consider that using this money to do other things in 20 years would have a better rate of return.
Because most people’s salary increases are not high
In short, bank managers hyped U.S. bonds very FOMO from June to September.
At that time, many people expected that the interest rate hike cycle was over.
In fact, the results will be different from what most people expect.
Just as the recession was expected early this year (including me)
Just as the rate hike is expected to end in the middle of this year
Because the economy is unpredictable
Once it is expected by most people, it will change
Because those who make predictions are themselves part of the economy
And objectively speaking
The certainty of buying U.S. bonds now is better than in the middle of the year
If you agree with the reasons why bank managers convince their clients to buy U.S. Treasuries
Now let's go in and search the body together.
No matter what, there are still a bunch of people supporting me
You can also have common topics with your classmates during the class reunion
Hey, I bought a U.S. bond quilt and cried.
Yeah, me too, how stupid are you?
Anyway, I respect you, my little brother.
Does not constitute investment advice
Pure record of thought process
Plz Do Your Own Research
See original
Us02y is something you should definitely pay attention to.
The move is too similar to taking out liquidity
Moreover, it is the band antenna after breaking through the high point in 2006.
It must have triggered a lot of people’s stop losses XD
After all, it is a historical high point
(The last time it was this high was 7% in April 2000)
We all know that the fomc resolution was decided a week before it was released
In other words, the Fomc resolution and SEP released on 9/21 were decided before the cpi was released last week.
This liquidity means what Treasury yield traders are pricing in
Could it be that someone else knew this earlier? Crying
If this antenna turns out to be a needle
That means the SEP shows that the last rate hike this year was in September, ending this rate hike cycle.
Let’s see 👀
If you like NLA’s article sharing, remember to like and subscribe ❤️
The move is too similar to taking out liquidity
Moreover, it is the band antenna after breaking through the high point in 2006.
It must have triggered a lot of people’s stop losses XD
After all, it is a historical high point
(The last time it was this high was 7% in April 2000)
We all know that the fomc resolution was decided a week before it was released
In other words, the Fomc resolution and SEP released on 9/21 were decided before the cpi was released last week.
This liquidity means what Treasury yield traders are pricing in
Could it be that someone else knew this earlier? Crying
If this antenna turns out to be a needle
That means the SEP shows that the last rate hike this year was in September, ending this rate hike cycle.
Let’s see 👀
If you like NLA’s article sharing, remember to like and subscribe ❤️
See original
U.S. generalized CPI in August was 0.6% month-on-month, expected to be 0.6%
Core cpi month-on-month 0.3 expected 0.2%
The data is really not very good
The bad thing is the core cpi ratio
It is definitely not the cpi3.7% and core cpi4.3% data reported by the mainstream media.
These are called year-on-year
The current market has lost a reason to move the market upward.
It's just a reason to lose
Regardless of long or short
There are thousands of reasons that can be applied on the field
We all know that the reasons for rise and fall can be explained slowly after getting out of the market first.
Since the macro data is not as good as expected,
Just be patient and see what storyline the market uses to explain it.
It’s not too late to do anything until the market becomes pessimistic or optimistic.
—————————
Good money is boring and boring
Hard-to-earn money is exciting and fun
Core cpi month-on-month 0.3 expected 0.2%
The data is really not very good
The bad thing is the core cpi ratio
It is definitely not the cpi3.7% and core cpi4.3% data reported by the mainstream media.
These are called year-on-year
The current market has lost a reason to move the market upward.
It's just a reason to lose
Regardless of long or short
There are thousands of reasons that can be applied on the field
We all know that the reasons for rise and fall can be explained slowly after getting out of the market first.
Since the macro data is not as good as expected,
Just be patient and see what storyline the market uses to explain it.
It’s not too late to do anything until the market becomes pessimistic or optimistic.
—————————
Good money is boring and boring
Hard-to-earn money is exciting and fun
See original
If the generalized cpi is lower than 0.6 month-on-month
For example 0.4, 0.5
With the core ratio of 0.2% month-on-month, the three-month annualized rate is 2.4%
The noise about the Fed raising interest rates in November will disappear.
And we're heading towards the official end of the rate hike cycle
And there is no chance that the generalized chain ratio is lower than 0.6
The current forecast of 0.6 is because oil prices increased a lot in August but are not included in the July month-on-month comparison.
Therefore, the oil price increase and inflation will be revised upward a lot in August.
It is believed that the possibility of the broad policy setting <span lies in the possibility that the second-hand car and housing inflation rates will decline more than expected.
Then after the slowdown of these two offsets the increase in oil prices, the probability of the broad chain ratio <span can be expected
We only discuss objective facts
Use hypothetical perspectives instead of making up story lines
The difference between the two is that the hypothetical angle will leave a way for you to make mistakes.
Welcome to subscribe and track NLA 😜
For example 0.4, 0.5
With the core ratio of 0.2% month-on-month, the three-month annualized rate is 2.4%
The noise about the Fed raising interest rates in November will disappear.
And we're heading towards the official end of the rate hike cycle
And there is no chance that the generalized chain ratio is lower than 0.6
The current forecast of 0.6 is because oil prices increased a lot in August but are not included in the July month-on-month comparison.
Therefore, the oil price increase and inflation will be revised upward a lot in August.
It is believed that the possibility of the broad policy setting <span lies in the possibility that the second-hand car and housing inflation rates will decline more than expected.
Then after the slowdown of these two offsets the increase in oil prices, the probability of the broad chain ratio <span can be expected
We only discuss objective facts
Use hypothetical perspectives instead of making up story lines
The difference between the two is that the hypothetical angle will leave a way for you to make mistakes.
Welcome to subscribe and track NLA 😜
Login to explore more contents