When will the major bull market for altcoins arrive!?
Let's first talk about the market! Currently, everyone is most concerned about what stage the market is at today, whether the altcoin season will come, and when it will come? In fact, at this point in the market, if we had to classify it, it should be gradually entering the mid-term. Don't be fooled by Bitcoin's significant rise; it has only completed the first phase goal of breaking through the valuation ceiling of the crypto market, creating a better lifting environment for other coins. Each bull market is generally divided into three stages; we are currently in the first stage, the second stage will involve rapid violent sell-offs and washouts, during which altcoins will generally follow suit and plummet but will stop falling before Bitcoin and quickly rebound. In this stage, this bull market may differ from previous ones; it used to be familiar patterns like 312, 519, but this time it may resemble the sharp washout pattern we saw a few days ago. This is because the demand for Bitcoin is too strong; not only are Wall Street investors interested, but several countries also plan to include it as part of their national strategic reserves. Therefore, a linear drop like 519 is generally unlikely unless a huge black swan event occurs. Since it's called a black swan, it is certainly difficult to predict and shouldn't be included in our considerations! Thus, during significant drops, don’t panic; just operate at the key points we advise. Bull markets are more about mindset; technicals are secondary! The third stage is the real bull frenzy, where altcoins will rise alongside Bitcoin and continue to surge for a while after Bitcoin peaks, then the bull market will end, and the dust will settle! If we analyze our current position, it's easy to see that we are at a node transitioning from the first stage to the second stage, indicating that the major movement is still ahead, and the future is very promising!
#Ai赛道 #RWA赛道 #depins Let’s talk about the big market first. Bitcoin has ended its unilateral rise since it continued to reach new highs of 73,777, and has undergone a correction of more than 13,000 dollars. The magnitude is still quite large. I know that many friends are quite panicked. ! Don’t panic. At present, this is just a normal retracement of an excessive rise. There are no pessimistic expectations about whether the market will fail or how deep the market will fall. The market made a second exploration on the 20th. The action has not broken the previous low, and the signs of stopping the decline are relatively obvious. It is expected that it will continue to hit new highs after the shock. It is estimated that the two positions it may reach are the 75620 and 80120 lines. Even from a very cautious point of view, as long as Bitcoin holds the dividing line of 61,000, we can all be optimistic about the upside. At this stage, there is no need to scare yourself, just hold on to the chips in your hand. In fact, looking at most of the altcoins, there are buy signals indicating the end of the adjustment. I personally judge that the performance of the altcoins in the next week will be relatively good, and the profit-making effect will be better.
As mentioned above, Ethereum's monthly chart pattern is beautiful, and after the adjustment is in place, it's not surprising that it performs better than Bitcoin. The probability of touching the previous high near 4100 is quite high, and I didn't expect it to be realized so quickly. I must say we do have some insights when analyzing the market; our grasp of the larger trend is usually quite accurate!
Returning to the current situation, due to the stimulus from Trump's signing of legislation allowing 401(K) investments in alternative assets (including cryptocurrencies), Bitcoin has not retraced adequately before being lifted up, and Ethereum has surged strongly, not providing very comfortable entry points for the market. However, with such heavyweight news, Bitcoin's performance is not strong enough, which poses a hidden danger for the future market development. Of course, one might say that funds have all gone to buy Ethereum, but this possibility is still relatively small. As stable funds, when entering the market, Bitcoin is definitely the preferred choice, as this is determined by the nature of the funds! In terms of chart patterns, Bitcoin has transformed the resistance level of 115000 into the first support after breaking through, with a resistance level around 118800. Ethereum has now reached a historical resistance level, and to break through, it must be a vigorous push. If a high is reached and then falls back, it will create a significant divergence, likely triggering a correction. It's better to be cautious at this position, and be sure to set stop-loss orders when entering!
Altcoins may see a wave of catch-up gains in the next couple of days due to Ethereum's recent surge and the weekend's impact. It is important to remind that at this position, altcoins should particularly pay attention to the principle of not being greedy. Before Ethereum stabilizes above 4100, the general rise of altcoins still requires patience!
The previous 50% is still stuck, let's push it a bit more. I just chased a wave of PEPE, set a 5% stop-loss and will leave it to fate. I am an impulsive retail investor.
In recent views, our judgment of the market has mainly been focused on retracements. Looking back today, it remains accurate. However, Bitcoin is slightly weaker than expected, having broken below the previous low of 114723 and showing signs of overselling, dropping to the upper bound of the breakout platform at 111920 from July 9 before rebounding. Ethereum follows, being weaker than Bitcoin.
Although the market is currently experiencing a slight rebound, since Bitcoin has already broken below the support level of 115000 and has not been able to recover, we can conclude that this upward trend has ended! The upcoming market adjustments will continue, but we do not expect a rapid decline; instead, it will be similar to the past few days, with a pattern of decline - rebound - further decline. The next area worth participating in is 108000-110000, where there is considerable support, and it is likely to see a decent rebound!
Looking at a larger cycle, it becomes clearer. The 3-day line shows a top divergence, the weekly line has the beginnings of a top divergence, and a single bearish candle engulfs two K-lines on the weekly chart, indicating that the adjustment will continue. Now looking at Ethereum, due to its push against the heavy resistance area above 3900, the increase was substantial, hence the adjustment is also rapid. After breaking below 3500 on the daily line and then recovering, its elasticity is stronger than Bitcoin; however, the weekly line shows a long bearish candle, which is worse than Bitcoin. Fortunately, the monthly line has closed strongly with a long bullish candle, and the MACD shows a golden cross above the water. After the adjustment is in place, it is normal for it to perform better than Bitcoin. The probability of reaching around the previous high near 4100 is quite high. Similarly, after the upcoming adjustment, the activity of altcoins should not be too poor, so pay more attention to Ethereum-related varieties! In the short term, watch for a pullback to the 3100-3200 area, which is a good entry point. If it reaches that level, feel free to make bold arrangements!
It's best to smash through 110, near 109, but I don't know exactly where, so at least we need to hit 110 here. Therefore, the Pepe I entered the market with the day before yesterday pulled back by 1 point and exited first. The other few currencies are stuck badly and can't be moved. This wave has an overall pullback of about 11%, it really hurts, I'm a big leek 😂
I plan to buy back Ethereum when it pulls back to 3100-3200. For now, I can only long the coins and then recover my capital faster.
The follow-up account has entered the market again, it's stable, you can consider Ethereum, don't bury me, dog dealer
$ETH $PEPE
橙子_研究院
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#大盘的下一步?
Brothers, the trading account has exited half of its positions, mainly selling Pepe, which had the most exposure and the least drawdown. The reason for exiting is that Bitcoin and Ethereum both need to pull back a bit before moving up, so we can only long the coins. Ethereum and Bitcoin have very good entry points, but they have diverged from the altcoins, which are extremely weak. This is the challenging aspect of the past few months.
Ethereum is expected to pull back near 3500, while Bitcoin is still looking at around 115000. At this position, we will consider buying back.
Currently, this entire small wave has seen an overall drawdown of about 5%-6%, it's tough to trade. Have the altcoins and the dog investors all gone to enjoy themselves!?
The pancake here has hit a new low, breaking through 114, corresponding to around 3500 for Ethereum, and it can go up from there, with a much higher risk-reward ratio. If the daily line effectively breaks below 113, then exit the position.
$ETH
橙子_研究院
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#大盘的下一步?
Brothers, the trading account has exited half of its positions, mainly selling Pepe, which had the most exposure and the least drawdown. The reason for exiting is that Bitcoin and Ethereum both need to pull back a bit before moving up, so we can only long the coins. Ethereum and Bitcoin have very good entry points, but they have diverged from the altcoins, which are extremely weak. This is the challenging aspect of the past few months.
Ethereum is expected to pull back near 3500, while Bitcoin is still looking at around 115000. At this position, we will consider buying back.
Currently, this entire small wave has seen an overall drawdown of about 5%-6%, it's tough to trade. Have the altcoins and the dog investors all gone to enjoy themselves!?
Brothers, the trading account has exited half of its positions, mainly selling Pepe, which had the most exposure and the least drawdown. The reason for exiting is that Bitcoin and Ethereum both need to pull back a bit before moving up, so we can only long the coins. Ethereum and Bitcoin have very good entry points, but they have diverged from the altcoins, which are extremely weak. This is the challenging aspect of the past few months.
Ethereum is expected to pull back near 3500, while Bitcoin is still looking at around 115000. At this position, we will consider buying back.
Currently, this entire small wave has seen an overall drawdown of about 5%-6%, it's tough to trade. Have the altcoins and the dog investors all gone to enjoy themselves!?
The big coin ultimately returned to the support level near 115,000 with a pin insertion, and then quickly rebounded, showing strong resilience, aligning with our initial predictions for the trend. As the market reached the 119,000 position, both the big coin and Ethereum began to stagnate, experiencing narrow fluctuations. Altcoins as a whole are relatively weak and can be easily affected by small declines in Ethereum, leading to significant downturns, with market confidence being fairly average.
Overall, the market appears somewhat sluggish; the current trend of the big coin is acceptable, but Ethereum is showing a double top divergence on the 4-hour chart, coupled with having entered the heavy pressure zone of 3940-4000 that has triggered alerts multiple times already, making the possibility of a pullback quite significant! Let's first analyze the pullback in two positions: we’ll see if the daily closing can hold above 3740. If it cannot hold, testing 3500 again will be highly probable! The big coin is similar; the previous low near 114,723 serves as an important support level, and if it fails to hold, the next target will be around 110,000!
On the news front, a large amount of Ethereum staking chips is starting to decompress back to exchanges, with expectations of selling pressure greatly increasing. On the 1st, China and the U.S. will continue negotiations regarding tariffs; one misstep could lead to more bearish news... The upcoming market may see further divergence, with the big coin being stronger and Ethereum weaker, but regardless, the larger market trend has not yet completed. After the adjustment of the big coin, the probability of new highs is not small, and the same goes for Ethereum. The process in between is bound to be quite tortuous, so everyone should prepare mentally!
The post made near the lowest point of the pancake at around 115000 had a basically good rhythm, and the predictions were not wrong. I still maintain the idea of Ethereum looking at 4k+. For now, just hold the chips in hand, the big one will come soon.
$ETH
橙子_研究院
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#加密市场回调
Self-radicalized, currently trapped... feeling uncomfortable like a mushroom, a big leek 😂
In the position repeatedly reminded in the community, conservative friends can consider adding back positions near 115000, it has reached that level. To be honest, it’s really hard to play, yesterday ETH hit the position of 3500, Bitcoin was strong, and altcoins followed the drop; today Bitcoin corrected downwards, ETH was strong, and altcoins followed the drop; it's really unbelievable...
However, for friends with less position, this level can be considered to add some positions. We still believe ETH will go above 4k, so the overall market is still worth anticipating.
Self-radicalized, currently trapped... feeling uncomfortable like a mushroom, a big leek 😂
In the position repeatedly reminded in the community, conservative friends can consider adding back positions near 115000, it has reached that level. To be honest, it’s really hard to play, yesterday ETH hit the position of 3500, Bitcoin was strong, and altcoins followed the drop; today Bitcoin corrected downwards, ETH was strong, and altcoins followed the drop; it's really unbelievable...
However, for friends with less position, this level can be considered to add some positions. We still believe ETH will go above 4k, so the overall market is still worth anticipating.
Recently, the market has been quite interesting with Bitcoin and Ethereum. Bitcoin started to adjust slowly, while Ethereum managed to catch up. Then Bitcoin went through strong fluctuations, and Ethereum accelerated but started to weaken slowly. After that, they both fell together, with Bitcoin trading sideways instead of dropping, while Ethereum accelerated its pullback, and altcoins were in chaos! When Ethereum was approaching 3900, we repeatedly reminded about the risk of pullbacks, and the community also informed to take some positions out in segments. Then when Ethereum was close to 3500, we notified to enter the market, and this segment is currently looking solid!
Regarding the upcoming trend, let's first talk about Bitcoin. Bitcoin is indeed stronger than expected, and the 115000 level has not dropped, strong fluctuations are a good thing, allowing other varieties more opportunities. From the chart, Bitcoin has not dropped several times when it should have, which increases the chances of rising, potentially testing the previous high around 112300. For our operations, the repeated range fluctuations of Bitcoin reduce its reference value, and we mainly need to focus on Ethereum. After Ethereum completes its pullback, it will test the resistance at 3750; the key is to observe the daily closing situation today. If it can stabilize above 3700 and reverse upwards, then it will go up. If it can't stabilize, we expect it to test the support strength at 3500 again.
Previously, we mentioned the expectations and levels for Bitcoin's rebound, which may absorb Ethereum and altcoins. This means that in the coming days, the main focus might switch back to Bitcoin. However, this doesn't matter; the altcoin market is still unfolding. Even if temporarily absorbed, funds will definitely flow back into altcoins later. Good spot varieties can be entered at good positions, and stop losses can be slightly widened, just try to hold on! If there's a major change in the market, we will notify everyone immediately!
$ETH
橙子_研究院
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#BNB创新高
BNB has reached a new high, is it really to celebrate the eighth anniversary? 🥳 It has given many people the opportunity to get rich, just not me... I'm just a retail investor 😂
For those looking to enter at this position, you can add some, but the stop-loss level must be increased, withstanding a major drawdown of at least 20%. High risk comes with high rewards. I have already entered a portion earlier, and now I can consider adding more.
For reference only
The copying account is stuck again, mmp, make it bounce back for me
BNB has reached a new high, is it really to celebrate the eighth anniversary? 🥳 It has given many people the opportunity to get rich, just not me... I'm just a retail investor 😂
For those looking to enter at this position, you can add some, but the stop-loss level must be increased, withstanding a major drawdown of at least 20%. High risk comes with high rewards. I have already entered a portion earlier, and now I can consider adding more.
For reference only
The copying account is stuck again, mmp, make it bounce back for me
The article from a few days ago can be reviewed thoroughly. Currently, we feel that the market is about to rise, so let's widen the stop-loss. We must endure short-term pullbacks unless key positions are broken. We expect this wave of market movement to last until the end of September, with Ethereum's potential range being 4200-4600. There's also a chance for new highs (consider holding 50% of your position without moving it for 2 months, while the remaining 50% can be adjusted based on the situation).
For sector cryptocurrencies, consider the following aspects: Major coins applying for ETF, stablecoin sector, SOL series, Ethereum-related sectors, AI sector, RWA sector.
Adding a coin: I think older DeFi projects can be a good place to stealthily invest. Funds coming in through stablecoins are likely to combine with DeFi to create value, and there may even be innovative developments in DEFI here.
The altcoin season has arrived, and the lending sector usually performs well because the market has a high demand for liquidity (this text refers to COMP, currently at $51, which can be stealthily invested in).
The spot trading account has been opened; everyone is welcome to follow.
To put it simply, the market is currently in a consolidation range around 11800 for Bitcoin. There are signs of stabilization on the 4-hour chart, but the daily chart's adjustment is not sufficient yet, leading to a disconnection between the smaller and larger timeframes, making the market appear somewhat complex. Generally, smaller timeframes follow larger ones, so we can assume that the adjustment (at least the consolidation) will continue, with the pullback level unchanged, still looking at around 115000. This will also be a dividing line for the short-term trend, so pay extra attention!
Ethereum continues to maintain its strength, moving towards the anticipated pressure level of 4000. The daily chart shows a steep trend and is in an acceleration phase, far from the moving averages. It is expected that once it enters the 3940-4000 range, the pressure will be substantial, and the probability of a pullback will increase significantly. However, one thing to note is that if we choose to trade within this range, we must keep a close eye on the 4000 level, as this critical resistance point, if easily breached and stabilized, indicates that the bulls are determined this time. We can only follow the trend, reclaim our positions, and continue to aim higher, possibly reaching 4150, or even testing historical highs! If Ethereum pulls back, the initial support to watch is around 3620. The interest in altcoins aligns with previous assessments, still gaining momentum, and there is overall potential worth looking forward to!
Bitcoin continues to fluctuate today, still within an adjustment cycle. However, the situation is not bad, and yesterday's point strategy remains effective. For now, we can temporarily focus more on Ethereum and altcoins. Ethereum has broken through the strong resistance zone of 3500-3560, and the next pressure point is around 4000! Yesterday, it was mentioned that there is still room for altcoins to rise overall, and the actual trend is indeed such. This wave of Ethereum is really impressive, accelerating quickly, rising even faster than expected. The short-term bullish structure is strong, and normally it shouldn't soften for a while. To determine whether the trend is exhausting, we must amplify it to at least the daily level of continuous divergence. Additionally, since tomorrow and the day after are the weekend, which typically has lower liquidity on Wall Street, the trend will likely be dominated by slight fluctuations. This leaves a relatively safe time window for altcoins to perform, and I hope the altcoins this weekend can dance freely like before during the altcoin market surge, continuing to rise together!