橙子_研究院

Let's first talk about the market! Currently, everyone is most concerned about what stage the market is at today, whether the altcoin season will come, and when it will come? In fact, at this point in the market, if we had to classify it, it should be gradually entering the mid-term. Don't be fooled by Bitcoin's significant rise; it has only completed the first phase goal of breaking through the valuation ceiling of the crypto market, creating a better lifting environment for other coins. Each bull market is generally divided into three stages; we are currently in the first stage, the second stage will involve rapid violent sell-offs and washouts, during which altcoins will generally follow suit and plummet but will stop falling before Bitcoin and quickly rebound. In this stage, this bull market may differ from previous ones; it used to be familiar patterns like 312, 519, but this time it may resemble the sharp washout pattern we saw a few days ago. This is because the demand for Bitcoin is too strong; not only are Wall Street investors interested, but several countries also plan to include it as part of their national strategic reserves. Therefore, a linear drop like 519 is generally unlikely unless a huge black swan event occurs. Since it's called a black swan, it is certainly difficult to predict and shouldn't be included in our considerations! Thus, during significant drops, don’t panic; just operate at the key points we advise. Bull markets are more about mindset; technicals are secondary! The third stage is the real bull frenzy, where altcoins will rise alongside Bitcoin and continue to surge for a while after Bitcoin peaks, then the bull market will end, and the dust will settle! If we analyze our current position, it's easy to see that we are at a node transitioning from the first stage to the second stage, indicating that the major movement is still ahead, and the future is very promising!

#Ai赛道 #RWA赛道 #depins
Let’s talk about the big market first. Bitcoin has ended its unilateral rise since it continued to reach new highs of 73,777, and has undergone a correction of more than 13,000 dollars. The magnitude is still quite large. I know that many friends are quite panicked. ! Don’t panic. At present, this is just a normal retracement of an excessive rise. There are no pessimistic expectations about whether the market will fail or how deep the market will fall. The market made a second exploration on the 20th. The action has not broken the previous low, and the signs of stopping the decline are relatively obvious. It is expected that it will continue to hit new highs after the shock. It is estimated that the two positions it may reach are the 75620 and 80120 lines. Even from a very cautious point of view, as long as Bitcoin holds the dividing line of 61,000, we can all be optimistic about the upside. At this stage, there is no need to scare yourself, just hold on to the chips in your hand. In fact, looking at most of the altcoins, there are buy signals indicating the end of the adjustment. I personally judge that the performance of the altcoins in the next week will be relatively good, and the profit-making effect will be better.

Let's first review the recent strategies and operational situation. On the 2nd, we clearly stated in the article that if Bitcoin breaks below the previous low of 103868 and enters the range of 101000-102000, it can be considered for bottom fishing. We also mentioned that Ethereum's daily level would follow Bitcoin's decline and even decline more than Bitcoin, but the long-term trend is relatively good, and after stopping the decline, it will show strong performance.

The subsequent market trend is basically consistent with our expectations. After two days of fluctuation, Bitcoin started to decline on the 5th, breaking through 10360 and dropping to a low of 100371, just slightly below our predicted position. Ethereum's decline exceeded that of Bitcoin by more than double, directly crashing to 2391, and altcoins also fell significantly! In terms of operations, after entering the 102 area, we aligned our actions and began to enter the market while informing the community to operate in sync. We made a second purchase close to the 100000 mark, basically buying at the lowest point of this round of pullback, making the entry position relatively perfect! Of course, there are regrets about this operation as well. Because we chose the entry timing based on Bitcoin's position, Ethereum's minor drop in the early stage and significant catch-up drop later affected the holding cost of our first batch of entry altcoins. However, the additional purchases around the 100000 mark lowered the price, so it's not too bad. The regrets in selling are more significant; considering Ethereum's weak performance during the rebound, we worried that a secondary drop would lead to a deeper pullback for altcoins, eating into profits, and we exited a bit early, resulting in thinner profits for this round. Although today Ethereum's catch-up aligns with our earlier expectation of strengthening after stopping the decline, the fact is that there are very few chips left. This is how trading works; gains and losses are intertwined. Caution helps us avoid large declines but can also lead to some profit losses. The future is long, and we will continue to optimize our trading model. We believe we will get better and better! After reviewing, we return to the market; Bitcoin's trend is stronger than our previous expectations and did not first execute a secondary drop but chose to rise first. Directly going up without sufficient pullback is actually not beneficial for the later market development. The reasoning is simple; just like throwing a punch, when you keep your arm tight, the punch you throw is more effective! Therefore, we do not rule out Bitcoin making new highs, but we are not optimistic about the space; it is very likely to be like the previous rounds, making new highs and then hitting a ceiling, starting a new round of adjustments! The technical side also supports this judgment. Unless Bitcoin breaks through the previous high and continues to rise, otherwise, once it peaks and falls back, a large divergence will appear, which is quite unfavorable for the bulls. Considering everything comprehensively and referencing previous trends, we believe it might be Bitcoin slightly making new highs, fluctuating, Ethereum catching up, altcoins surging, and then all coming down together in this scenario.