#大盘走势
In recent views, our judgment of the market has mainly been focused on retracements. Looking back today, it remains accurate. However, Bitcoin is slightly weaker than expected, having broken below the previous low of 114723 and showing signs of overselling, dropping to the upper bound of the breakout platform at 111920 from July 9 before rebounding. Ethereum follows, being weaker than Bitcoin.
Although the market is currently experiencing a slight rebound, since Bitcoin has already broken below the support level of 115000 and has not been able to recover, we can conclude that this upward trend has ended! The upcoming market adjustments will continue, but we do not expect a rapid decline; instead, it will be similar to the past few days, with a pattern of decline - rebound - further decline. The next area worth participating in is 108000-110000, where there is considerable support, and it is likely to see a decent rebound!
Looking at a larger cycle, it becomes clearer. The 3-day line shows a top divergence, the weekly line has the beginnings of a top divergence, and a single bearish candle engulfs two K-lines on the weekly chart, indicating that the adjustment will continue. Now looking at Ethereum, due to its push against the heavy resistance area above 3900, the increase was substantial, hence the adjustment is also rapid. After breaking below 3500 on the daily line and then recovering, its elasticity is stronger than Bitcoin; however, the weekly line shows a long bearish candle, which is worse than Bitcoin. Fortunately, the monthly line has closed strongly with a long bullish candle, and the MACD shows a golden cross above the water. After the adjustment is in place, it is normal for it to perform better than Bitcoin. The probability of reaching around the previous high near 4100 is quite high. Similarly, after the upcoming adjustment, the activity of altcoins should not be too poor, so pay more attention to Ethereum-related varieties! In the short term, watch for a pullback to the 3100-3200 area, which is a good entry point. If it reaches that level, feel free to make bold arrangements!
