交易侠小宇

Since Trump implemented import tariffs in April, the stock market has experienced a massive sell-off, Bitcoin has dropped by 10%, and Ethereum has plummeted by 20%, leading to a surge in global panic. In future forecasts, I do not believe there are safe-haven opportunities that could allow cryptocurrencies to rebound; in a situation where the global financial system is facing exhaustion, I also do not think the market has excess liquidity to help cryptocurrencies stop their decline. Unless there is a significant settlement of crypto assets during this trade crisis, it is clearly impossible to use these speculative crypto assets as a substitute for functional currency within the next decade. #美国加征关税

Top hunters possess three genes:

1. Deep Sea Thinker – adept at using solitude to penetrate market noise, naturally immune to crowd frenzy, capturing cognitive discrepancies like a shark sensing blood;

2. Pain Transformer – turns the trauma of liquidation into risk sensitivity, loss records are the nourishment for upgrading the system;

3. Rule Believer – possesses a disciple-like discipline and cleanliness, executing signals like AI, unaffected by the fluctuations of profit and loss.
These individuals often display contradictory traits:

- Introverted and taciturn yet extremely sensitive to human fluctuations
- Averse to risk yet willing to heavily invest in extreme valuation zones – rational like a machine yet retaining controllable gambling instincts

The essence of the market is a battlefield of human nature; survivors have all completed "cognitive mutations" – their brains have evolved to possess an anti-fragile decision-making loop, deeply binding dopamine secretion with system execution. When you can watch non-strategic opportunities soar while your heart rate remains steady, you know you were born for this battlefield. #美国加征关税

The Essence of Trading: The Art of Waiting
The market is like the deep sea, where top hunters are all 'waiting organisms'.
1. Timing Hunting - 90% of the time in stealth, just for a 10% high-odds signal, like a cheetah targeting the weakness of its prey for a fatal strike;
2. Noise Immunity - Refusing to participate in 80% of invalid fluctuations, focusing on the golden window within the cognitive radius;
3. Entropy Reduction Law - The period of being out of the market is actually cognitive energy storage, avoiding decision entropy increase due to frequent trading;
4. Compound Interest Foundation - Three years equal to one bull market's patience is far superior to a hundred times of risky speculation.
Waiting is not passive, but an active risk control:
- The stop-loss line is the moat of waiting
- The take-profit point is the sickle of waiting
- Position size is the conservation of energy in waiting
Twenty years of understanding: True windfall profits are not in the K-line, but in the ticking of the clock. When you can watch others celebrate while remaining as calm as an ancient well, and when non-systematic opportunities surge yet you remain as steady as a rock, you will know that waiting is the ultimate leverage in the world of trading. #掌握市场

BTC has broken below 80,000 twice recently, at 78,000 on February 28 and 76,000 on March 11. During the downward process, BTC is consciously testing the support level of 71,000 that I mentioned before (in the previous social media post). The lows are being lowered, and the weak trend continues. Does this mean a bear market is coming? Let me make a superficial inference.

The important driving force behind the rise of cryptocurrencies is regulation. Once the dominant player, the United States, opens up the legitimacy of cryptocurrencies, all cryptocurrencies, including BTC, will benefit. The benefits will come from increased trading channels and liquidity, and even hot money deployed in blockchain will increase. However, this regulation has not yet materialized in the U.S. Additionally: regarding BTC strategic reserves and the Bitcoin bill, I categorize them under regulatory policies. In this series of policy promotions, Trump is just a mouthpiece. Therefore, from the perspective of favorable U.S. policies, I have no energy to hope or expect. In other words: favorable policies landing means unfavorable outcomes.

Bitcoin is likely to drop to the 70,000 to 80,000 range in the coming weeks. Only when the tariff war ends and the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts will major cryptocurrencies return to their previous peak levels. Considering the impact of the decline in the stock prices of the seven major U.S. tech companies on market sentiment, if the U.S. government eases its strong stance in international trade, a rebound in U.S. stocks may drive a recovery in cryptocurrencies, but this is certainly not something that can be reversed in the short term. Therefore, a prediction of the 70,000 to 80,000 range is reasonable.

From a technical perspective, the daily chart forms a double top pattern and has broken below the neckline support at the end, which is indeed a long-term bearish structure. In defensive awareness, pay attention to the conversion of the 25-day moving average at 89,460. If the daily K-line entity breaks through 89,460, it is considered a bullish reversal. As for other medium- to short-term divergences, they will be digested in the 70,000 to 80,000 range. It is not advisable to trade frequently; if you want to realize the dream of wealth in the crypto world, you still need to continuously improve your trading plan. #掌握市场 #

Despite Bitcoin's recent drop of 30% from its historical high of $109,350, reaching a four-month low of $76,700 on March 11, four key indicators suggest that this round of adjustment may have ended.

First, the current adjustment is fundamentally different from the bear market in November 2021. During the 2021 bear market, Bitcoin plummeted 41% from $69,000 to $40,560 within 60 days, while the current adjustment is more similar to the 31.5% pullback seen in June 2024. A true bear market requires at least a 40% decline, which has not yet been reached.

Second, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen from 109.2 at the beginning of 2025 to 104, contrasting sharply with the dollar's strength during the bear market at the end of 2021. Analysts point out that Bitcoin typically exhibits an inverse correlation with the dollar index, and the current environment of a weakening dollar is favorable for stabilizing Bitcoin prices.

Third, the derivatives market shows healthy signs. Despite a 19% drop in price between March 2 and 11, the annualized premium for Bitcoin futures remains at 4.5%, well above the negative premium levels seen during the bear market in June 2022. Additionally, the funding rate for perpetual contracts is close to zero, indicating a balance in long and short leverage demand, with no excessive short-selling demand typical of a bear market.

Fourth, market concerns are primarily focused on the potential government shutdown in the U.S. on March 15 and the bubble risk in the artificial intelligence sector. Several publicly traded companies with market capitalizations exceeding $150 billion have significantly retraced from their highs, including Tesla (-54%), Nvidia (-34%), and TSMC (-26%). This risk sentiment has led to a short-term adjustment in Bitcoin.

Furthermore, early signs of a crisis in the U.S. real estate market may accelerate the flow of funds into scarce assets. Analysts believe that factors such as a weakening dollar, historical data indicating that a 30% price adjustment is insufficient to determine a bear market, resilience in the Bitcoin derivatives market, market volatility from government shutdown risks, and signs of a crisis in the real estate market will all support Bitcoin's return to the $90,000 level. Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded from its lows, and market participants are closely monitoring the progress of U.S. government debt ceiling negotiations, where there are divisions within the Republican Party over defense and immigration spending. If an agreement is reached, the risk asset market, including Bitcoin, may react positively.

Six Core Elements of the Trading System:

1. Trend Judgment: Identify the main market trend direction (upward/downward/sideways), trading with the trend increases the win rate, like sailing with the current;

2. Key Positioning: Identify support/resistance levels within the trend; these points of capital contention indicate potential market reversals or breakthroughs;

3. Signal Waiting: Patiently wait for clear entry signals (breakout/pullback/indicator resonance) at key levels; patience is a core ability;

4. Plan Formulation: Pre-plan entry points, stop-loss levels (core of risk control), profit targets, position ratios, and contingency plans;

5. Discipline Execution: Overcome emotional interference (fear/greed), strictly execute the established strategy to ensure trading consistency;

6. Review and Iterate: Regularly analyze trading records ◇ optimize entry signal selection, stop-loss settings, and capital management strategies, forming a positive cycle.

The essence of the system lies in reducing decision randomness through standardized processes and using mechanisms to constrain human weaknesses. Common misconceptions among beginners include reversing the order (e.g., finding signals before judging trends) and neglecting key elements (especially stop-loss settings and reviews). Professional traders convert probabilistic advantages into long-term profits through a complete closed-loop system. Each element requires specialized training and experience accumulation to ultimately form a personalized stable profit system.

The 7th Cryptocurrency Summit did not save crypto; it feels like tariffs are still the current barometer. Regarding tariffs, two points need to be clarified: first, will not reducing tariffs lead to inflation? Second, will not reducing tariffs lead to an economic downturn? Both of these points could pose a crisis for crypto. Rather than eagerly awaiting Trump to deliver, it is better to continue 🈳 ​​​#特朗普签署行政命令

The highest realm of financial trading is essentially a resonance between one's nature and the laws of the market. A true master must first comprehend the threefold realm:

1. Know the laws - Understand that the essence of the market is a battleground of probability and human nature. Behind price fluctuations lie the resonance of supply and demand logic, cyclical rotations, and collective psychology. Only by peeling away the superficial noise can one capture the core contradictions (such as the inertia of trend continuation and the reversal of emotional extremes).

2. Know oneself - Achieve a profound understanding of one's weaknesses: Greed leads one to chase prices and sell at losses, fear causes premature profit-taking, and arrogance results in overtrading. Experts refine their emotions into rules through repeated introspection, such as setting mechanical stop losses and limiting daily positions, using systems to combat human nature.

3. Unity of knowledge and action - When cognition and action become as natural as breathing, trading elevates from "deliberate action" to "effortless governance." Calmly sensing the market's pulse, one can buy low when others panic and exit clearly when the market is euphoric; this is called "an empty heart." Spiritual freedom is the prerequisite for financial freedom. The market acts as a mirror, reflecting the depth of one's practice: if trapped by gains and losses, one remains a slave to volatility; if viewed with equanimity, both rises and falls become nourishment. The true initiation lies not in technical perfection but in a mind that is unattached - decisive as an eagle in executing strategies, yet calm as water in waiting.

The path of trading is ultimately an inward practice. When you can calmly observe the tide at the center of the storm, you will touch the ultimate law of the coexistence of wealth and one's nature.

After a significant drop this week, the market direction for BTC has become increasingly unclear. I have summarized a few contributing factors:

1. The theft of Ethereum on Bybit highlights the potential risks and vulnerabilities of centralized exchanges (CEX). This incident could not only trigger a bank run but also induce stronger regulatory policies, leading to a panic-induced decline.

2. The promised favorable policies from Trump have yet to materialize, followed by the failure of three Bitcoin reserve bills in Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming, resulting in a decline caused by political risk.

3. The market circulation driven by meme frenzy, such as the popularity of TRUMP. Additionally, a series of meme coin scandals have triggered a crisis of trust in crypto, such as the LIBRA Milei incident. This decline is attributed to a lack of trust in crypto.

4. The continuous outflow of spot ETFs, with a net outflow reaching as high as 600 million dollars last week. This decline is due to liquidity exhaustion leading to pessimism.

5. Tariffs. I believe news about U.S. tariffs has been rampant, and I don’t need to elaborate further. This should be categorized as a panic decline brought about by macro-level factors.

I personally believe that BTC needs to test the critical support level at 71,000. In other words, the market's pullback will continue. Are you scared?

No need for ridiculous ranges, we aren't short on those few points, let's go in directly, now, at this moment, with ETH ​​​

Just like a meticulously directed movie, I can hardly believe this is a man-made plot, the timing of entries and exits is just too precise, thank you ETH ​​​#

Just add one more stroke, position 20%, no difficulty at all, waiting for #美国加征关税

Bitcoin is currently priced at 96400 and shorted, with a position of 20% and a target of 95300

The long strategy provided yesterday has finally seen some improvement after a night's turnover.

Since Trump took office, Bitcoin has not risen but rather fallen. The reason for this is that since last October, Trump's favorable conditions for short positions have been exhausted. After taking office, he has been busy with trade wars and consolidating power; therefore, the market's slow pace is normal in the absence of new announcements.

From a technical standpoint, the downward slope of the retracement bottom has slowed down, and there is even a slight reversal. By tracking the CCI indicator, it is clear that bullish sentiment is obviously rising. The short-term moving averages shown in the chart are also developing upward.

For today, it is feasible to continue going long to achieve the target of 99600. Good luck to everyone.

Although it was a road full of thorns, at least we arrived safely.

We know that inflation data will affect monetary policy, which in turn affects the financial market. For Bitcoin, it is considered an anti-inflation asset, and the US CPI and core CPI for January announced last night exceeded expectations, and Bitcoin has risen accordingly. CPI exceeded expectations, stubborn inflation and interest rate cut expectations have further slowed down. Against the backdrop of a strong dollar, there are also factors that are not conducive to the circulation of Bitcoin. The most critical technical aspect at the moment is whether the price of the currency can stabilize the daily 100-day moving average, so as to break the negative mentality of the market. Even in the face of the embarrassing situation of the currency price contraction and correction, everyone should be more patient. Public current price reminder: 96500 to 96100 area, go in more. Target 99600#加密市场反弹

Concerns over the trade war triggered by tariff threats have further pushed market risk aversion, with spot gold currently rising above 2900, and Bitcoin bouncing back to around 97800. For Bitcoin, the daily line has reached the support rebound of the Bollinger bottom band, and the TD indicator shows a buy signal at point 9. Using MA99 as a trend line to look at the market outlook, as long as it can maintain above the moving average, the bulls are still in play. As shown in the chart, the daily line also faces a double top threat, but the neck line is currently well protected, and the market may evolve into a high-level ascending flag shape. Thus, in the next few days of this week, making a long position is definitely advisable. #美国加征关税

Yesterday's strategy of shorting in the long position was confirmed. The first long position was entered at 97500 and exited at 98300; the second short position was entered at 98260 and exited at 95000. The main reason for the significant success of the short position is attributed to the Federal Reserve officials' release of the meeting minutes regarding interest rate expectations during the night, which conveyed the central idea that the U.S. economy is strong, inflation is stable, and interest rates will remain unchanged... Today, we will face the U.S. inflation data CPI, which is expected to provide another opportunity to suppress Bitcoin's rise. If that's the case, we will maintain at 95500 today and aim for 94100#比特币后市 .

Yesterday, the idea of ​​going long first and short later was to arrange the first long at 95650, and stop profit at 97000; the second short at 96900, stop loss at 97500; the third short at 97900, stop profit at 97000. The bulls never dared to try easily, because the upper trend line suppression was too obvious. As shown in the figure, after the triangle area converged at the end, it was able to break through in the morning this morning, which had a positive impact on the short-term market sentiment. After excluding the 123 rule, the short-term focus is still on the suppression and breakthrough of 100,000 lots. The short-term bull profit space is about 1,000 points. Looking up, there is a great risk of retracement. My suggestion is to go long first. If the market does not break through the interim high point, you can rest assured. The watershed is at MA99 position 99904#比特币后市

Trump will announce tariffs on other countries this week, which poses a significant challenge for the world, and global stock markets have already begun to decline. BTC has also weakened slightly, dropping to 94,700 this morning. From a technical structure perspective, the lows continue to decrease, and the short-term channel is maintaining a weak state, with no reversal signals appearing yet. The angle of the long-term trend line is widening, and the likelihood of a major trend reversal in the future will gradually decrease, making trend characterization very important. As for today, one can consider entering long with 15% at 95,400, while the main line can focus on the 96,600 level for incremental positions.