After a significant drop this week, the market direction for BTC has become increasingly unclear. I have summarized a few contributing factors:
1. The theft of Ethereum on Bybit highlights the potential risks and vulnerabilities of centralized exchanges (CEX). This incident could not only trigger a bank run but also induce stronger regulatory policies, leading to a panic-induced decline.
2. The promised favorable policies from Trump have yet to materialize, followed by the failure of three Bitcoin reserve bills in Montana, North Dakota, and Wyoming, resulting in a decline caused by political risk.
3. The market circulation driven by meme frenzy, such as the popularity of TRUMP. Additionally, a series of meme coin scandals have triggered a crisis of trust in crypto, such as the LIBRA Milei incident. This decline is attributed to a lack of trust in crypto.
4. The continuous outflow of spot ETFs, with a net outflow reaching as high as 600 million dollars last week. This decline is due to liquidity exhaustion leading to pessimism.
5. Tariffs. I believe news about U.S. tariffs has been rampant, and I don’t need to elaborate further. This should be categorized as a panic decline brought about by macro-level factors.
I personally believe that BTC needs to test the critical support level at 71,000. In other words, the market's pullback will continue. Are you scared?