《BTC still has a lot of room to go before it reaches its peak》
Welcome to the hiddenwhales community~ Disclaimer: The following content is only a sharing of personal subjective opinions and does not constitute any investment advice.
Community projects: quantitative trading research and development, AI BOT research and development The previous article made a relatively concise analysis of BTC's technical aspects. This article discusses two issues from a market perspective. 1: Has this round of BTC bull market ended? What data signals can be used to determine whether the correction has stopped?
2: Does insufficient liquidity mean the end of the bull market? Conclusion: Setting a new all-time high does not mean the end of BTC. The current bull market of BTC is far from over and is currently in a secondary correction within the main trend.
Currently, there are no signs of stopping, and no reversal signals are visible; the trend continues. However, pay attention to the USDT market share; this wave is ending, and there is still a good opportunity for a pullback to add positions.
This article is sponsored by Zscope Zscope: Enabling anyone to become their own crypto analyst.
BTC has once again reached an ATH. Like the ATH earlier this year, it is difficult to make technical judgments at historical highs because there are no references. How much space is left above can only be viewed from the perspective of on-chain indicators.
Question 1: Is the current market value of BTC severely overestimated? Conclusion: The bubble is not extreme enough to be called very extreme; without being very extreme, it cannot be said to be severely overestimated. If it is not severely overestimated, it cannot be said to have peaked; we must revert to the real value.
Seeing everyone on Twitter shouting long, without hesitation go long, the Solana123 rule has good empty positions, the target position remains 92. Waiting for a stacked overbought buff as an entry signal. The left short position can almost be entered 📉📉📉📉📉📉#XRP、SOL、ADA纳入美国战略储备?
BTC at the key support level FIB0.5, fair value gap, and diagonal demand line forms a support resonance with a K-line pattern pinbar. In the short term, a rebound is expected near 91300 at the upper channel and horizontal resistance, but it is still within a secondary trend (bearish) structure. The current level of 78000 is not considered a temporary bottom; I personally believe there will be another oscillation back and forth. The next wave of pullback should correspond to the March 19 Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with a risk of pausing interest rate cuts #BTC
The USDT market share is at a key resistance formed by the diagonal supply line, horizontal resistance, and fib0.618, showing a candlestick pattern pinbar, combined with an RSI overbought. Looking at a pullback in terms of USDT market share, all risk assets are rising 📈
In the short term, the price has failed to maintain a bearish trend, creating a new swing low, and the swing low is gradually rising to form a rising triangle structure. This structure looks to break through horizontal resistance, and the MACD has already crossed. The triple divergence in the RSI indicates a depletion of momentum. As long as the short-term structure is not broken, everything is fine. Therefore, the weekly chart tomorrow morning is likely to be safe. However, if we must go to 1580 tonight, what negative news is going to drive this 26% retracement? In summary, I gently added a position here with the previous low as the stop loss.
The closing status of this weekly ETH candle at 8 AM tomorrow is crucial. As long as the weekly closes above this convergence zone, it is safe. If it closes below 2080, well, I might as well place a defensive order at 1580 on the left side. #ETH
Inferences on Policy and Economic Aspects 🎯 The impact of policies on cryptocurrency in 2025 will be significant
Decision-making tendency: In Q1-Q2, if the market really experiences a liquidity crisis and a substantial correction occurs, it will be a good opportunity for positioning, especially for those assets that have applied for ETFs.
The primary focus for the decision-maker is to resolve domestic and foreign affairs in the United States, and only then will they address the crypto space. The decision-maker may have a long-term positive effect on mainstream cryptocurrencies, but before the policies are implemented, market sentiment may undergo a cooling period. For the overall industry, future regulatory easing will only target "mainstream assets," while numerous non-compliant tokens may face scrutiny pressure.
After the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2024, it may continue to pause for a while; Q1-Q2 may present liquidity risks. If the SLR exemption is implemented, it could free up $4 trillion in bank balance sheet space, but it may exacerbate inflation expectations. The decision-maker needs to create a controllable financial crisis before Q2 2025 (through debt ceiling negotiations or a surge in fiscal deficits driving up U.S. Treasury yields) to force the Federal Reserve to pivot.
Interest rates will remain at a high level (4%), which will lead to continued liquidity challenges for risk markets in 2025. We will only see a true resurgence of hot money in the market when interest rates genuinely decline.
ETH trend: main trend (long), secondary trend (oscillation), short-term trend (short) It is inferred that there will be two tests at 2080
Intervention signal: currently lacking, waiting for the BUFF superposition of the key position (2080-2280). 📌📌 Intermediate decision tendency: mainly low-long, buy on dips. Short-term decision tendency: main band, within the range of (2080-2280) to (2880-3040). $ETH
BTC Trend Main Trend (Bullish), Secondary Trend (Consolidation), Environment has started transitioning from a strong bullish phase to a cooling stage Signal Basis Weekly Signal: MACD death cross, RSI divergence, NUPL major divergence combined with minor divergence Daily Signal: After two divergences in MACD and RSI, price breaks below EMA55. Decision Bias 📌 Intermediate Decision Bias: Primary short position, target locations 85000, 72221
📌 Short-term Decision Bias: Primary wave segment, range 91000-99000. $BTC
BTC/ETH exchange rate is bullish with Bat support, RSI signal at key support, and a MACD golden cross can be formed on the right. Q1-Q2 is expected to be bearish on BTC. ETH is severely undervalued and has limited decline. It is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in the medium and long term. 📌 Decision-making tends to be long on ETH and ALT. $BTC $ETH
21.09 Zbot Abnormal Data Capture: The net inflow and outflow volume of ETH on exchanges shows a massive amount of ETH being transferred out of the market, indicating a potential decrease in selling pressure. This data suggests that after completing part of the acquisition actions, short sellers should guard against a price surge in the short term. #eth #ethereum
On-chain data is always difficult to intelligently capture. Zbot solves this problem, allowing us to use data more efficiently and conveniently. ETH on-chain data STH—NUPL December 20th at 20:25
Net unrealized profit and loss is an indicator that measures the asset status of the entire blockchain network. It determines whether the chips on the blockchain are in a profit or loss state by comparing unrealized profits and unrealized losses. Here, 'unrealized' refers to assets that have not yet been sold or traded, so these profits or losses are only on paper and have not been truly realized.
✨ Generally, the first occurrence of a cross-region pullback is considered an extreme case of NUPL, and Zbot's algorithm defines and captures this 'extreme' as a BUFF at the on-chain indicator level. This signal is one of the common bases for buying. #萨尔瓦多增持BTC