《BTC still has a lot of room to go before it reaches its peak》
Welcome to the hiddenwhales community~ Disclaimer: The following content is only a sharing of personal subjective opinions and does not constitute any investment advice.
Community projects: quantitative trading research and development, AI BOT research and development The previous article made a relatively concise analysis of BTC's technical aspects. This article discusses two issues from a market perspective. 1: Has this round of BTC bull market ended? What data signals can be used to determine whether the correction has stopped?
2: Does insufficient liquidity mean the end of the bull market? Conclusion: Setting a new all-time high does not mean the end of BTC. The current bull market of BTC is far from over and is currently in a secondary correction within the main trend.
Currently, there are no signs of stopping, and no reversal signals are visible; the trend continues. However, pay attention to the USDT market share; this wave is ending, and there is still a good opportunity for a pullback to add positions.
This article is sponsored by Zscope Zscope: Enabling anyone to become their own crypto analyst.
BTC has once again reached an ATH. Like the ATH earlier this year, it is difficult to make technical judgments at historical highs because there are no references. How much space is left above can only be viewed from the perspective of on-chain indicators.
Question 1: Is the current market value of BTC severely overestimated? Conclusion: The bubble is not extreme enough to be called very extreme; without being very extreme, it cannot be said to be severely overestimated. If it is not severely overestimated, it cannot be said to have peaked; we must revert to the real value.
I have never missed the market share of USDT. I often mention this data. It has become one of the bases for my decision-making. Figure 1 The current market share price trend, swinghigh continues to decrease, and swinglow forms horizontal support. Although the horizontal structure has not been broken, the oblique structure has been broken. It can be summarized as: breaking the demand line but rebounding without setting a new high, this is a trend reversal signal.
Figure 2 Detailed signal A clear engulfing signal with volume appears at the oblique supply line. Generally speaking, the K-line pattern that appears at the key position is extremely valuable for reference and is regarded as an intervention signal. Two buffs are also stacked, RSI overbought divergence + right side MACD dead cross filtering.
In the short term, the USDT market share callback will test the horizontal support again. In the medium term, the horizontal support breakthrough continues to go down, so the corresponding other risk targets are short-term bullish (monthly and weekly level) and medium-term bullish (half-year level). #美SEC加密圆桌会议
Jason秽土转生版
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Bearish
✨The USDT market share risk mentioned in the article during the significant rise on November 18 has now been fulfilled, hence the suggestion made in November that this wave would end with a good opportunity for replenishment. 🎯The current USDT market share looks very pessimistic. It is inferred: the demand line has a false breakout, and the mid-term trend shows a violent rebound, with the rebound magnitude > Q1-Q3 of 2024, 🗒️ which means that the risk assets will have a greater correction magnitude in Q1-Q2 of 2025 compared to Q1-Q3 of last year .$BTC $ETH $SOL
It turns out 😆 that as long as you are being scolded, it means you are on the opposite side of the 'chives', and standing opposite to the 'chives' guarantees a win! If your decision-making tendency aligns with the comments in the discussion, then there will be a problem and you need to reflect! #美国加征关税
Jason秽土转生版
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Bearish
Seeing everyone on Twitter shouting long, without hesitation go long, the Solana123 rule has good empty positions, the target position remains 92. Waiting for a stacked overbought buff as an entry signal. The left short position can almost be entered 📉📉📉📉📉📉#XRP、SOL、ADA纳入美国战略储备?
The thing I'm most worried about has come, haha, anyway, 1580 is a dangerous level to go down from here. #美国加密战略储备
Jason秽土转生版
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The closing status of this weekly ETH candle at 8 AM tomorrow is crucial. As long as the weekly closes above this convergence zone, it is safe. If it closes below 2080, well, I might as well place a defensive order at 1580 on the left side. #ETH
Review the basis for the correction at 2190 the day before yesterday. MACD golden cross, RSI triple divergence plus an ascending triangle structure to see a breakthrough, compare the two pictures. Currently, it has come to the convergence zone composed of FIB618 and the oblique horizontal direction. As usual, this is a long position, but there is a lack of intervention signals, so it is not considered for the time being. The short position at 2488 above continues to be held. If you want to connect on the left side, 2190 will come again🤣? If you can't connect, forget it #美国加密战略储备 #ETH
Jason秽土转生版
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Bullish
In the short term, the price has failed to maintain a bearish trend, creating a new swing low, and the swing low is gradually rising to form a rising triangle structure. This structure looks to break through horizontal resistance, and the MACD has already crossed. The triple divergence in the RSI indicates a depletion of momentum. As long as the short-term structure is not broken, everything is fine. Therefore, the weekly chart tomorrow morning is likely to be safe. However, if we must go to 1580 tonight, what negative news is going to drive this 26% retracement? In summary, I gently added a position here with the previous low as the stop loss.
The consistently reliable USDT market share indeed shows that when the USDT market share drops, other risky assets rise. Once the first-hand cessation occurs, risk assets will have good opportunities. There will be chances in the next two days #XRP、SOL、ADA纳入美国战略储备?
Jason秽土转生版
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Bullish
The USDT market share is at a key resistance formed by the diagonal supply line, horizontal resistance, and fib0.618, showing a candlestick pattern pinbar, combined with an RSI overbought. Looking at a pullback in terms of USDT market share, all risk assets are rising 📈
Seeing everyone on Twitter shouting long, without hesitation go long, the Solana123 rule has good empty positions, the target position remains 92. Waiting for a stacked overbought buff as an entry signal. The left short position can almost be entered 📉📉📉📉📉📉#XRP、SOL、ADA纳入美国战略储备?
📉📉📉 Seeing everyone on Twitter shouting bull, it's time to short 🤣 just like when everyone was shouting bull death a few days ago. Target position by March is 71503#XRP、SOL、ADA纳入美国战略储备?
Jason秽土转生版
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Bearish
BTC speed is too fast, consider the upper edge of the channel and FIB0.5 (94195) as the second short position #BTC
BTC speed is too fast, consider the upper edge of the channel and FIB0.5 (94195) as the second short position #BTC
Jason秽土转生版
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Bullish
BTC at the key support level FIB0.5, fair value gap, and diagonal demand line forms a support resonance with a K-line pattern pinbar. In the short term, a rebound is expected near 91300 at the upper channel and horizontal resistance, but it is still within a secondary trend (bearish) structure. The current level of 78000 is not considered a temporary bottom; I personally believe there will be another oscillation back and forth. The next wave of pullback should correspond to the March 19 Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with a risk of pausing interest rate cuts #BTC
BTC at the key support level FIB0.5, fair value gap, and diagonal demand line forms a support resonance with a K-line pattern pinbar. In the short term, a rebound is expected near 91300 at the upper channel and horizontal resistance, but it is still within a secondary trend (bearish) structure. The current level of 78000 is not considered a temporary bottom; I personally believe there will be another oscillation back and forth. The next wave of pullback should correspond to the March 19 Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with a risk of pausing interest rate cuts #BTC
The USDT market share is at a key resistance formed by the diagonal supply line, horizontal resistance, and fib0.618, showing a candlestick pattern pinbar, combined with an RSI overbought. Looking at a pullback in terms of USDT market share, all risk assets are rising 📈
In the short term, the price has failed to maintain a bearish trend, creating a new swing low, and the swing low is gradually rising to form a rising triangle structure. This structure looks to break through horizontal resistance, and the MACD has already crossed. The triple divergence in the RSI indicates a depletion of momentum. As long as the short-term structure is not broken, everything is fine. Therefore, the weekly chart tomorrow morning is likely to be safe. However, if we must go to 1580 tonight, what negative news is going to drive this 26% retracement? In summary, I gently added a position here with the previous low as the stop loss.
The closing status of this weekly ETH candle at 8 AM tomorrow is crucial. As long as the weekly closes above this convergence zone, it is safe. If it closes below 2080, well, I might as well place a defensive order at 1580 on the left side. #ETH