财经一鸣

Simple?

Options market volatility, Wall Street wolves sharpening their knives, BTC may face a huge shock

OKX Bitcoin options open interest surged 7.16% in 24 hours, total open interest exceeded 22,500 BTC! The options market has suddenly become active, usually accompanied by two major possibilities:

1. Large funds betting on directional breakthroughs, such as wagering on BTC breaking previous highs or crashing

2. The operators using options tools to collect contracts in the market, either by dumping or pushing up against opponents

Currently, BTC's technical analysis shows a doji candlestick wandering, with $84,000 pressure as solid as iron, RSI repeatedly testing around 50, and MACD about to form a death cross. If it breaks below $81,000, we could see the 70s!

Key events: April 2nd Trump's tariff policy implementation, April Federal Reserve meeting; any black swan event could be leveraged by large options players, triggering a bloodbath in the spot market! #AmericanBitcoin发布会

15 hours ago, an Ethereum ICO address that had been dormant for 6 years suddenly activated, transferring 5000 ETH (approximately 9.22 million USD) to the market maker Cumberland. This is not all—over the past 22 days, this whale has accumulated a total transfer of 6890 ETH (12.55 million USD), and currently still holds 34,000 ETH (62.45 million USD), which could be sold off at any moment!

What does this mean?

The whale senses danger; such long-term holders suddenly unloading their assets often indicates extreme pessimism about the market outlook or an attempt to lock in profits to avoid the risk of a crash.

This directly leads to a deterioration of ETH's technical outlook, with the price stuck at 1800 USD and unable to rise, RSI breaking below 50, and MACD about to form a death cross. If the whale continues to sell off, the 1500 USD support line might collapse in an instant!

ETH bulls must set stop-losses to guard against the "whale fall effect" triggering a chain reaction of liquidations! #加密市场回调

As the market has developed to this point, I feel that we still need to wait for the actual beginning of the interest rate cut cycle to see a good market. Looking at the market over the past few days, 1-2m is basically the ceiling for memes.

How do you play this? However, for small research individuals, it might be an opportunity, but it is hard to see a major market trend; local hotspots will still exist, but the difficulty is higher.

Therefore, for most of us, it is better to just hold on and keep enough chips.

Finding opportunities in extreme market conditions, instant gains and feedback can be very apparent, but for altcoins, more dimensions are needed to judge whether it's worth buying, because the ability of altcoins to continuously rise basically depends on the will of the market makers.~

Moreover, the decline in altcoins needs to be significantly larger than that of Bitcoin to be considered safe, and it should also be assessed whether the decline of Bitcoin has ended. A comprehensive judgment is necessary to bottom out altcoins, and when trading altcoins with leverage, it should be small; otherwise, the risk is too high!

It is expected that in the next 1 to 2 weeks, the market may experience a significant rebound. Everyone should seize the opportunity; those with leveraged positions should clear their leverage, and those with heavy positions must clean them up. Holding more than 30% cash will provide peace of mind, regardless of whether the market goes up or down.

I have always strived to ensure that every member in our circle is well-equipped for investment. By controlling positions and selecting quality investment targets, one can profit during market uptrends and have funds available to buy the dip during downturns.

For example, right now, I still have 30% cash reserves, which also includes off-exchange funds. Overall, I maintain this level. So even if the market continues to decline, I can accept it calmly.

Some people say they buy the dip every time the market falls, but now they have no money left. Investing requires flexibility; every time there is a decline, buying the dip has led to a rebound since the establishment of my circle. A rebound is an opportunity to sell and reclaim cash, and the cycle continues.

Some members buy in and then foolishly wait for it to rise, wanting even more profit, only to miss the exit opportunity. Everyone should use their 30% cash position to buy the dip during significant declines, and after the market rebounds, remember to exit. This not only reduces your position risk but also lowers your holding cost.

Human greed is difficult to overcome. Fear sets in again during downturns. While this is normal, we must conquer it; otherwise, investing becomes very challenging. Especially in the crypto circle, where there are all kinds of characters watching your hard-earned money, if you cannot act against human nature, every day of decline will be tormenting.

Investors with a few hundred thousand and those with a few hundred must maintain a calm mindset. However, the premise of all this is that you must not invest with borrowed money. Investing with borrowed funds can only accept rising markets, and once it begins to decline, it leads to an abyss. I will stick with everyone until the end.

Yesterday's CPI was favorable, and the former president supported Tesla, but the US stock market is still in a volatile state, and Bitcoin is also halted before the strong resistance at 85000, with market confidence still lacking. However, the fact that Bitcoin is not falling and is slowly rising is a good thing, giving time and space for altcoins to rebound. Some altcoins, like Pepe, have surged for two consecutive days, and Trump has suddenly gained momentum, indicating that the main funds are clearly positioning in the meme sector. Currently, both coins have reached the pressure level of the daily middle track, showing signs of bottoming out, and any pullback can be a key opportunity for accumulation.

From the four-hour chart of ENA, it is clearly in a range-bound volatile market. Right now, we are waiting to see if ENA at this position will continue to drop to new lows. Short-term trading can involve some high-selling and low-buying. If it creates new lows, ENA is still in a downward trend.

A V-shaped reversal in the short term is unlikely unless the US stock market makes a V-shaped recovery. News like Binance receiving a $2 billion investment from a sovereign state should typically be very positive, but BNB only saw a slight rise in the morning. Ethereum and Solana also have positive news related to ETFs, yet this has also failed to stimulate a rise in coin prices, indicating that current market confidence is still insufficient and will need some time to recover. We are in a consolidation phase, gradually building a bottom.

Currently, the position at 76606 is a new short-term low, but Sister Bei believes that the market confidence and trading volume are lacking, and we are still waiting for a second bottom to appear. A good opportunity to enter with a larger position will be after the market stops falling.

For those with heavy positions, it's still advisable to sell a part during a bounce and then buy in again on the second drop, practicing high-selling and low-buying. For those with light positions, boldly accumulate during dips. Currently, various indicators also need time to slowly recover and build a bottom. Properly managing positions allows for both entry and exit; if it falls below a new low again, short-term stop-losses should be implemented. From a long-term perspective, the bull market this year is still intact; we just need to patiently wait.

Last night, the US CPI exceeded expectations, and tonight the non-farm payrolls will be announced.

Now the President is determined to achieve the interest rate cut target. Tonight, another shot will be given!

In the past few days, the market has experienced a pullback, mainly due to two reasons: first, the hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials; second, the market has rebounded significantly from the bottom and needs to take a breather. However, I believe this wave of rebound is not over yet.

Currently, the market is oscillating between a 50 and 75 basis point interest rate hike in September. Personally, I believe that the CPI in August should continue to decline, as there has been a significant drop in used car prices and rent in the U.S. this month, which can significantly reduce inflation.

Why is this round of the ETH bull market so weak???

The core value of Ethereum is essentially an asset issuance platform. Looking back at the past few cycles, whether it was ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, or GameFi, the core logic has always been "issuing new assets," followed by the processes of trading, liquidity, and value discovery. However, today the competition among asset issuance platforms has become much more intense, especially with new assets like meme coins being born more frequently on chains like Solana, challenging Ethereum's market share.

The deeper issue is that a lack of new asset issuance means insufficient incremental users, reduced market activity, and a direct impact on the prosperity of Ethereum’s ecosystem. From another perspective, if we compare Ethereum to a business, its "growth" is difficult to meet expectations, and a lack of user growth will naturally affect trading activity and on-chain economy.

What’s more concerning is that Ethereum's most proud "decentralization" feature is almost imperceptible to ordinary retail investors. The ones truly concerned about decentralization are mainly large institutions, core project teams, and geek users. While their size is significant, it does not necessarily translate to high transaction fee revenues. For example, even if ten Rolls-Royces drive on a highway, the toll they contribute is still far lower than the traffic of one thousand Wuling Hongguang vehicles.

Ethereum has seen insufficient innovation this round, and after the ETF, there are no new stories to tell; the hype can no longer be sustained. The methods of previous cycles were essentially Ponzi structures; thus, the market is constantly searching for new narratives—because the old models are hard to maintain, and new stories and concepts are needed to attract incremental funds. However, now the industry's focus is gradually shifting towards real income and RWA (real-world assets), hoping to support the market with a more solid economic foundation.

The problem is that once the industry begins to "get grounded," following the old paths of traditional valuation models and business logic, many things may become less appealing and may no longer stimulate FOMO (fear of missing out) emotions. After all, the growth of the real world is often slow and rational, while the fervor of Crypto is built on rapid growth and uncertainty. #MGX投资币安

CPI falls, which is a great benefit. In terms of macroeconomics, there is also a PPI data tonight and tomorrow evening's Consumer Confidence Index. Auntie Bitcoin probably won't have any major opportunities recently, pay more attention to the severely undervalued clones. Next week is the Nvidia GTC conference, and recently we can focus on AI Agents and computing power infrastructure projects. #MGX投资币安 #CPI数据来袭

March 13 Market Trends

1) Overall Market Trends
BTC rebounded, altcoins rebounded. The market capitalization of the top altcoin projects in this round is 1/3 of the previous round, indicating insufficient market liquidity.
U.S. stocks rebounded, and the U.S. February CPI cooled down, but the key is the CPI for March-April after tariff increases. If the U.S. removes China's Most-Favored-Nation status, tariffs on China will increase from 30% to over 60%.

2) Market Highlights:
1. Platform token BNB rebounded, Binance announced its first sale, with the UAE's Abu Dhabi investing $2 billion for a minority stake.
2. The hype around on-chain exchanges plummeted, as contracts had liquidation loopholes, allowing whales to repeatedly arbitrage.
3. Public chain IPs rose, with the IP Portal public beta officially launched, helping IP creators monetize.
4. Oracle RED rose, listed on Coinbase.
5. The political meme PWEASE on the SOL chain hit a new high. The frequency of market memes with golden dogs has dropped to every 4-5 days, approaching the rhythm of the last NFT market's final stage.

“This is the real good news! The data released yesterday was indeed positive, but so what?

Most retail investors have long lost confidence in the market, and last night's rebound was just a fleeting moment; we are still far from the real 'fox'!

However, the real blockbuster good news has arrived — Binance announced a $2 billion investment agreement with MGX, an artificial intelligence and advanced technology investment company based in Abu Dhabi. MGX will acquire a small equity stake in Binance, marking not only Binance's first acceptance of institutional investment but also one of the largest follow-on investments in cryptocurrency history.

Founded in 2024, MGX focuses on artificial intelligence and advanced technology, and its chairman, Tahanong, is the son of the founding father of the exchange, overseeing assets worth over $15 trillion. The significance of this investment is self-evident: it is a true shot in the arm for the crypto market, signaling institutional capital's strong confidence in the future of cryptocurrency!

News from March 13!

CICC predicts that U.S. inflation will cool down, with interest rate cuts postponed to the third quarter.

This has a significant impact on the cryptocurrency industry.

In the short term, the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, suppressing market liquidity expectations.

Prices of risk assets like cryptocurrencies are easily pressured.

Due to the delay in interest rate cuts, capital costs remain high, leading investors to prefer safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar.

The short-term speculative demand for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is weakened.

However, the decline in inflation also alleviates market concerns about tightening policies,

providing potential support for cryptocurrencies.

After all, cryptocurrencies have a correlation with traditional safe-haven assets.

When concerns about persistent inflation ease, some funds may flow into the cryptocurrency market.
#CPI数据来袭

A qualified investor must always keep 3k (electric vehicles) in their account and obtain 100 health certificates, and then you'll have the opportunity to make a comeback.

I have already started to layout in the Meituan industry, see you in the world, brothers, I am going to bottom fish and increase my holdings!!!

3.12 A Significant Rebound Is Not Far Away

1. Yesterday, BTC slightly broke the previous low and then welcomed a small rebound, but from the trading volume, it has not yet formed a bottom, and the US stock market has not yet shown signs of bottoming out.

2. The entire investment market has experienced a significant decline, and the BTC 73000 level is a very important support position, so pay close attention; a significant rebound is brewing.

Today, Bitcoin (BTC) has regained upward momentum after experiencing a significant drop. As of Wednesday morning in Asia, the price briefly reached $83,000. The overall cryptocurrency market value increased by 3.5%, bringing the global market capitalization to $2.67 trillion.

Tonight's CPI data is crucial.
Predictions:
1. Inflation is expected to be slightly higher than anticipated, delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts again.
2. Even if it is flat or lower than expected, the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates later in the year.

Currently, based on the FOMC interest rate probabilities, rate cuts in March are definitely out of the question. The probability of a rate cut in May is 45%, while in June it is 93%. If this week's CPI data is favorable and the U.S. government can continue funding on March 15, the probability of a rate cut in May will continue to rise. Personally, I hope for a figure around 2.9, which would allow the market to rebound by a few thousand points. After all, it has dropped significantly recently, and a rebound is needed to alleviate the downward market sentiment.

After extreme market conditions, a reversal often begins. A significant bottom may form by the end of this month or early next month, so everyone should be patient. Although the current market is torturous, this is also part of investing. The alternation between bull and bear markets is the norm, and the key is to maintain patience during the lows and stay alert during the highs.

For ordinary investors, the best strategy is to manage positions well, keep enough "ammunition," and wait for a clear direction from the market before taking action. After all, the market will not keep falling, nor will it keep rising; the key is to seize opportunities at the right time. #掌握市场

Recently, many people are shouting, "The Bitcoin bull market is over," and quite a few friends are panicking: "Is the bull market really gone?" "Should I cut losses and exit?" "Is this considered a bear market now?"

Let's get to the conclusion first: Even if we really enter a bear market, there is still a high probability that Bitcoin can touch $100,000 again. To put it simply, even if it can't break a new high, it still has to charge up to $100,000 and make a round.

Why do I say this? Investing, at the end of the day, is all about mindset. I’ve noticed that friends who have been asking recently, despite their different situations—some say, "What should I do if I'm about to lose my principal?" some ask, "Should I switch all my altcoins to Bitcoin?" and others are confused, "Can I still enter the market now?"—the core issue is the same: Should I cut losses now? My answer is very clear: Absolutely don’t cut!

Since we’ve judged that it can still surge to $100,000, why not add to your position now? Because we are in the second half of the bull market, the principle at this time is "get off the bus, but don’t get on it again," unless the price drops to a particularly tempting position (which it hasn’t reached yet).

Specific advice for the issues:
What to do if you’re about to lose your principal? Definitely don’t cut now; even if it drops, it won’t drop much further, wait to exit when it peaks next time.

What to do with a lot of altcoins? You must switch! As for which ones to switch and how, friends in similar situations can reach out to me for a chat.

Should I add to my position or reduce it? This completely depends on your current position; operations for heavy positions and light positions are completely different.

Key reminder: No matter if your account is in profit or loss now, you must keep your mindset steady. Just like in the last 10 minutes of an exam, the more anxious you are, the more mistakes you easily make. The most important thing now is to stay clear-headed and not be swayed by market emotions. The second half of the bull market is about who can stay calm; those who can keep their hands steady are often the ones who end up smiling last.

It has been said that after waiting a few days, the market will become clearer, and tonight's CPI data will be a key point.

Be patient and wait a bit longer.

The market itself spends 98% of the time observing and learning, and the remaining 2% can be used for trading.