crypto_xyzhou
擅长宏观，K线参考即可。稳健非激进选手，少赚总比亏了好吧
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When will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates?
We can think from a different perspective: how to resolve the U.S. Treasury bond crisis without lowering rates?
For friends who find it hard to read, the conclusion is at the end.
📌 Core of the issue
The essence of the U.S. Treasury bond issue is that debt is growing too quickly while the economy cannot keep up, along with high interest and inflation. The current scale of U.S. Treasury bonds has exceeded $36 trillion, with interest expenses alone accounting for 25% of fiscal revenue (2024 fiscal revenue is $4.919 trillion, and U.S. Treasury bond interest is about $1 trillion). If interest rates remain high, it will create a vicious cycle.
🔑 How to resolve it without lowering interest rates?
1. Fiscal Reform
Reducing the deficit; the current U.S. fiscal deficit accounts for 7.5% of GDP. If it can be reduced to below 3%, the pressure will be much less. We can refer to the practices during the Clinton era, saving expenditures by cutting military spending, reforming healthcare, and eliminating some unnecessary subsidies. The timing of @elonmusk's @DOGE appearing here is also quite coincidental.
For friends who find it hard to read, the conclusion is at the end.
📌 Core of the issue
The essence of the U.S. Treasury bond issue is that debt is growing too quickly while the economy cannot keep up, along with high interest and inflation. The current scale of U.S. Treasury bonds has exceeded $36 trillion, with interest expenses alone accounting for 25% of fiscal revenue (2024 fiscal revenue is $4.919 trillion, and U.S. Treasury bond interest is about $1 trillion). If interest rates remain high, it will create a vicious cycle.
🔑 How to resolve it without lowering interest rates?
1. Fiscal Reform
Reducing the deficit; the current U.S. fiscal deficit accounts for 7.5% of GDP. If it can be reduced to below 3%, the pressure will be much less. We can refer to the practices during the Clinton era, saving expenditures by cutting military spending, reforming healthcare, and eliminating some unnecessary subsidies. The timing of @elonmusk's @DOGE appearing here is also quite coincidental.
See original
To say or not to say, the emotional aspect is already quite in place, yet the index is still as high as 75 (shouldn't there be a big drop to below 50 before a V-shaped rebound...) BTW, to put it simply, next Wednesday's FMOC decision is likely still 4.25-4.5%, but afterwards, regarding employment data, to put it simply, due to previous excessive embellishments + Trump's performance benchmark line can't be too good initially (otherwise how can there be progress) + Trump urging Powell to cut interest rates a couple of days ago + "it might have been bad anyway" it might not look too good, thus increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts which is favorable for the market. As for the risk of market decline due to a rebound in inflation demand, we probably need to confirm that the data is bad before it ferments for another month? @Phyrex_Ni
@qinbafrank
In addition, WLFI= Brother Sun has been bottom-fishing ETH + the Supreme Emperor has started to reform, the probability of winning after the Q1 holiday is still quite large. If it really doesn't work, just treat it as waiting another two years to pay for the recognition. The current operation is holding the ETH spot that most people are stuck in with an 18% premium return at the end of January, a bag of -15-50% altcoins, and 10% USDC in @MorphoLabs
Wealth management 10%+ focusing on being adaptable.
@qinbafrank
In addition, WLFI= Brother Sun has been bottom-fishing ETH + the Supreme Emperor has started to reform, the probability of winning after the Q1 holiday is still quite large. If it really doesn't work, just treat it as waiting another two years to pay for the recognition. The current operation is holding the ETH spot that most people are stuck in with an 18% premium return at the end of January, a bag of -15-50% altcoins, and 10% USDC in @MorphoLabs
Wealth management 10%+ focusing on being adaptable.
See original
Reflecting on the Trump incident as a lesson
— At 10:30 AM on the 18th, I saw the market cap at 4 billion, thought it was a hack on the way and didn't think much about it since it was too high. Previously, my understanding was not to enter if it was above 500 million; now the market cap is already 32 billion, 8 times...
Reason
1. Not opening the CA website will connect to the small detail of moonshot. However, Brother Sun @0xSunNFT noticed it. But actually, if one suspects their account is hacked, they generally wouldn't click on links; just need to be more sensitive next time.
2. If you think about it carefully, would a real hack reach 4 billion in half an hour? Who would dare to hack the president's account? If it really was a hack causing user losses, wouldn’t the FBI chase them globally?
See original
Let's briefly review the mechanisms and profit potential of the three recent hot projects @_kaitoai @soon_svm @solayer_labs
1⃣Kaito
Essentially, helping project parties do social media marketing through YAP incentives is a great intention, but the algorithm still has a lot of room for improvement. For example, many low-weight accounts make less impact than some major influencers, including higher interaction weight, leading to a pyramid effect where ordinary promoters lose interest and choose to interact in major influencers' comments. At the same time, social media is flooded with various homogeneous 'kaito' voices.
If you don't understand, just ask:
1. Can score increases be a periodic update instead of daily, as this makes the specific algorithm easy to guess?
Essentially, helping project parties do social media marketing through YAP incentives is a great intention, but the algorithm still has a lot of room for improvement. For example, many low-weight accounts make less impact than some major influencers, including higher interaction weight, leading to a pyramid effect where ordinary promoters lose interest and choose to interact in major influencers' comments. At the same time, social media is flooded with various homogeneous 'kaito' voices.
If you don't understand, just ask:
1. Can score increases be a periodic update instead of daily, as this makes the specific algorithm easy to guess?
See original
In addition, if the current market falls further, BTC will be around 89,000 and ETH will be around 2,900. It can be said that there are bloody chips everywhere.
I am optimistic about the market in Q1, including some altcoins with background, actual use cases and strict selection by institutions, such as ldo, wld, lpt, etc.
If I don’t buy now, when will I buy?
If I have a full position in u, I will buy at least 60% now. The remaining 40% is reserved for the bottom
I am optimistic about the market in Q1, including some altcoins with background, actual use cases and strict selection by institutions, such as ldo, wld, lpt, etc.
If I don’t buy now, when will I buy?
If I have a full position in u, I will buy at least 60% now. The remaining 40% is reserved for the bottom
See original
Currently, various frameworks such as ai16z, swarms, and graffin
seem like the previous public chain infrastructures have developed a soil framework.
Then today, a new term comes out: defAi.
Various agents are like the DeFi that grew out of the public chain soil framework back in the day.
Interesting application scenarios:
1. Use trusted AI to issue tokens/add liquidity, without the various "hidden agendas" behind the contracts.
2. More users lose the sense of "on-chain" and "off-chain"; the AI front end has replaced the order books of centralized exchanges (CEX) and the pools of decentralized exchanges (DEX). Just like cross-chain, users do not need to know which cross-chain bridge is being used behind the scenes. Everything returns to intent trading. Just like when we pay merchants, we are not aware of the acquiring institutions, acquiring banks, the various fees involved, etc.
Let technology return to technology, and experience return to experience.
Although it may be a bit ahead of its time, thinking about it is still quite exciting.
seem like the previous public chain infrastructures have developed a soil framework.
Then today, a new term comes out: defAi.
Various agents are like the DeFi that grew out of the public chain soil framework back in the day.
Interesting application scenarios:
1. Use trusted AI to issue tokens/add liquidity, without the various "hidden agendas" behind the contracts.
2. More users lose the sense of "on-chain" and "off-chain"; the AI front end has replaced the order books of centralized exchanges (CEX) and the pools of decentralized exchanges (DEX). Just like cross-chain, users do not need to know which cross-chain bridge is being used behind the scenes. Everything returns to intent trading. Just like when we pay merchants, we are not aware of the acquiring institutions, acquiring banks, the various fees involved, etc.
Let technology return to technology, and experience return to experience.
Although it may be a bit ahead of its time, thinking about it is still quite exciting.
See original
Shufen's analysis is very rational and objective @shufen46250836
Although Usual was analyzed and the risk points were summarized in the early stage, the hashnote behind it was indeed ignored, because Usual had not issued a coin at that time.
The reasons for being optimistic before TGE can be roughly summarized as follows:
1. Narrative (the profits from issuing stablecoins to purchase treasury bonds are distributed to retail investors)
2. Team background
3. Pills lock-up time multiplier gameplay + not many people pay attention
4. Deterministic large-scale airdrop (official announcement)
Now that the project has TGE, the USD0++ yield is still as high as 33%, and the USUAL lock-up yield is as high as 236%. The yield of ordinary treasury bonds is less than 5%.
Sudden large-scale redemption by large investors = failure to cash out
Even if there is no large-scale redemption with large investors, the minting volume of USD0++ must be large enough, and the price of USUAL must be high enough, so that the 3% yield of USDY can be used to pull the market to maintain the high price of Usual.
It can be simply considered that the current 33% reward of USD0++ is guaranteed by the price of USUAL. It is recommended that the project party balance the APY of USD0 and the usual pledge APY (for example, greater than 10%). There will be a period of strong selling pressure at the beginning, but it is good as long as it can withstand the long-term. Otherwise, if the usual price collapses one day> the yield of USD0++ drops sharply> USD0 is redeemed on a large scale (through pool exchange)> USD0 is decoupled, it is easy to have a Davis double kill @Usual Official
Although Usual was analyzed and the risk points were summarized in the early stage, the hashnote behind it was indeed ignored, because Usual had not issued a coin at that time.
The reasons for being optimistic before TGE can be roughly summarized as follows:
1. Narrative (the profits from issuing stablecoins to purchase treasury bonds are distributed to retail investors)
2. Team background
3. Pills lock-up time multiplier gameplay + not many people pay attention
4. Deterministic large-scale airdrop (official announcement)
Now that the project has TGE, the USD0++ yield is still as high as 33%, and the USUAL lock-up yield is as high as 236%. The yield of ordinary treasury bonds is less than 5%.
Sudden large-scale redemption by large investors = failure to cash out
Even if there is no large-scale redemption with large investors, the minting volume of USD0++ must be large enough, and the price of USUAL must be high enough, so that the 3% yield of USDY can be used to pull the market to maintain the high price of Usual.
It can be simply considered that the current 33% reward of USD0++ is guaranteed by the price of USUAL. It is recommended that the project party balance the APY of USD0 and the usual pledge APY (for example, greater than 10%). There will be a period of strong selling pressure at the beginning, but it is good as long as it can withstand the long-term. Otherwise, if the usual price collapses one day> the yield of USD0++ drops sharply> USD0 is redeemed on a large scale (through pool exchange)> USD0 is decoupled, it is easy to have a Davis double kill @Usual Official
See original
Small Universe's 2025 Careful Selection (from Macro > Track > Token)
Small Universe's 2025 Strict Selection (from macro > track > token)
I'm afraid I'll get sleepy so I'll keep it brief so I won't go into details.
Macro
1⃣Trump's vote bank for winning the election is not a priority. We can wait and see how to deal with it when Trump comes online on January 20. If he mentions crypto-related policies (such as BTC strategic reserves, etc.), it will be a big positive, but the possibility is not high.
2⃣ Regarding the fourth quarter financial report and interest rate meeting in January, financial analysts are optimistic for the time being (I have not read it carefully to verify).
The interest rate meeting should suspend interest rate cuts. The key is how many times the rate will be cut throughout the year. I personally think it will not be too bad. First, Trump has just taken office and cannot be embarrassed. Second, after all, it was said in December that there would only be two rate cuts (expectation management). In reality, considering the current high interest rates and high debts in the United States, the actual number should be more than two.
I'm afraid I'll get sleepy so I'll keep it brief so I won't go into details.
Macro
1⃣Trump's vote bank for winning the election is not a priority. We can wait and see how to deal with it when Trump comes online on January 20. If he mentions crypto-related policies (such as BTC strategic reserves, etc.), it will be a big positive, but the possibility is not high.
2⃣ Regarding the fourth quarter financial report and interest rate meeting in January, financial analysts are optimistic for the time being (I have not read it carefully to verify).
The interest rate meeting should suspend interest rate cuts. The key is how many times the rate will be cut throughout the year. I personally think it will not be too bad. First, Trump has just taken office and cannot be embarrassed. Second, after all, it was said in December that there would only be two rate cuts (expectation management). In reality, considering the current high interest rates and high debts in the United States, the actual number should be more than two.
See original
Although, referencing last time's slerf
The BN contract sometimes has the same power as Brother Sun entering the market
The AI sector has been a bit overheated recently, so it's advisable not to chase highs
From an application perspective, AI is fine for the medium to long term, but agents are truly hard to discuss
Of course, this doesn't affect the brothers who are driving up the market
The BN contract sometimes has the same power as Brother Sun entering the market
The AI sector has been a bit overheated recently, so it's advisable not to chase highs
From an application perspective, AI is fine for the medium to long term, but agents are truly hard to discuss
Of course, this doesn't affect the brothers who are driving up the market
See original
A very vivid metaphor, about the virtuals ecosystem @kurorobeast
@virtuals_io is the country
@aixbt_agent is the president
@luna_virtuals is the influencer
@Vader_AI_ is the finance system
@AcolytAI is the intelligence network
Although the team @virtuals_io says it's not @pumpdotfun, the form of both the internal and external markets is indeed...
pump = directly sending meme PVP
virtuals = meme PVP with AI features
This has a bias against AI Agents, thinking that it is too advanced while actual use cases remain very basic and conceptual. However, it is forgotten that it does not hinder speculation. Although there is a lot of garbage on it, these few metaphorical targets are still quite good. Now, looking back, except for @AcolytAI, the market cap of the other few has already become quite large.
app.virtuals.io
@virtuals_io is the country
@aixbt_agent is the president
@luna_virtuals is the influencer
@Vader_AI_ is the finance system
@AcolytAI is the intelligence network
Although the team @virtuals_io says it's not @pumpdotfun, the form of both the internal and external markets is indeed...
pump = directly sending meme PVP
virtuals = meme PVP with AI features
This has a bias against AI Agents, thinking that it is too advanced while actual use cases remain very basic and conceptual. However, it is forgotten that it does not hinder speculation. Although there is a lot of garbage on it, these few metaphorical targets are still quite good. Now, looking back, except for @AcolytAI, the market cap of the other few has already become quite large.
app.virtuals.io
See original
This year's BGB rally is almost considered as a platform Pi Xiu coin. Many people have overlooked another undervalued HSK, which has risen from 0.8 to 2.3 in just one month since its launch. @HashKeyExchange @HashKeyHSK
This year, we can see a lot of attempts in 'compliance' in web3, whether it's using U for payments to attend conferences or more explorations of compliant card issuance to bring U into web2. It can be seen that this direction of 'compliance' or 'Payfi' has become increasingly mature. As the only compliant public chain @HashKeyHSK, its current 200 million MC and 2 billion FDV are undervalued. Traditional finance can bring assets they want to issue onto the chain in forms like RWA, including stablecoins and cross-border payment settlements. Many traditional investors, looking for compliance, will definitely choose the HSK chain first (not to mention that its parent company already has compliant deposit and withdrawal services). HSK is an important medium for rewards and payments.
With the expansion of demand for more payments and RWA in the future, I believe HSK has the opportunity to generate a massive compliant protocol application, possibly a BTCfi, like the recently established partnership with solv, or traditional LP's on-chain wealth management, etc.
There have been discussions about internal holdings of departing personnel being too large, but as a compliant institution, this should be negotiable in OTC and unlock periods, so there's no need to worry too much.
I don't know how many have seen this, but I'm looking forward to the moment of true mass adoption of payment/wealth management that integrates web2 and web3.
This year, we can see a lot of attempts in 'compliance' in web3, whether it's using U for payments to attend conferences or more explorations of compliant card issuance to bring U into web2. It can be seen that this direction of 'compliance' or 'Payfi' has become increasingly mature. As the only compliant public chain @HashKeyHSK, its current 200 million MC and 2 billion FDV are undervalued. Traditional finance can bring assets they want to issue onto the chain in forms like RWA, including stablecoins and cross-border payment settlements. Many traditional investors, looking for compliance, will definitely choose the HSK chain first (not to mention that its parent company already has compliant deposit and withdrawal services). HSK is an important medium for rewards and payments.
With the expansion of demand for more payments and RWA in the future, I believe HSK has the opportunity to generate a massive compliant protocol application, possibly a BTCfi, like the recently established partnership with solv, or traditional LP's on-chain wealth management, etc.
There have been discussions about internal holdings of departing personnel being too large, but as a compliant institution, this should be negotiable in OTC and unlock periods, so there's no need to worry too much.
I don't know how many have seen this, but I'm looking forward to the moment of true mass adoption of payment/wealth management that integrates web2 and web3.
See original
It is too early to judge whether the bull will be 2025 or 2024. We can only wait until the end of the year. Bitcoin’s seemingly four-year cycle is not a fixed rule or a curse, but corresponds to the economic cycle every time.
Even if interest rates are cut in March next year, if there is no new BTC narrative, the probability of reaching a new high is unlikely. It may be the BTC fee ecosystem or RWA (refer to 2020 defi summer)
The current market has been sideways for a month. It depends on whether the last interest rate hike is announced next week in July. The announcement is unlikely. It is very likely that the market will rebound when the boots hit the ground, but the amplitude will not exceed 3.2W, and then it will start to fall due to liquidity problems.
The wave just now basically eliminated the long orders, and then the short orders below 29,700 were basically eliminated, and it was almost possible to go sideways.
Even if interest rates are cut in March next year, if there is no new BTC narrative, the probability of reaching a new high is unlikely. It may be the BTC fee ecosystem or RWA (refer to 2020 defi summer)
The current market has been sideways for a month. It depends on whether the last interest rate hike is announced next week in July. The announcement is unlikely. It is very likely that the market will rebound when the boots hit the ground, but the amplitude will not exceed 3.2W, and then it will start to fall due to liquidity problems.
The wave just now basically eliminated the long orders, and then the short orders below 29,700 were basically eliminated, and it was almost possible to go sideways.
See original
Some thoughts on the sideways month and the big cycle:
1/5 BTC The 2012 halving and the 2016 halving were not yet out of the circle. The Ethereum ecosystem was also in its infancy in early 2015, so there is no evaluation.
The surge to a high of 69,000 after the third halving in 2020 is closely related to DEFI summer and the US’s 480 million water release, as well as the entry of institutions such as Grayscale.
Narrative + Macro + Liquidity = Market Price
First of all, it is not a bull market and there are no conditions. It is difficult to judge whether 3.1W is a bullish top. Personally, I think there may be another interest rate hike in September. July may not be the last one. There may be another one in September. But we can basically confirm that the bottom will be explored before the bull comes.
1/5 BTC The 2012 halving and the 2016 halving were not yet out of the circle. The Ethereum ecosystem was also in its infancy in early 2015, so there is no evaluation.
The surge to a high of 69,000 after the third halving in 2020 is closely related to DEFI summer and the US’s 480 million water release, as well as the entry of institutions such as Grayscale.
Narrative + Macro + Liquidity = Market Price
First of all, it is not a bull market and there are no conditions. It is difficult to judge whether 3.1W is a bullish top. Personally, I think there may be another interest rate hike in September. July may not be the last one. There may be another one in September. But we can basically confirm that the bottom will be explored before the bull comes.
See original
Painting the door just three hours after posting, what are you talking about🙄
Don’t chase highs in the near future, but you can buy dips near 1840~1880
Don’t chase highs in the near future, but you can buy dips near 1840~1880
See original
Let me talk about the conclusion first: I am personally relatively bearish, and liquidity is already very tight now. Not to mention the issue of recession.
The U.S. debt crisis will explode sooner or later, and with the interest rate hikes, the economy still seems to be strong? If you don’t panic, I will.
If the bulls come now, will interest rates continue to rise after the rate cut? Interest rates will start to be cut in 2024. Counting from the beginning of 2023, will Slow Bull rise for two years? is it possible
The U.S. debt crisis will explode sooner or later, and with the interest rate hikes, the economy still seems to be strong? If you don’t panic, I will.
If the bulls come now, will interest rates continue to rise after the rate cut? Interest rates will start to be cut in 2024. Counting from the beginning of 2023, will Slow Bull rise for two years? is it possible
See original
During this period, both long and short orders were concentrated at 29500-31500, especially for high-multiple contracts.
So the banker will see back and forth here and harvest again and again.
The 25 basis point in July is basically fixed, so there may be a wave of stretching when it lands together, but the narrative behind it is lacking.
My personal feeling is that the dealer will pull up again, causing a false breakthrough to around 32,000, and all short orders will be eliminated. Then start the decline.
If one sentence is awesome now, how will the currency industry go when interest rates are cut at the beginning of the year?
Save your bullets!
So the banker will see back and forth here and harvest again and again.
The 25 basis point in July is basically fixed, so there may be a wave of stretching when it lands together, but the narrative behind it is lacking.
My personal feeling is that the dealer will pull up again, causing a false breakthrough to around 32,000, and all short orders will be eliminated. Then start the decline.
If one sentence is awesome now, how will the currency industry go when interest rates are cut at the beginning of the year?
Save your bullets!
See original
Can anyone explain why the U.S. two-year and ten-year Treasury bonds have such a serious inversion, and interest rates have been kept at a high level for so long, but the labor market is still so strong?
Interest rates are so high, liquidity is so poor, and the employment environment cannot be unaffected. In other words, there will definitely be a deep bear market with the collapse of the labor market in the next six months.
Save your bullets to buy the bottom
Interest rates are so high, liquidity is so poor, and the employment environment cannot be unaffected. In other words, there will definitely be a deep bear market with the collapse of the labor market in the next six months.
Save your bullets to buy the bottom
See original
Respect
So I really recommend that if you don’t have time to play with contracts, it would be better to just invest in the bull market.
So I really recommend that if you don’t have time to play with contracts, it would be better to just invest in the bull market.
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