Some thoughts on the sideways month and the big cycle:

1/5 BTC The 2012 halving and the 2016 halving were not yet out of the circle. The Ethereum ecosystem was also in its infancy in early 2015, so there is no evaluation.

The surge to a high of 69,000 after the third halving in 2020 is closely related to DEFI summer and the US’s 480 million water release, as well as the entry of institutions such as Grayscale.

Narrative + Macro + Liquidity = Market Price

First of all, it is not a bull market and there are no conditions. It is difficult to judge whether 3.1W is a bullish top. Personally, I think there may be another interest rate hike in September. July may not be the last one. There may be another one in September. But we can basically confirm that the bottom will be explored before the bull comes.