Small Universe's 2025 Strict Selection (from macro > track > token)

I'm afraid I'll get sleepy so I'll keep it brief so I won't go into details.

Macro

1⃣Trump's vote bank for winning the election is not a priority. We can wait and see how to deal with it when Trump comes online on January 20. If he mentions crypto-related policies (such as BTC strategic reserves, etc.), it will be a big positive, but the possibility is not high.

2⃣ Regarding the fourth quarter financial report and interest rate meeting in January, financial analysts are optimistic for the time being (I have not read it carefully to verify).

The interest rate meeting should suspend interest rate cuts. The key is how many times the rate will be cut throughout the year. I personally think it will not be too bad. First, Trump has just taken office and cannot be embarrassed. Second, after all, it was said in December that there would only be two rate cuts (expectation management). In reality, considering the current high interest rates and high debts in the United States, the actual number should be more than two.

3⃣ Buffett holds a large amount of cash + high yield spread expansion (capital hedging to short BTC) + inflation fluctuations possibly caused by Trump's immigration tariffs and energy policies + potential issues in U.S. commercial real estate (debts/default rates and vacancy rates). The possibility of a significant drop in 2025 is high, but timing cannot be estimated; we first need to see Q2 and Q3. However, subsequent government QE-like measures to save the market could trigger a wave of strong rebounds from low points.

Promising tracks

1⃣ RRWA/Compliance/Payfi track (related to real assets)

The liquidity of traditional assets is limited; for example, real estate, bonds, etc. usually require complex trading processes and take a long time. Through tokenization, assets can be divided into smaller units and traded on the blockchain, significantly improving liquidity.

Then there are the advantages of blockchain's instant settlement, transparency, traceability, low transaction costs, and autonomous trading around the clock.

Cross-border payment settlement and enterprise-level financing settlement (like huma) are also major growth points for the future. (Referencing web2's wise, stripe, airwallex, etc.)

By December 2024, the tokenization market size of real-world assets (RWA) has reached approximately $14 billion, a 66% increase since the beginning of the year. Bitwise predicts that by 2025, the RWA market size could reach $50 billion. McKinsey forecasts that by 2030, the global tokenized asset market size could reach $4 trillion.

Focus: ONDO/TRU/POLYX/MKR/CFG/PEDNLE/TOKEN/HSK, etc.

2⃣ AI track

- Traditional RENDER/FET/OCEAN/AIOZ/TAO/AKT, etc.

- Privacy-focused ROSE/MINA

- Agent ecosystem series like virtual/ai16z/swarms/griffain, and their respective ecosystems like aixbt/vader/luna/freya/evo/metav/aimonica, etc. However, excluding platform tokens, the speculative nature within these ecosystems has led to relatively high market values.

AI Ecosystem:

https://coingecko.com/en/categories/artificial-intelligence

Regarding agents, you can refer to:

https://x.com/shufen46250836/status/1874449701870928026

But I have a bias: is web3's AI a false proposition? I look forward to AI + Depin producing some real applications. For example, the stepn running shoes from back in the day helped obtain some real user data.

3⃣ Presidential/Institutional Selection track

- The WLFI fund supported by Trump and his sons (Trump has tweeted about it, also known as 'Presidential Selection')

https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/worldlibertyfi

- Grayscale holdings list

https://coinank.com/en/grayscale

It can be seen that both place considerable importance on the Defi/RWA field with practical use cases, so everyone can pick some favorites from the list.

4⃣ Other tracks

Depin needs to emerge in a way that is more suitable for integration with AI rather than operating in isolation.

BTCfi For example, current projects like solv, babylon, etc. essentially follow the old path of Ethereum restaking, waiting for innovation in asset paradigms.