September 2, 2024 Bitcoin Forecast Quotes from Binance Continuation of the analysis from 8-24 As mentioned above, the big cake must be violently pulled up at a certain position and cannot break These key points are used as references and necessary positions for bulls and bears All big markets are small and large and advance step by step. At the moment of structural change, we can only follow the trend, not go against the trend Although this round of market, whether it is the money-making effect or the compound interest of funds, is not as good as other rounds of bull markets. The point is that this round of market does not have the general rise trend of other rounds of market. The initial inscription is just a wave of flow. The other large and small hot spots in the later period are almost all for harvesting According to previous experience, friends who have made fixed investments or long-term holdings of Ethereum are almost lonely Let’s stop talking and return to the market. In the previous trend, I explained the trend. The daily level of the indicator OBV has been hovering at a low level. From today’s point of view, OBV has fallen below the daily low. I will not elaborate on the wave pattern of the big structure, mainly because it is difficult to plan and judge at present. If I am forced to plan, I think the trend since 15XXX is at the level of wave B monthly line. The central idea of the above is that there is a high probability of a bear market. According to the forced planning, the future target is below 15XXX (as shown in the figure) This round of new highs is a false bull market. The end of the wave C or wave Y of the monthly line level of the wave B of the bull market adjustment for ten years is the real bull market coming for the next ten years. These cycles are too long. Let's talk about the short-term (as shown in the figure) Short-term 4-hour support plus a small deviation There is a demand for a rebound. Whether it will rebound is to be determined. But if it rebounds, you can choose to short at the right time. The level is a medium- and long-term short position layout That's basically it. If there are other changes in the market, I will notify you separately There are several ways to open positions here. I have explained them for reference only and do not use them as a basis for opening positions. 1. Empty the bottom position at the market price by 30%. Add positions when it goes up. Stop loss 65XXX 2. Wait for a rebound and short. Stop loss 65XXX Adjournment
On August 11, I proposed two sets of bull and bear scenarios. (I will continue to share on Binance later) Here I will continue the two sets of views on the market in the bull market and the bear market. (Figure 1) As for the bear market, here is wave C, which can end at any time and turn downward. That is, the third white pen, which can end at any time. This is when the index is below 70,000. It is not clear where the rebound will end. It depends on the market's combined force. (Figure 2) As shown in the figure, we need to observe that in the short term, we cannot fall to the central axis and oscillate. If it drops to the vicinity of the central axis in the short term, we think that wave C or wave Y, that is, the third white pen, will end. The market is likely to continue the bear market. Then from the bottom, it is wave B or wave X. As for the bull market, the trend here is defined as 5-3 waves. The target is far away. The target of the entire 5 waves is around 100,000. The 5-3 waves will oscillate at a high level, oscillate strongly, and keep rising. Break the pressure and break the previous high SO. Recently, I will observe the strength of the trend. If it is strong, we will see the bull market; if it is weak, we will see the bear market. Don’t ask me whether I am long or short. We are currently at the boundary line between long and short. There is no clear long or short position in the big structure. In terms of operation, the conservative idea is to follow the breakthrough of the last analysis, or do it after the short position is confirmed. Take more rest in the remaining time. There is no other view here. At present, there are only these two views. Just do good things and don’t ask about the future!
It is currently in wave 5 in the short term. From the bottom 24XXX, it is feasible to regard it as the guided fifth wave or the three-saw Z wave. But whether it is a triple zigzag or wave 5 of the guiding wave, it is the tail end. That is the selling position of 1 Look for opportunities to go short in the short term The sub-level 1 selling may have already appeared or it has not yet appeared. My personal tendency has already appeared. With pictures:
It's just that both sets of views are about a decline, but the expectations are different.
If the three saw teeth are used, it is regarded as an adjustment and will penetrate 24XXX in the future. Wave 5 is regarded as the beginning of the mid-term market. Make a small adjustment here. You can pull down Fibonacci 38.2% to find your own position.
The last chapter of Dual Blade Flow: Building a trading system
The trading system is to institutionalize, systematize and quantify transactions. This eliminates unnecessary losses caused by mentality in transactions. Institutionalized and systematic trading can avoid the impact of mentality on trading. 1 Understanding of the market The first thing to make clear is that you need to form a clear general direction for the market, whether it is fundamental or technical. Through theory, we know that taking Bitcoin as an example, we know that Bitcoin will definitely break through the previous low of 15,000 in a certain period of time in the future, forming 2 sells or 1 buy. Then under the premise of making transactions, try to choose the short trend to do it. If you follow the trend, It is not easy to be stopped.
Double Blade Advanced Open Class - Theory of Fate and Origin, with Miscellaneous Talk
The concept of destiny theory has always existed, but in the currency circle it was proposed by Mr. Liu. I personally used it quite a lot before Bitcoin 21 years ago, and it was quite easy to use. Theory of origin and destiny: The top or bottom originating from the driving wave will not deviate from the original destiny no matter how it is adjusted. How to understand? Let’s make a hypothesis. Suppose there is a drive to the upside. Then there will definitely be a third drive that is an upside. The goal of the third drive is to penetrate the top of the first drive. Assuming that the first move is wave 1, then the third move, wave 3, breaks through the top of wave 1 to form.
Double Blade Advanced Open Class - Buy and Sell Points and Range Sets
All the methods, logic and every detail we mentioned above are to prepare for the buying and selling point. Buying and selling points are divided into three categories The first category: In fact, it is the beginning of wave 1, which is called 1 buy in theory. It is also the end of the divergence of the adjustment wave. That is, the end position of an adjustment trend. The second category: that is, in our wave theory, the end of the divergence segment at the end of the wave 2 adjustment is referred to as the second buy. The third category: the correction wave that occurs after the exit period after the 2nd purchase. The wave summary is the end of wave 4. That is to say, you can enter the market after the second center is constructed. Referred to as 3 buy or yes.
Double Blade Flow - Advanced Chaos Theory - Divergence
Divergence should be emphasized because through divergence we can better deal with the issue of whether the third transaction at the beginning is wave 3 or wave C.
In the process of making videos for you, a series of professional terms with contradictory structures often appear. Backward movement is not difficult to understand! In dynamics, divergence is actually a manifestation of strength failure and is also reflected in the application of K-line.
The center has the same gravitational force on the entering and exiting segments. The more pens that build the center, the greater the energy. The greater the energy of the center, the greater the gravitational force. If you use gravity to interpret it, you may not understand it.
My system tells me this needs to be discussed together. Originally, according to the winding theory, here we will talk about the trend types of the winding theory, but I think it would be better to introduce the concept of the center into the wave.
In fact, the adjustment waves in the waves are all pivots, but the symbols of the wind theory are the size ABC, one buy, two buy, three buy and sell. I think it is too complicated.
Here I will briefly talk about my definition of waves.
I define the 12345 wave as the departure section of the two centers. As long as the two centers are formed and there is an entry section and a departure section, I usually treat it as a driving wave structure. The driving wave is 12345.
The levels in waves are defined as micro waves, small waves, big waves, etc. But I think it would be better and more adaptable to the market to introduce the level division of entanglement here.
That is, time 1 F 5 F 15 F 1F 4F daily line These levels are recursive from 1-minute line segments or pens to 5-minute line segments or pens. In the same way, the above levels are layers of recursion, so I won’t elaborate too much. In fact, it would be better to use video with K line here.
The main reason is that the wave does not have a clear definition of the levels. The winding theory divides the levels into multiple levels through the dimension of time.
The center belongs to a very core type in the entanglement theory, and the corresponding one is the adjustment wave of the wave.
A standard pivot consists of at least three overlapping strokes.
The entry section of the center The pen that constitutes the center The exit section of the center As shown in the picture:
The core of the center is low, medium, high, high, medium and low. Remember these words. These words serve as central principles To define the center, draw it according to the first three strokes: high, middle, low, low, middle and high. make no mistake
In the rising center, the exit section is also upward, and conversely, in the falling center, the exit section is also downward.
My brushes basically don't change much from traditional brushes, but brushes are the core of my trading system. At the same time, I also used the brush as a foreshadowing for subsequent processing of wave level issues and wave brush issues. Otherwise, students will definitely ask why we keep talking about entanglement theory when talking about waves.
The upward stroke consists of bottom parting, middle line segment and top parting. The downward stroke consists of top parting, middle line segment and bottom parting. Other brush methods are for reference only. I only interpret them according to the traditional brush patterns.
The previous article talked about the destruction of the top parting type, let’s talk about it here. How can I be sure that the pen is formed.
In the logic of entanglement, typing is equivalent to the bricks you use to build a house. I personally think that the drawing method of parting is relatively simple and easy to understand. I won’t say much and just go straight to the teaching.
In the inclusion process of three consecutive K lines, only the above four situations can be obtained. 1. The rising K line makes a new high but not a new low. 2. The falling K-line makes a new low but not a new high. 3-top type: The high and low points of the middle K-line are higher than the K-lines on both sides. 4-bottom type: the K-line low in the middle and the K-lines on both sides of the average hell Destruction of top and bottom parting: After the top split pattern is formed, the next K line is a rising K line and breaks through the high point of the top split pattern, then it is regarded as the destruction of the top split pattern.
Double Blade Advanced Open Class - Inclusion Relationship
A long time ago, I have always wanted to make a series of video copywriting collections that combine entanglement and waves. But as everyone knows, it is easier said than done. It is easier to think than to do. I think it is still more difficult.
I personally interpret the concept of entanglement theory as light entanglement theory. I made a simplified version through my understanding and combination of waves, and also respected the earliest trading model of Zen Master. I personally also came to the conclusion through long-term retracement and retracement. This combination is feasible and has certain reference value.
Before talking about the inclusion relationship, we first understand the K line. If the high and low points of one K line are all in the same range as the high and low points of another K line, then this K line does not belong to the inclusion relationship and is not included.
Double Blade Advanced Open Class - Basic Rules of Waves 2
The previous article explained some simple basic rules of waves. This article explains in detail the complexity of corrective waves. Regarding the correction wave, I am just throwing out ideas and welcome everyone's corrections.
1 single sawtooth
A single zigzag is defined as three strokes of ABC, of which wave A is the driving wave composed of 12345, wave B is ABC, and wave C is composed of 12345. The trend of a single zigzag is relatively clear and easy to define. The rebound amplitude of wave B is between 0.382-0.618 of wave A. This depends on the strength of the market rebound. In terms of proportion, wave C is more equidistant from wave A’s 1-1.618 AC. 2 platform shape
Double Blade Advanced Open Class - Basic Rules of Waves 1
A complete market movement consists of five waves, and five waves of the same level will constitute a wave of the next larger level.
In this article I will introduce the basic characteristics of wave motion.
Wave 135 moves in the same main direction, while wave 24 moves in the opposite direction. Wave 2 is the retracement of wave 1. Wave 4 is the retracement of wave 3. The difference between waves in the main direction and waves in the opposite direction is that the former can be decomposed into sub-level wave 5 while the latter can only be decomposed into sub-level 3 waves.
In order to further understand these characteristics, let us analyze the trend type in the figure below. In this complete wave 5 movement
Double-blade advanced open class-a brief discussion on the differences between traders, analysts and fund managers
In fact, in my opinion, in layman's terms, analysts only need to brag, independent traders are responsible for their own funds, while fund managers are responsible for their clients' funds.
Contrary to the market predictions that analysts often make, good traders only follow the rules and never make any market predictions. A good trader will not be a good analyst, and a good analyst will not be a good trader. Due to their different positions, the methods they adopt when dealing with the market are also fundamentally different. ,Usage analysis and usage rules are highly representative ,of these two groups of people. This is probably what the saying goes, "What you can say cannot be done, and what you can do cannot be said."
Taking my many years of trading experience as an example, I will not elaborate on some false and empty statements to fool everyone.
No matter what kind of trading system, there is indeed a big aunt cycle. Taking the current market as an example, the mid-term trend of Bitcoin has three possibilities: down, big down, and big up. However, if you choose a direction and respond according to the stop loss, even with a 30% bottom position, the retracement will be unbearable. . For example, when the market rises to 28XXX and you view it as a short position, then your stop loss needs to be placed at 32,000 US dollars. Only by completely breaking through here can you deny that the short trend does not exist.
Thousands of people are learning about waves, but because the content is boring and difficult to understand, they lack the corresponding knowledge accumulation and comprehension ability. Without sufficient market experience, it is difficult to grasp its spiritual essence. Based on years of study and review of entanglement theory, and in the spirit of inquiry, a comprehensive and systematic review of the application of waves in the Bitcoin market was conducted. Verification and investigation. Strive to avoid some complex and difficult-to-understand abstract trends and use simple and easy-to-understand language, graphics, and videos to provide an in-depth interpretation of how waves can be more effectively applied to the Bitcoin market.
For traders who are effective in technical analysis, wave theory is undoubtedly a required course. In the 1920s and 1930s, Dow Theory, Gann and Wave Theory were born one after another. So far, various extensions of technical analysis have not been able to escape the scope of these major theories.
The road ahead is as hard as iron, but now we can start over!
On June 26, we raised the possibility of whether the wave Zc of the excessive cycle has ended. (For details, please refer to the Bitcoin prediction for 6-26 days)
Taking Bitcoin from the 8th to the 17th as the base point, the period between 31,800 and 28,625 US dollars is assumed to be the driving wave structure of the separation period between the two centers.
The subsequent rebound trend of small-level ABC is relatively regular.
From a morphological point of view, I was more inclined to the driving wave at the time, but it was also feasible to interpret the correction wave as a three-saw tooth as Zb. The trend is so ambiguous most of the time. It all depends on subjective judgment! This is why I'm not very inclined to go short. Although it is a certain short position!