On June 26, we raised the possibility of whether the wave Zc of the big cycle has ended. (For details, please refer to the Bitcoin forecast on June 26)

Taking Bitcoin from 8 to 17 as the base point, the range of 31,800-28,625 US dollars is assumed to be the driving wave structure of the departure segment of the two centers.

The subsequent small-level ABC rebound trend was relatively regular.

From the perspective of morphology, I was more inclined to the driving wave at that time, but it is also feasible to interpret it as a three-tooth adjustment wave as Zb. The trend is so ambiguous most of the time. It all depends on subjective judgment! This is why I am not very inclined to short. Although I have a certain short position!

Based on the trend since 30242 USD, it is feasible to assume that it is the wave A3 or W-c that ended since 15XXX-318XX.

Even here, as Z-b-c since 15XXX, I am not so opposed. (For ZBC, the duration of wave B is too long, Wb is 16 days, and Yb is 18 days. So I personally don’t have a preference for the ZBC plan, but it conforms to the theory)

Time: It has been 234 days since the price reached 15,000 USD. If the price is based on 31,800 USD, the rebound rate is 61.8%.

In terms of space: it has rebounded by more than 26.8% since $15,000, but less than 38.2%, meeting the minimum rebound requirements.

Structurally: The tail of the three-zigzag Z wave can also be explained by the driving wave, but it is not so reasonable (the only reasonable explanation is the three-zigzag)

The overall goal remains unchanged. If there is another crash of the type 312 519 below 15,000, there will be hope for a grand market. Otherwise, there is no bull market! It is not advisable to use history as a mirror.

Continuing the small structure, the possibility of Zc is greatly reduced, and what remains is to enter positions at those positions and the target positions taking A3WC as an example, as well as the points where the left-side upward attack ends with certainty.

Using AC equidistant measurement, the 1:1 position is 27045 and the 1.618 position is 25068. In other words, assuming AC is established, I think at least go to 27XXX-25XXX first.

Use the Fibonacci retracement ratio to determine the end and non-existence of ZC. I take 70%. Generally, it is 61.8% and 100%.

The location is $26,705.

From the perspective of pressure, we open a position at 28850-29350 USD for short selling, which is a pressure range. It is not a fixed point. Stop loss 30226

Or change the right shoulder position to $30,400 and stop loss to 31,850. This requires continuous evolution of the market.

In terms of logarithmic coordinates, it has now fallen below the trend line connecting the 19XXX-24XXX lows. The 15XXX trend line has not yet fallen below $27,606, and the above position is a logarithmic coordinate.

I will not go into details about other indicators such as MACD divergence, etc.

The above is just my personal opinion, for reference only and not as a basis for opening a position! (Correction is welcome)