I woke up today to see Bitcoin nearing the $100,000 mark, but it seems no one in the major groups is shouting 'bull run' anymore; it looks like everyone has been worn down by the market. This time, Bitcoin once again challenges the $100,000 mark. Can the long-awaited altcoin season finally arrive? Let's chat about it today.
In the crypto market, many investors are anxiously waiting for a familiar rhythm, where after a Bitcoin surge, funds flow into altcoins, igniting a comprehensive rise in the 'altcoin season.'
However, months have passed in 2025, Bitcoin continues to hit new highs, but altcoins have yet to experience a collective explosion. Why is this round of altcoin season arriving so late?
There are only three opportunities to turn your life around; can you seize them? — The wealth code of the Kondratiev wave
In the past few days, I've seen many articles about the Kondratiev wave, which I found quite touching. I just finished dinner and want to jot down some of my understandings.
I know that the Kondratiev wave originates from a famous saying by Mr. Zhou Jintao, the chief economist of CITIC Securities: 'In life, wealth relies on the Kondratiev wave.' He said that the accumulation of wealth for everyone is not due to how capable you are, but because you happen to hit the nodes of the economic cycle at the right time. Looking back at the development over more than forty years of reform and opening up, we can see that wealth accumulation has changed with industries, from international trade, real estate, and the internet to today's AI. As long as an ordinary person hits an economic operating phase, entering the middle class is not a problem.
The weekly MACD has diverged, and the space for the fifth wave peak is also not very large. If the daily chart breaks the high, it may form multiple divergence signals on both the daily and weekly charts. The overlap of small and large-scale divergences may indicate a temporary end to the bullish trend. A deep correction is needed to clean up the market, and all indicators are unfavorable for bulls!
Do not blindly chase the market, as the risk is high. Follow the trend but wait for a clear bullish signal or a pullback to the support level of 108,000-110,000 before entering. #比特币走势分析
There is a high probability of market activity from September to December!
There is a high probability of another interest rate cut in the second half of the year, it shouldn't be too bad.
The current market mechanism is like a 'tightly drawn bowstring' causing a series of structural distortions.
Internal contradictions in the United States: fiscal expansion but monetary tightening. This combination of 'policy mismatch' is not common; on one side, the Treasury is spending money to boost the economy, and the debt snowball is getting bigger, while on the other side, the Federal Reserve is suppressing inflation, leading to huge interest expenses from high rates. This is the core reason for Trump's extreme criticism of the Federal Reserve.
This situation of fiscal expansion coupled with monetary tightening is often difficult to maintain in the long term. When debt financing becomes difficult and financial markets are under pressure, the central bank may be forced to stop raising interest rates or even shift to rate cuts or debt monetization. Trump's desire to oust Powell is precisely to do this.
Last night, the Goldman Sachs team stated that a 50 basis point rate cut in September has become the baseline scenario. Today, the cryptocurrency market has basically rebounded across the board. It seems everyone has taken a 25 basis point cut for granted. If a 50 basis point cut occurs, it is expected to further boost market confidence!!!
ETF Market: Last night, the ETF funds for Bitcoin and Ethereum finally returned to a net inflow status after several days of significant outflows. Although it's not much, Bitcoin saw an inflow of 90 million, and Ethereum saw an inflow of 30 million. This is not the hundreds of millions we saw before, but the impact on market sentiment is still quite evident.
Just now, Ethereum $eth broke through 3750. As I write this, it is about to challenge 3800. Ever since institutions and consortiums set their sights on Ethereum ETFs, any pullback followed by upward spikes has been led by Ethereum. This is something everyone should adjust their views on!
Speaking of altcoins, I just took a quick look, and the Binance gainers list is basically dominated by the DEFI sector. This summer, with Ethereum leading the way, could we see a repeat of the DeFi summer of yesteryears??? Therefore, it is quite necessary to position in leading DEFI projects during pullbacks, such as $uni, $ena, etc.
Join the Dora community, where every day there's a big brother giving you motivation, and Boss is that kind of big brother! Just casually showing off a wallet balance of tens of millions, luxury watches, and collectibles!
He often randomly rewards people in the group! How amazing is that?
I call $DORA a unique and awesome project with "strong participation, quick feedback, and a vibrant community atmosphere"!!
@DORA USD1 #dora I have also received the Sunshine Distribution airdrop, sharing some benefits to spread the joy!
The Dora community is filled with talented individuals who speak beautifully, I absolutely love being a part of it!
56 ethnic groups, 56 families, the Dora community brings together family members from all corners of the world, with only one belief: to work hard to build and continue to hold on.
Caldera $ERA is a blockchain project with enormous potential, aiming to become the infrastructure accelerator for Web3.
At its core is Rollup-as-a-Service (RaaS), simplifying the process for developers to create efficient blockchains by allowing one-click deployment of dedicated Rollups. Caldera addresses the congestion issues of traditional public chains, providing independent high-performance channels for popular DApps (such as GameFi, DeFi), supporting thousands of TPS (transactions per second), and significantly reducing costs.
Its four major advantages include: 1) One-click chain creation, lowering the technical barrier; 2) High performance and low fees, providing dedicated channels; 3) Strong network effects and interoperability, supporting multi-chain connections; 4) Backed by top-tier capital (Sequoia Capital, Founders Fund, etc.) and an elite team.
The $ERA token is used for fee payments, governance voting, and staking rewards, featuring a deflationary mechanism. Caldera's business model is similar to 'selling shovels,' serving Web3 developers rather than directly competing at the application layer.
The current market price is approximately $1.23, with a 24-hour trading volume exceeding $300 million, ranked #256. In the token distribution, 30% is allocated for sales, 25% for ecosystem incentives, and 20% for the team, etc. $BNB holders can benefit from Binance airdrops. The project is in a golden lane, and as Web3 applications grow, its value may significantly increase, making it suitable for long-term holders optimistic about infrastructure investments.
Analysis of the Rapid Decline in Bitcoin's Market Capitalization Dominance!
Recently, I have been closely monitoring Bitcoin's market cap dominance, which has dropped rapidly these past few days. At the previous low of 50, in December 2024, it was essentially the peak for altcoins, indicating that while Bitcoin's market cap dominance is falling, it can be understood as capital flowing out, possibly signaling the arrival of altcoin season.
The rapid decline in Bitcoin's market capitalization dominance usually reflects some important dynamics in the cryptocurrency market. Here are some possible reasons and implications:
1. Funds flowing into altcoins - A decline in Bitcoin's market capitalization dominance usually means that funds are flowing from Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies (altcoins), especially mainstream altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), or other emerging tokens. This phenomenon typically occurs when market sentiment is high and investors have an increased risk appetite.
Innovative Leader in the Ethereum Rollup Ecosystem - Caldera
Caldera (@Calderaxyz) is a blockchain infrastructure company focused on Ethereum Layer-2 (L2) and Layer-3 (L3) Rollup solutions, dedicated to providing high-performance, customizable Rollup services for decentralized applications (dApps). Its core product, 'Caldera Chains', offers developers low-cost, high-throughput blockchain deployment solutions through the Arbitrum Nitro and Optimism Bedrock frameworks, significantly enhancing the scalability and user experience of dApps.
Recent updates from Caldera's official channels reveal that the company has supported several well-known projects, such as ApeChain, RARI Chain, and Dogelon Mars's Rufus L2 chain. These chains optimize performance and economic models in specific scenarios through customized rules (such as Rufus's ELON token burn mechanism). Additionally, Caldera collaborates with platforms like Binance, #ERA the token is set to launch on Binance TR on July 17, 2025, accompanied by an airdrop event, further expanding its market influence. Caldera also announced the implementation of hybrid ZK Rollup through RISC Zero's Kailua technology, reducing confirmation time from 7 days to 1 hour, significantly improving transaction efficiency.
This wave of eagles #egl1 has already doubled up, the next step is to go to Binance contracts, then spot trading. Follow the points where you can make money, leave a comment, and then I'll share some benefits with everyone🧧! $EGL1
crypto-后山人
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Bullish
{alpha}(560xf4b385849f2e817e92bffbfb9aeb48f950ff4444) Continue to increase positions in the eagle!!! Don't be cowardly; a drop is an opportunity!
Today is Crazy Thursday, sending out some benefits to everyone.
I believe everyone has clearly felt that since institutions entered the market, the logic of operation in the cryptocurrency market has completely changed. In the past, as long as the market was in a FOMO mood, whoever had the hottest topics and concepts would rally fiercely; after all, everyone was just air. Projects with consensus and capable of stirring people's emotions could easily become hundredfold or thousandfold coins when their market capitalization was small.
But now it has completely changed. Institutions almost only buy BTC and ETH, and at most a bit of SOL; they don't even glance at other projects.
Since mid-2022, the driving force behind the Bitcoin bull market has been driven by ETF expectations, ETF funds, “MicroStrategy” funds, and listed company treasury funds, which have collectively net purchased over 1 million. There are still no signs of stopping, and the chips are quite solid. The circulating chips in the market are decreasing, so the price remains strong.
Now it's Ethereum's turn. ETF funds and listed company treasury funds have begun to buy ETH in large amounts, even vying to become the “MicroStrategy” of Ethereum. The continuous buying of ETH by listed companies has led to a price increase, which drives the appreciation of listed company assets, which in turn leads to continued buying of ETH, creating a “flywheel effect.” This trend will not end in the short term.
Trump has once again imposed tariffs on the EU, Canada, and other countries. The Federal Reserve is not cutting interest rates, and the ancient whale holding 80,000 BTC is selling, but these negative factors cannot shake the market. Because the market has entered a trend driven by capital, it has its own rhythm. Unless the U.S. economy experiences a recession leading to a significant decline in the U.S. stock market, it could shake these traditional financial institutions and large holders.
Although the “flywheel effect” feels a bit like “the left foot stepping on the right foot” in its rise, there is still participation possible before the wind dissipates. Institutions with large capital volumes are not afraid. What do we have to fear? Since institutions have created the “flywheel effect” for Ethereum, which will not end in the short term, we can focus on opportunities within the Ethereum ecosystem, such as the largest DEX protocol #uni; the largest lending protocol #aave; Layer 2 public chains #arb, #op; domain system #ens; the largest staking protocol #ldo; the largest re-staking protocol #eigen, etc. We can pay more attention to whichever catches our eye, and as for who rises the most, it depends on the market manipulators.
Continuous construction #EGL1, In the morning, I live-streamed on Binance where a foreigner bought it, and I even had him send a few red envelopes in the live broadcast, LOL, I was able to communicate for half an hour using my broken English, I really made myself laugh 😂😂😂 #EGL1
It must be said that the current structure of the cryptocurrency market has gradually become productized and financialized!
In fact, in the last cycle, various infrastructures in the cryptocurrency industry were already "relatively complete".
In this cycle, VC firms rushed into the primary market of the cryptocurrency sector, repeating many homogeneous projects, focusing on infrastructure projects, or merely optimizing the experience. After high-priced listings, there has been a continuous wave of sell-offs for cashing out, the retail investors (often referred to as '韭菜') have become insufficient, leading to a continued downward trend in altcoins, and VC firms have even been sheared by project parties.
The altcoin sector continues to decline, and the previous logic of cryptocurrency investment is completely unworkable. Since the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and the explosion of meme markets, the cryptocurrency industry has moved towards productization and financialization.
The large-scale ecological technological development of the cryptocurrency market takes time. For example, AI took decades to land on a large scale, new energy only began to be widely popularized in the last ten years, and cloud computing has also been in development for many years. The easiest to land in the cryptocurrency space is definitely financial-related projects. For instance, SOL has captured the speculative nature of users, binding itself to casinos, incubating a batch of casino tools (such as jup, ray, pump, jto, etc.), and establishing its own moat; Bitcoin ETFs have bridged traditional finance, consolidating its identity as a major asset class, along with related financing, staking, stock operations, etc.; payment related to stablecoins, etc.; the likely next big trend is the prosperity of Ethereum's RWA assets, although it probably also requires a long time.
In the future, products and ecosystems in the cryptocurrency space must be useful to have value.
With leading assets like BTC, ETH, and SOL at the core; seeking swing trading opportunities for "gold shovel" tool tokens, such as jup, ray, uni, hype, jto, etc.; focusing on tokens with product moats, such as aave, link, ondo, etc. As for the homogenous new and old infrastructures that VC investments target, such as public chains, L2s, wallets, DeFi, etc., it is advisable to be cautious, as they are likely to continue to decline.
For a long time to come, the money-making opportunities in the cryptocurrency market will be "hell-level". Just hold on to those few projects that have products and ecosystems, enter the market during each major drop, withdraw after a rebound, only take a sip from the vast waters, and do not look left or right, or you will end up with nothing.
Thank you, Newton @MagicNewton, and @KaitoAI. You may not even know how terrifying the revenge spending of ordinary people can be.
Just now, I bought a cup of yogurt, threw the lid away without licking it, that’s how extravagant I am! Eating now is always three meals instead of one, it’s not me showing off. Have you heard of Mi Xue Bing Cheng? I’ve been there.