In the past few days, I've seen many articles about the Kondratiev wave, which I found quite touching. I just finished dinner and want to jot down some of my understandings.

I know that the Kondratiev wave originates from a famous saying by Mr. Zhou Jintao, the chief economist of CITIC Securities: 'In life, wealth relies on the Kondratiev wave.'
He said that the accumulation of wealth for everyone is not due to how capable you are, but because you happen to hit the nodes of the economic cycle at the right time.
Looking back at the development over more than forty years of reform and opening up, we can see that wealth accumulation has changed with industries, from international trade, real estate, and the internet to today's AI. As long as an ordinary person hits an economic operating phase, entering the middle class is not a problem.

History never repeats itself, but the laws of wealth transfer always follow the same rhyme. Why does industry rotation occur? Because wealth trajectories can be traced, and this trajectory is known as the Kondratiev wave.

The founder of the Kondratiev wave is the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratiev. He analyzed 200 years of economic data and discovered a strange pattern: the world economy experiences a cycle of 'recovery - prosperity - recession - depression' every 50-60 years, just as precisely as the change of seasons.

Prosperity: New technologies trigger various innovations, credit scales increase, the economy develops rapidly, factories are built in large numbers, job opportunities increase, and incomes continue to rise. This phase lasts about 20 years.
Recession: After a period of economic prosperity, the continuous increase in credit scales leads to debt servicing costs exceeding income, terminating the prosperity, and the economy begins to decline. This phase lasts about 10 years.
Depression: The economy continues to decline, asset prices fall, credit scales decrease, spending reduces, incomes decrease, and the economy severely contracts. This phase lasts about 10 years.
Recovery: Through measures such as cutting spending, debt restructuring, wealth redistribution, and central bank currency issuance, the economy is continuously stimulated and begins to gradually recover, approaching a new peak and economic prosperity. This phase lasts about 10 years. In each Kondratiev wave, there are only three crucial windows that can change one's fate: the period of technological explosion, the period of asset inflation, and the period of bubble burst. If an ordinary person can seize one of these opportunities in their lifetime, it is enough to cross social classes.

Opportunities always favor those who are prepared. In the upcoming fifth Kondratiev wave, how can we seize the opportunities for wealth?

Here is a practical survival guide:
1. See the trend clearly and act accordingly. Each Kondratiev wave has its unique economic characteristics and investment opportunities. Understanding the cyclical laws and identifying the lows and highs of economic fluctuations is the first step to seizing opportunities. For example, during economic lows, dare to invest in reverse; during peaks, exit in a timely manner to lock in profits. Acting in accordance with the trend allows one to find certainty amid volatility.

2. Master the core technologies of the era. Technological innovation is the core driving force of the Kondratiev wave. In the fifth wave, breakthroughs in fields such as artificial intelligence, new energy, and life sciences will become key to wealth growth. Choosing a suitable technological direction, continuously learning, and deeply engaging in it will allow one to gain an advantage in future competition. Mastering core technology is not only a source of wealth but also the way to survive in the future.

3. Optimize asset allocation and reduce risk. The fluctuations of economic cycles are inevitable, but through scientific asset allocation, risks can be effectively reduced and returns increased. Adjusting the investment portfolio rationally in different stages of the cycle, such as increasing risk assets during lows and defensive assets during peaks, is crucial. Diversifying investments and dynamically adjusting is the best strategy to cope with uncertainty.

4. Maintain flexibility and adaptability. The changes in the Kondratiev wave are rapid and complex; sticking to a single strategy will only lead to missed opportunities. Maintaining an open mindset and adjusting strategies at any time is key to responding to changes. Whether in investment, entrepreneurship, or financial management, one needs to respond flexibly according to changes in the environment in order to find certainty amid uncertainty.

The Kondratiev wave is both a challenge and an opportunity. Understanding cyclical laws, mastering core technologies, optimizing asset allocation, and maintaining flexibility are key to seizing the next wealth opportunity. Action is the best preparation; seize the trend and embrace change, and you will stand firm in the future tide.

In 2025, we will stand at the end of the old cycle and the beginning of the new cycle. Only by understanding the trend, respecting risks, and maintaining resilience can we become the winners of 'destiny' and 'fortune' in the sixth Kondratiev wave.