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The real altcoin bull market is about to begin

From the overall BTC market, this decline is caused by the reduction of holdings by players who made a lot of profits some time ago, and the other is that there should be institutional pressure to prevent the subsequent purchase price of BTC from being too high, after all, BTC has reached a six-digit price.

The current market is that funds are starting to flow out of Bitcoin, which is still the same as the previous bull market. After Bitcoin rose, funds flowed to altcoins, and BTC went sideways to create a stable situation for altcoins. When the market value of altcoins reached a certain height, the first stage of the bull market ended. After two or three months of adjustment, the second stage of the bull market began.
The development model of the bull market has not changed, the only change is that the hot spots are different.

In addition, don't doubt or worry too much. The decline of altcoins in the past two days is too common in the bull market, especially in the early stage of the bull market. No matter whether it has doubled or tripled before, before the altcoin market starts, it must return to the original position, and now is the time.

The virtual currency market is getting bigger and bigger, and the amount of funds it brings is also huge. In this bull market, the slightly well-known altcoins should be able to reach at least 1 billion, or even tens of billions.

In short, in short,
I think the adjustment should be over,
even if it is not over, it is close to the end.

Now it's time to see who is lucky enough to buy the 100-fold coins in the next stage.
$BTC

If the bottom is not reached, I will pee upside down.

I have been too busy these two days and have not had time to write a bragging analysis. Seeing the crypto market represented by BTC wailing, and various jokes starting to appear on various social media, I feel that if the bottom is not reached, I will really pee upside down.

Since it fell below the 120-day moving average again on June 18, I felt that the market trend was not normal. Then it fell below the 180-day moving average again on June 24. I thought it should have bottomed out. After all, the half-year line is a key indicator point that everyone follows. However, it began to fall again after a few days of rebound.
At that time, one of my mental journeys was that I still believed that this was still a bull market, and my position was very firm. I just didn't know which position was the bottom.
It was not until July 4 that BTC's single-day decline reached 6%, and BTC also fell below the position on May 1, and various copycats fell even more miserably. There were signs of a big bear in the bull market. I dared to bet and thought it was going to bottom out. . . .

The rebound is not the bottom, and the bottom does not rebound until the players are tortured crazy. . . . A month ago, I saw an analysis article saying that Wall Street or some institution opened a lot of BTC short orders to hedge. The comments below were all that Wall Street had to see the violent pull of the currency circle and pull them out. The result is obvious. The strength of the currency circle's little Karami is still far from the vision and strength of the Wall Street financial giants.

Looking back at this round of 71999-53485 market, it is no longer an adjustment but a sharp drop. What is the reason?
My previous guess was that it was to deleverage and lay a good foundation for the subsequent pull. I feel that it is only partially correct. . . From BTC falling below 120 days, falling to 180 days, rebounding and then falling again, and then falling below the low before 5.1, all technical indicators have failed. He is going to kill them all.

Winter has come and gone, and spring is coming.
Still not all-in?
$BTC $NOT

1.BTC has formed a top divergence at the 4-hour level and the daily level. This is a bearish pattern. It is almost able to stand firm and break through this high point, just like the bullish pattern of "air refueling" in my previous article.
Unfortunately, I was still careless. Because of the current bull market, I ignored these directly and thought it was normal for the rise to overwhelm the fall. Of course, I did not use high contract leverage, which was the main reason for ignoring the bearish factors. In fact, this is the real bull market, with rapid rises and falls, and the market is extremely active.

In the early morning, without any special bad news, BTC shook downward, and the entire cryptocurrency market instantly fell, which was in line with the old saying, "In the morning, the price did not change, and the position was gone."

Therefore, the difficulty of contract leverage is too high. If you want to make money in spot trading, you may need ten brushes. If you play contract leverage, you need at least 1,000 brushes, and you can only guarantee that you will not blow up your position and lose less money. The feeling of being powerless when seeing the opposite market is really tormenting.

You can see why I am determined not to do contracts by looking at my ID and profile.

2. Arthur Hayes, the boss of BitMEX, has published another article. He analyzed the monetary policy of the global central bank's interest rate cuts and started in advance. He concluded that if you don't add positions now, when will you go all in on BTC and altcoins? BTC is no longer affordable for ordinary people, and of course it is the only one I think you can go all in on with a loan. Those so-called value coins and institutional coins with high valuations and low circulation are now smart, so let the institutions play with them. From the current situation, MEME coins may be the trend-setter leading this bull market. One principle that must be adhered to when playing this is to buy new instead of old. NOT should be the best choice. I don't know what's going on with BOME. The market seems to have been trading sideways, and it may be that it is still a little short of a small spark for its outbreak. Others like BNB SOL are even more stable. If you want to balance risk and return, TON is also very suitable.

Last but not least, don’t short in a bull market
$BTC $BNB $NOT
#TopCoinsJune2024 #山寨季何时到来？

$BTC BTC has been adjusted from March 14 to May 1 until now. Although it has not broken the previous high, no one will think that BTC has no bull market.

Now BTC is standing firmly above 70,000. I don’t know if you have paid attention to a pattern. The MACD at the daily level has a dead cross and then a golden cross to form a "refueling in the air" pattern. It is said that this pattern is a very cool bullish pattern.
But now I don’t pay much attention to this type, because the bottom of the 120-day moving average is determined, and there will be no major adjustments in the future. It is either rising or sideways, and there is nothing special to analyze.
I said in my previous article that I think it is not a big problem even if I take out a loan to buy BTC, although I don’t recommend taking out a real loan.

With BTC stabilizing the overall situation, other currencies can be pulled up with confidence. The NOT mentioned at 0.006 before was pulled up under such conditions. And I think the market of NOT is still not over. Because once the market is confirmed, it is not easy to turn. It seems that the transaction volume of NOT in the past few days is more than that of BTC and ETH. It pulled back to 0.02 two days ago, and has been trading sideways at this position recently, which is also a very strong pattern.

But I can't say exactly how high it will rise, but there is a time point, which is June 16. This is the deadline for transferring the mined coins. The official said that if you don't claim them, they will be destroyed directly. It is not known how many people have not claimed the coins yet, but this is definitely a super big positive. With 35 million users, there should be a lot of messy small accounts, plus those blocked by telegram, the total amount should be quite a lot. Let's wait.

NOT's father TON has also been constantly receiving good news recently. I think it is as stable as BNB SOL.
$SOL $NOT
#TopCoinsJune2024

Today, let's focus on NOT and TON.

Even if you don't know anything, you can tell that they are definitely related by looking at the codes of the last two coins. (The codes are opposite)
A few days ago, I called for people to focus on NOT. In the short term, NOT should at least touch the position of the immortal.

Basic analysis of the market:
BTC is now back below 70,000, which is indeed in line with the analysis and judgment of BitMEX boss Xiaohei. BTC will fluctuate between 60,000 and 70,000 from May to August. He said so, so we believe it.

In December last year, I published a popular article titled "Is ETH's status really unshakable?", which analyzed the problems of ETH in detail. At that time, BTC was 42,000, ETH was 2,300, and SOL was more than 70.
No one thinks Ethereum is bad, but I am not optimistic about the increase of ETH in this round and in the future bull market.
And I think SOL, which has an obvious competitive relationship with ETH, is very good. Now I will add TON.

TON has more than 900 million global Telegram users. Its boss Pavel Durov is as good as Facebook's boss Zuckerberg in every aspect, whether in appearance or genius. His story is even more legendary, you can learn more about it. So don't worry about the big background.

Some people doubted before that the TON ecosystem is shit, so why can it be in the top 20 in terms of market value. This can indeed reflect from another perspective that TON is really awesome.

As the first pioneering project in the TON chain ecosystem, do you think NOT will perform badly?
A few days ago, more than 500,000 NOT holders donated more than 1 billion NOT coins to Telegram's boss Durov. Durov promised to hold it to 680 million US dollars and increase the expenditure of Telegram servers to support operations and continue to provide services to users.

Isn't this a clear card?

The boss is really handsome
$BTC $NOT

#$NOT # I think the outbreak season of altcoins is coming.

I have been bearish since March 14th, just waiting for the 120-day moving average position. Finally, I waited for it on May 1st. Unfortunately, I was scared. Although I didn't dare to bearish the market at that time, I didn't dare to take action.
Just like October 2, 2020, I watched it fall to the 120-day moving average position, but I waited for the rebound to be confirmed before taking action. It's not a good thing to be too timid. In a bull market, you should liberate your mind and imagine boldly. Tsinghua University and Peking University are really not as brave as courage.

The arrival of the altcoin season is just like my previous firm judgment that the market will be adjusted, but it's the other way around.

The most important thing about investment is investment expectations and mentality.
BTC has confirmed the bottom, and the market has once again given the 120-day moving average a bright opportunity. The so-called bull-bear boundary of the 120-day moving average is still well-deserved. First of all, there is no doubt that the general trend is a bull market. Now the bottom has been determined and confirmed. Everyone has basically no concerns, and most of the altcoins have been cut in half from their highs, so now they are rushing forward with their eyes closed.

The current external environment has changed, and ETH's ETF has been approved. It also has a huge impact on the short-term market. The meme coins of the Ethereum series have become popular again. These are all small sparks in the bull market.

And those so-called value tokens are stupid coins, which means those tokens with high valuations and low circulation. Institutions unlock them every month, the prices remain unchanged, and the market value soars. They can treat us as leeks but not people as idiots.

In this round of altcoin market, everyone should focus on the coins that are mostly in circulation. Meme coins may be a good choice. And I think it's better to buy new than old. If you have been hyped in the bull market before, try not to touch it again.

NOT, which is still the latest hot spot, should be considered a good choice, and it is also the first TON chain to go out of the circle, which is worth paying attention to. I was optimistic about BOME before, but now I feel awkward, it's hard to say. Do you have any good memes for exchanges to recommend? The memes on the chain are very risky, 99.9% will go to zero, I don’t dare.

Once again, Catizen on TON is a pyramid scheme.
Doge in the BTC era,
Shib and Pepe in the ETH ecosystem,
BOME Wif in the SOL ecosystem,

What is on the TON chain——NOT CATI
Hahaha

$BTC $NOT

$BTC I am a long-term BTC bull. Why do I still think that BTC should continue to adjust downward even though it has rebounded to 67,000?

BTC has rebounded from 59,000 and has broken through the 10, 20, and 60-day moving averages, stood firm on the 12-hour middle track, touched the daily middle track, and formed a cross star at the bottom of the three-day candlestick chart. In any case, from all indicators, it is a bullish pattern. Now it is definitely not worth shorting. Is it really the same as at the end of January, when it would never fall to the 120-day moving average of 38,000, and now it would never fall to 55,000?

The market of altcoins is very subtle at present. If you bought it after the short position was halved, you have had a good time these days, with many rebounds, and there is still a long way to go from the high point. I don’t know how long it will take for those who took over at high positions to get out of the trap. There are also many hot coins that are still falling. The bull market of the copycat is the same as what I said before. If the market does not have a particularly clear direction, that is, BTC directly falls to the right position or BTC trades sideways for a long time to break through the previous high position, then the bull market of the copycat is still far away.

In summary, although all indicators of BTC are bullish, I still only look at the rebound.

And I still stick to my point of view, that is, BTC must fall to a key position, the 120-day moving average or the 180-day moving average, which is the most direct for the overall upward development. But if it does not fall to the position, BTC will fluctuate up and down like this, and it is not known when it will trade sideways. Will it really trade sideways until the third quarter?

Of course, the fluctuation of BTC prices always has its own direction, which is not subject to people's will, and there is no good or bad direction. It depends on who guesses right.
$BTC

$BTC Yesterday, BTC finally fell below 60,000, but it went up again after a short while, forming a 4-hour bottom divergence. Logically, there should be a 2-3 day rebound back to the 66,000-60,000 range. Now it is almost 64,000. If the rebound strength is very high, the price may rebound higher, but I think the probability is not very high.

Then let's talk about the bottom problem. There is a saying that the longer the horizontal line is, the higher the vertical line is. This vertical line can go up or down, and it should be downward at present.

BTC has been above 60,000 for more than a month since March 14th, and it has not fallen completely and rebounded smoothly.
One of my judgments is that the more horizontal it is, the deeper it may fall. Originally, I estimated that it would fall to the 120-day moving average of about 55,000, so the decline from the high point would be 25%. If it takes more than ten or twenty days to adjust, such a decline is also appropriate. But now it is different.

So now I have to change my blind prediction a little bit. If it falls to 55,000 and can go up quickly, and the volume is large when it bottoms out again for the second time, then this bottom may be very solid. If not, it is very likely to fall to 50,000, near the 180-day moving average. Emotionally, many people now understand that the trend needs to be adjusted, and they plan to increase their positions around 55,000. This year's dog dealers are so dog-like, will it really make it easy for players to open long positions at this position?

So I am more and more inclined to the 180-day moving average of 50,000. Let's wait and see.

What do you think?

$BTC

When will BTC fall below 60,000, when will it fall to the right position, and where will it fall to be the most appropriate?

In the early morning of April 13, BTC's big shorts took advantage of the impact of the war and directly smashed BTC below the 60-day moving average. Yesterday, the first batch of BTC ETFs in Hong Kong passed, which can be regarded as adding fuel to this bull market. Of course, adjustments should be made. If it falls to the right position, the K-line pattern will be repaired, and the next wave of bulls will be more stable.

The day before yesterday, the market fell to 60,660, which may give people a feeling that BTC will never fall below 60,000. I don't know if you have heard a saying that resistance levels will be broken if they are attacked for a long time, and support levels will be lost if they are defended for a long time. At this state, no one thinks that it will not fall below 60,000.
The 120-day moving average position of 55,000 must be visited. But there is another saying recently that the current form of BTC is similar to that in May 2021. Will this price continue to go down directly? ? ?

It has been exactly half a year since the bull market officially started in October last year. Then I pointed out the 180-day moving average and found that it will reach 50,000 in a few days. Will it fall to 50,000?

$BTC

This is just luck. I accidentally saw my analysis and clicked on the analysis chart. After careful consideration, I felt that I had to play it safe, so I ran away first.
Oh, I was right to run. Now all the coins are discounted.

I am very happy to see that someone has kept their income and principal through my analysis
$BTC $BTC

BTC's decline came as expected, just falling to 60,600, breaking the last low, but the adjustment is still continuing.

I started to be bearish on March 14, and published the first analysis and forecast of this wave of adjustments on March 25. In the middle, I sent out bearish short messages at high points many times. At that time, the cottage was basically still at a high level, but BTC always fluctuated sideways at a high level, and almost tricked me into surrendering, but in the end BTC still had to make a healthy adjustment.

Now the goal is very clear. The first goal is to fall below 60,000, and the second goal is to fall to the 120-day bull-bear dividing line of about 55,000, which is very standard. If you want to step down hard, it is the big support of 52,000. I have said these points many times.

Friends who pay attention to my short messages and have seriously thought about it, even if they are bearish with full positions, at least they will have some expectations in their hearts. Normally, at least half of the bullets are ready to be fired at any time. Those high-quality coins with discounts are right in front of us

First of all, it is clear that this is a healthy adjustment. The bull market is still there. Don't think that the bull market is gone and the bear market is coming. The next wave of BTC will start at at least 90,000. Then, what are the altcoins that have the opportunity to become the leading ones in the next round? From my perspective as a short seller this month, I have thought of many of them. I plan to organize and post them. Let's discuss and see which ones are more reasonable, and then wait to verify the accuracy. Keep paying attention.
$BTC $ETH $SOL

Let me tell you about a big mistake I made. SAGA went online a few days ago. I judged that with such a large scale of pledge, it should be similar to the previous projects, and it would be pulled up after going online, so I bought some just a few minutes after it went online. It was really a speculation, because I thought BTC would not fall sharply in the short term. After all, there was the expectation of Hong Kong ETF, but it would inevitably fall, so I planned to play a time difference.
However, this Dogecoin is really a dog. It just didn't pull up when BTC had an expected callback. It doesn't matter if it doesn't pull up. Just take it when you see the profit and run away. Unfortunately, I also made a mistake that most people often make. I knew I should run away but I had to wait. And my cost price was not high, but it developed into self-paralysis.
This is the weakness of human nature. Even if you are always vigilant in your heart, you can't avoid omissions. I was blown up in my early years because of this, and it is also the reason why I dare not leverage now, and it is also the reason why most people play leveraged contracts and blow up.

High-frequency leverage is extremely risky, especially when playing with copycat contracts. If you need two brushes to play with spot, you need two hundred brushes to play with contracts. You must be cautious.
$SAGA $BTC

The BTC trend has completely gone bad, and it is really going to fall towards my initial idea, but there will be a rebound next, but it will still fall in the end.

The idea of ​​falling is still the short message I wrote in the previous few articles. $BTC

Since March 14, BTC has fallen below the 12-hour middle track. At that time, I was firmly bearish. Indeed, BTC has adjusted, but it did not fall according to the usual routine, which is what I have always said, falling below 60,000, 55,000, and the lowest 52,000. During this period, BTC was strongly sideways, and many positions could have directly fallen below the support, but they did not. If it does not fall when it should, there must be something wrong. Is it really going to trade time for space and not fall? I, a big bear for more than 20 days, want to surrender. $BTC

My opinion remains unchanged. BTC is still rebounding even though it has rebounded to 69,700.

Now the 5, 10, 20, and 30-day moving averages are sticking together. A big market should be happening. BTC is currently at a high level. I don’t think BTC can continue to break through the previous high. There is another piece of news that everyone should know. The non-agricultural data exceeded expectations, and the probability of the Fed’s interest rate cut decreased. This reaction did not even fall back in the US stock market. There must be something fishy. Wait until the opening of next week to see. Anyway, I still stick to my point of view. If BTC falls below 60,000, it must fall to a suitable daily moving average, 60 days, 120 days, or in between. BTC is normally around 55,000, and the limit is 52,000.
$BTC

BTC has just rebounded and reached the 20-day moving average of 67500. This position is very critical. It has been almost 20 days since March 14th. It has now completely returned to the average price, which is interesting.

Of course, I still maintain my attitude. The adjustment is not completely over yet. It is only halfway through. I will continue to wait and see when the 60,000 level can be broken. After falling below 60,000, where will it go? This position fascinates me and I am looking forward to it.

My personal opinion is that it should not be taken as investment advice. Those who are short sellers should not comfort themselves just because they read my words and act like an ostrich burying their head in the sand. The risk of contract leverage is extremely high. It is difficult to survive in this market with high multiples and high-frequency leverage. Pay attention to stop-profit and stop-loss.
$BTC