$BTC Yesterday, BTC finally fell below 60,000, but it went up again after a short while, forming a 4-hour bottom divergence. Logically, there should be a 2-3 day rebound back to the 66,000-60,000 range. Now it is almost 64,000. If the rebound strength is very high, the price may rebound higher, but I think the probability is not very high.
Then let's talk about the bottom problem. There is a saying that the longer the horizontal line is, the higher the vertical line is. This vertical line can go up or down, and it should be downward at present.
BTC has been above 60,000 for more than a month since March 14th, and it has not fallen completely and rebounded smoothly.
One of my judgments is that the more horizontal it is, the deeper it may fall. Originally, I estimated that it would fall to the 120-day moving average of about 55,000, so the decline from the high point would be 25%. If it takes more than ten or twenty days to adjust, such a decline is also appropriate. But now it is different.
So now I have to change my blind prediction a little bit. If it falls to 55,000 and can go up quickly, and the volume is large when it bottoms out again for the second time, then this bottom may be very solid. If not, it is very likely to fall to 50,000, near the 180-day moving average. Emotionally, many people now understand that the trend needs to be adjusted, and they plan to increase their positions around 55,000. This year's dog dealers are so dog-like, will it really make it easy for players to open long positions at this position?
So I am more and more inclined to the 180-day moving average of 50,000. Let's wait and see.
What do you think?
