Having enjoyed the good days of the bull market for so long, people have forgotten the cruelty and ruthlessness of the cryptocurrency market itself.
(The first article: What is to come will come)
Since October 16, 2023, BTC broke through the 120-day bull-bear dividing line, and then fell back and stabilized on October 18 until now. In the past six months, BTC has not had a serious correction at all. The only slightly deeper correction was the ETF market in early January, but it did not fall to the 120-day moving average.
This time it's time.
In the early morning of April 14, it fell below the previous low point to 60660. It should have fallen too much and too fast. It may also have been supported by favorable factors. BTC rebounded quickly and currently reached 66867, breaking through the 60-day moving average. Now it has fallen again. I originally thought that it started to fall on April 15, because this day was the day when the Hong Kong BTC ETF was officially approved. Then the favorable factors were exhausted and then it started to fall.
Let me first talk about my basic point of view. The bull market is still going on. Don’t shout that the bull market is gone and the bear market is coming out as soon as the market drops. This is too unprincipled. The war and the like have little to do with the general direction of BTC. The only thing that has something to do with it is the Fed’s expectation of a rate cut. For a detailed analysis, please see my previous article. And the rate cut will definitely happen, it’s just sooner or later. As long as this expectation exists, it is still a positive. When the rate cut really happens, it will be a huge positive.
Anyway, my conclusion is that the bull market is still going on, and the next wave of BTC must at least cover the cost price of mining, which is about 90,000.
Then based on this, I would like to share my ideas and plans.
When BTC falls to the 120-day moving average, which is currently around 55,000, it is not impossible that it will fall even more sharply to the 180-day semi-annual line, which is 50,000. At that time, all kinds of cottages will not only be cut in half, but also cut to the ankle. At this time, close your eyes and go all in.
In my experience, the next wave is when the wealth of most players will increase the fastest. The past six months have only boosted the sentiment of the cryptocurrency circle, and the next round will be a period of mass wealth creation. BTC is a propaganda tool, and if you want to make money, you still have to rely on various copycats.
Looking back at the wealth creation in 2017-2021, ICO in 2017, DeFi, Doge, and Shib in 2021 were all very popular, and the wealth creation directly caused the national team to suppress it. The same grand occasion will continue to happen in 2024 and 2025.
