Mate老陈
🧣博:Mate老陈，公众号：Mate加密老陈，一起把握这轮最疯狂的牛市！
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Exhausted from complaining about Ethereum, can’t drive the altcoin season!
This week, significant volatility is expected. On one hand, BTC is facing slight pullbacks against the resistance of $98,000 to $100,000. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is at 2 AM on May 8, and the market expects the rate to remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%. This could lead BTC to test the daily support advantage at $92,000, which is a key support level worth paying attention to.
If this daily pullback to $92,000 can hold at closing, then the bullish advantage on the daily chart will not be broken, and there will still be a chance for a second attempt at resistance.
If it can't hold, then it's $88,000.
Additionally, I want to complain about Ethereum. Ethereum's mainnet upgrade is officially at 6 PM tomorrow, but does this candlestick look like it’s preparing for an upgrade? I’m exhausted from complaining.
If this daily pullback to $92,000 can hold at closing, then the bullish advantage on the daily chart will not be broken, and there will still be a chance for a second attempt at resistance.
If it can't hold, then it's $88,000.
Additionally, I want to complain about Ethereum. Ethereum's mainnet upgrade is officially at 6 PM tomorrow, but does this candlestick look like it’s preparing for an upgrade? I’m exhausted from complaining.
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This week's rate-setting meeting is Powell's performance moment; how does the market view it?
1. The most important economic data from last week:
1) Although GDP experienced negative growth in the first quarter, excluding the factors of import grabbing, the results indicate that U.S. consumer growth is not weak, dispelling market fears of a recession.
2) The non-farm payroll data in April is similar; the new jobs added exceeded expectations, and aside from the increase in transport and logistics personnel due to tariff grabbing, the new employment was also above expectations.
3) More importantly, last week marked the earnings season for several major tech companies, particularly Microsoft's, Meta's, and Google's strong earnings reports. The growth rate of capital expenditure is still being maintained, alleviating market concerns about weakening earnings. At least in the short term, this has refuted recession worries, although we cannot say we are completely at ease. After all, April is just the first month with a 10% baseline tax rate and tariffs on some industries coming into effect, and we need to observe the subsequent impacts over time.
1) Although GDP experienced negative growth in the first quarter, excluding the factors of import grabbing, the results indicate that U.S. consumer growth is not weak, dispelling market fears of a recession.
2) The non-farm payroll data in April is similar; the new jobs added exceeded expectations, and aside from the increase in transport and logistics personnel due to tariff grabbing, the new employment was also above expectations.
3) More importantly, last week marked the earnings season for several major tech companies, particularly Microsoft's, Meta's, and Google's strong earnings reports. The growth rate of capital expenditure is still being maintained, alleviating market concerns about weakening earnings. At least in the short term, this has refuted recession worries, although we cannot say we are completely at ease. After all, April is just the first month with a 10% baseline tax rate and tariffs on some industries coming into effect, and we need to observe the subsequent impacts over time.
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The market logic is quietly changing, are we on the brink of a major market shift?
Recently, the market trends have become increasingly bizarre. The US stock market has surged, and one would expect the dollar to strengthen too, but it hasn't moved, and US Treasury bonds continue to decline. This phenomenon of 'going against the trend' clearly suggests a misalignment of logic. When market confidence normally recovers, the dollar should strengthen, but now it is doing the opposite. Asian currencies have collectively surged in recent days; this is not a coincidence, but rather capital is accelerating its exit from the US to other markets. It’s not a wait-and-see approach; it’s a retreat.
Previously, I mentioned 'Dollar Tide 2.0'—large funds had already made their layouts during the interest rate hike cycle. Many people missed out on this round of Bitcoin’s rise because their thinking was too habitual: they believed that interest rate hikes should cause declines and only rate cuts would lead to increases. The market evolves in cycles, but the paths are often different; replicating past experiences often leads to losses.
Now, the interlinked relationship between the dollar, US stocks, and US Treasury bonds has completely broken down. The dollar no longer moves in sync with US stocks; instead, it is retail investors propping up the market while institutions are gradually reducing their positions. Goldman Sachs' research report clearly points out that this surge in US stocks is driven by retail investors 'buying more as prices rise,' while institutions are slowly exiting.
Many people say that funds are all going into gold for safety, but gold is also showing clear signs of peaking, and the shorts have been largely cleaned out. Traditional safe-haven assets like the yen and euro are also weak, and capital is starting to speculate on some non-mainstream currencies, akin to the way 'altcoins' are traded in the crypto space—indicating that mainstream assets are no longer safe.
What is the essence? The market is seeking an escape route outside the dollar system, even if it means taking on higher risks. Buffett's statement about not selling Japanese trading companies for the next 30 years is essentially a judgment on the long-term demand for safe havens.
What does this have to do with cryptocurrencies? If the credibility of the dollar continues to collapse, the next wave of capital searching for an exit is likely to flow towards crypto assets. Currently, lowly positioned altcoins and commodities are potential points of explosion.
Recently, the market trends have become increasingly bizarre. The US stock market has surged, and one would expect the dollar to strengthen too, but it hasn't moved, and US Treasury bonds continue to decline. This phenomenon of 'going against the trend' clearly suggests a misalignment of logic. When market confidence normally recovers, the dollar should strengthen, but now it is doing the opposite. Asian currencies have collectively surged in recent days; this is not a coincidence, but rather capital is accelerating its exit from the US to other markets. It’s not a wait-and-see approach; it’s a retreat.
Previously, I mentioned 'Dollar Tide 2.0'—large funds had already made their layouts during the interest rate hike cycle. Many people missed out on this round of Bitcoin’s rise because their thinking was too habitual: they believed that interest rate hikes should cause declines and only rate cuts would lead to increases. The market evolves in cycles, but the paths are often different; replicating past experiences often leads to losses.
Now, the interlinked relationship between the dollar, US stocks, and US Treasury bonds has completely broken down. The dollar no longer moves in sync with US stocks; instead, it is retail investors propping up the market while institutions are gradually reducing their positions. Goldman Sachs' research report clearly points out that this surge in US stocks is driven by retail investors 'buying more as prices rise,' while institutions are slowly exiting.
Many people say that funds are all going into gold for safety, but gold is also showing clear signs of peaking, and the shorts have been largely cleaned out. Traditional safe-haven assets like the yen and euro are also weak, and capital is starting to speculate on some non-mainstream currencies, akin to the way 'altcoins' are traded in the crypto space—indicating that mainstream assets are no longer safe.
What is the essence? The market is seeking an escape route outside the dollar system, even if it means taking on higher risks. Buffett's statement about not selling Japanese trading companies for the next 30 years is essentially a judgment on the long-term demand for safe havens.
What does this have to do with cryptocurrencies? If the credibility of the dollar continues to collapse, the next wave of capital searching for an exit is likely to flow towards crypto assets. Currently, lowly positioned altcoins and commodities are potential points of explosion.
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Judgment on future market trends! How should retail trading strategies be formulated?
Let's talk about the judgment of future market trends.
First, the conclusion: Overall, it seems that the major asset is gradually exiting the left-side downtrend channel, and it may gradually require finding pullback opportunities to increase positions; the overall thinking may need to start gradually shifting to a bullish mindset.
Possible situations in the near future:
(Relatively low probability) If the major asset starts a large-scale main rising wave, it may not reach too high (accumulation of chips, adjustment time, etc., similar to a power accumulation action may still be insufficient, and the US stock market is somewhat in a state of transition, which does not support large-scale risk-on expansion).
First, the conclusion: Overall, it seems that the major asset is gradually exiting the left-side downtrend channel, and it may gradually require finding pullback opportunities to increase positions; the overall thinking may need to start gradually shifting to a bullish mindset.
Possible situations in the near future:
(Relatively low probability) If the major asset starts a large-scale main rising wave, it may not reach too high (accumulation of chips, adjustment time, etc., similar to a power accumulation action may still be insufficient, and the US stock market is somewhat in a state of transition, which does not support large-scale risk-on expansion).
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U.S. stocks plummet, Bitcoin rebounds! Is this the beginning of a reversal or is a new crisis on the way?
Bitcoin's current trend is quite awkward; while U.S. stocks are plummeting, Bitcoin is shooting up like a firecracker. Who wrote this script?
Instead, one needs to be more cautious.
The possibility of a direct one-sided surge right now is low; after all, the overall macroeconomic situation does not support this trend. If U.S. stocks drop significantly and cryptocurrencies follow, that’s understandable, but if U.S. stocks drop while cryptocurrencies rise, it often indicates a high probability of trouble ahead.
First of all, since the Bitcoin spot ETF came into play, cryptocurrencies can be understood as tech stocks on Nasdaq, but they come with leverage built-in.
Instead, one needs to be more cautious.
The possibility of a direct one-sided surge right now is low; after all, the overall macroeconomic situation does not support this trend. If U.S. stocks drop significantly and cryptocurrencies follow, that’s understandable, but if U.S. stocks drop while cryptocurrencies rise, it often indicates a high probability of trouble ahead.
First of all, since the Bitcoin spot ETF came into play, cryptocurrencies can be understood as tech stocks on Nasdaq, but they come with leverage built-in.
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The 70K-75K gold pit is coming! After being bearish for over a month, is the black swan finally here?
A wave of sharp decline after the holiday
Circuit breaker wave in Japan and South Korea stock markets
The Nikkei 225 index plummets 9%, triggering a circuit breaker, hitting a new low since October 2023; the Tokyo Stock Exchange Financial Index plunges 12%; the KOSPI index in South Korea falls over 4%, prompting the government to urgently suspend programmatic sell orders. Singapore's Nikkei 225 index futures plummet 10.2% during trading, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism.
Gold's safe-haven function fails
COMEX gold futures fall below $3,000/ounce, hitting a low of $2,978, marking a new three-week low; the gold ETF holdings drop to the lowest level since November 2023.
Epic sell-off of commodities
International crude oil plunges 11% to a four-year low, tin drops 9.3% in a single day, and copper prices record the largest single-day drop since the 2008 Lehman crisis. The Fed's hawkish stance intensifies panic. Powell clearly states there will be no intervention in the market, leading to the collapse of "Fed put option" expectations, while real interest rates surge, suppressing risk assets. The impact of US-China tariffs continues to ferment. The unexpected tariff policy from the US triggers global supply chain panic, with major US stock indices cumulatively dropping 9%-10% since the announcement. Cryptocurrencies crash across the board.
Circuit breaker wave in Japan and South Korea stock markets
The Nikkei 225 index plummets 9%, triggering a circuit breaker, hitting a new low since October 2023; the Tokyo Stock Exchange Financial Index plunges 12%; the KOSPI index in South Korea falls over 4%, prompting the government to urgently suspend programmatic sell orders. Singapore's Nikkei 225 index futures plummet 10.2% during trading, triggering the circuit breaker mechanism.
Gold's safe-haven function fails
COMEX gold futures fall below $3,000/ounce, hitting a low of $2,978, marking a new three-week low; the gold ETF holdings drop to the lowest level since November 2023.
Epic sell-off of commodities
International crude oil plunges 11% to a four-year low, tin drops 9.3% in a single day, and copper prices record the largest single-day drop since the 2008 Lehman crisis. The Fed's hawkish stance intensifies panic. Powell clearly states there will be no intervention in the market, leading to the collapse of "Fed put option" expectations, while real interest rates surge, suppressing risk assets. The impact of US-China tariffs continues to ferment. The unexpected tariff policy from the US triggers global supply chain panic, with major US stock indices cumulatively dropping 9%-10% since the announcement. Cryptocurrencies crash across the board.
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Extremely dull market, seemingly waiting for a collapse!
Extremely dull market
Short-term investors have seen their market value drop from $443 billion to $282 billion, which is one of the most important factors for the market's short-term weakness.
The Bitcoin halving in 2024 and the US approval of Bitcoin ETFs will usher in a Bitcoin bull market, but due to the Fed's high interest rate environment and the continuous harvesting by VC institutions, the altcoin sector without new ecological narratives will continue to decline.
From past cycles, the birth and continuation of a bull market require two conditions: ecological narratives and US monetary easing policies. Both are currently lacking, which has led to the current differentiated market.
Short-term investors have seen their market value drop from $443 billion to $282 billion, which is one of the most important factors for the market's short-term weakness.
The Bitcoin halving in 2024 and the US approval of Bitcoin ETFs will usher in a Bitcoin bull market, but due to the Fed's high interest rate environment and the continuous harvesting by VC institutions, the altcoin sector without new ecological narratives will continue to decline.
From past cycles, the birth and continuation of a bull market require two conditions: ecological narratives and US monetary easing policies. Both are currently lacking, which has led to the current differentiated market.
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Trump and Musk are creating a limited crisis, and the opportunity to buy at the bottom is getting closer!
On March 10, 2025, the Nasdaq plummeted nearly 5%, with tech stocks experiencing their largest single-day drop since 2022. Bitcoin dropped to a low of 76,000, resulting in over 300,000 liquidations! The total liquidation amount was 955 million.
Looking back at my recent articles over the past ten days, I have been bearish on Bitcoin, targeting the 70,000-75,000 range! And today, that target is about to be reached!
The above views have been urging the VIP group to liquidate since the end of February! Liquidate! Liquidate!
Now that we are getting closer to the target position, I need to start picking up chips! This wave of trend escape top picking, those who want to bottom out strategy are welcome to join VIP, getting ahead of the big bulls is the time for profit!
Looking back at my recent articles over the past ten days, I have been bearish on Bitcoin, targeting the 70,000-75,000 range! And today, that target is about to be reached!
The above views have been urging the VIP group to liquidate since the end of February! Liquidate! Liquidate!
Now that we are getting closer to the target position, I need to start picking up chips! This wave of trend escape top picking, those who want to bottom out strategy are welcome to join VIP, getting ahead of the big bulls is the time for profit!
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Since February 26, I have been bearish, seeing 70k-75k until now. Every rebound has only been to offload. I have long seen through Trump's business mentality.
This morning, Bitcoin has once again experienced a massive drop, currently at 7.7k, just a needle's distance from the target. I need to start picking up chips now #加密市场回调 #美股大跌
This morning, Bitcoin has once again experienced a massive drop, currently at 7.7k, just a needle's distance from the target. I need to start picking up chips now #加密市场回调 #美股大跌
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The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a bubble cleanup! Is it a bull or bear market now?
Regarding ETFs, last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net outflow of $799 million, while Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $119 million.
Is it a bull or a bear market right now? Where is the bottom? When can we bottom out?
I think this is something many people want to know. The weekend was relatively calm, but since yesterday afternoon, the price of Bitcoin has been continuously falling, breaking the 200-day moving average again, with the lowest point dipping to the $80,000 mark. Ethereum also briefly fell below $2,000 again.
First, let me say a side note: In the past couple of days, everyone has probably seen news about market makers' methods of exploiting retail investors being exposed, and it even got a retweet from Binance founder CZ.
Is it a bull or a bear market right now? Where is the bottom? When can we bottom out?
I think this is something many people want to know. The weekend was relatively calm, but since yesterday afternoon, the price of Bitcoin has been continuously falling, breaking the 200-day moving average again, with the lowest point dipping to the $80,000 mark. Ethereum also briefly fell below $2,000 again.
First, let me say a side note: In the past couple of days, everyone has probably seen news about market makers' methods of exploiting retail investors being exposed, and it even got a retweet from Binance founder CZ.
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Market Direction After Crypto Summit, The Life-and-Death Tug-of-War at Bitcoin 91500!
To summarize, several points of interest from last night.
First, the non-farm payrolls:
In February, the U.S. adjusted non-farm employment population was 151,000, with an expectation of 160,000. The previous value was revised from 143,000 to 125,000, slightly below expectations. It's beneficial, but Wall Street does not interpret this data too optimistically, as the U.S. stock market needs a boost. As a result, the data did not meet expectations, and the U.S. stock market's gains fell back before last night's trading.
Secondly, Powell's speech:
In his speech, he mentioned that the U.S. economy does not currently require the Federal Reserve to take any action, indicating that the Fed does not believe there are signs of an economic recession.
First, the non-farm payrolls:
In February, the U.S. adjusted non-farm employment population was 151,000, with an expectation of 160,000. The previous value was revised from 143,000 to 125,000, slightly below expectations. It's beneficial, but Wall Street does not interpret this data too optimistically, as the U.S. stock market needs a boost. As a result, the data did not meet expectations, and the U.S. stock market's gains fell back before last night's trading.
Secondly, Powell's speech:
In his speech, he mentioned that the U.S. economy does not currently require the Federal Reserve to take any action, indicating that the Fed does not believe there are signs of an economic recession.
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Will the White House's first cryptocurrency summit intensify market fluctuations? When will this deceptive market phase pass?
In terms of the market, Bitcoin is fluctuating. In the short term, it has tested support, and currently, there is still strong demand above 80k. With the price of coins declining and adjusting, there will be ongoing buying pressure. In terms of structure, the support below needs to be tested further. Testing a few more bottoms will be beneficial for future rebounds. Currently, it is in a range-bound fluctuation.
Everyone remember, there is no market that continuously declines, nor one that continuously rises. As for the previous viewpoint of needing to retest the last bull market's starting line around 75k, that still stands, but it's not something that will happen in the next couple of days. Let's leave it to time to verify. Please view it accurately and rationally.
Everyone remember, there is no market that continuously declines, nor one that continuously rises. As for the previous viewpoint of needing to retest the last bull market's starting line around 75k, that still stands, but it's not something that will happen in the next couple of days. Let's leave it to time to verify. Please view it accurately and rationally.
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China held a closed-door meeting to discuss the establishment of a national Bitcoin reserve
Is it true?
Is it true?
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Tried the cool contract gameplay, really thrilling, my heart can't take it
50 times 9 layers of margin chasing shorts, watching the 1-minute line for a second to close the order, this technique I can handle at most for 20 seconds
Everyone really shouldn't learn this kind of gameplay, it's unbearable for most people, I have to say that Cool Xi is truly a trading genius #美国加征关税
50 times 9 layers of margin chasing shorts, watching the 1-minute line for a second to close the order, this technique I can handle at most for 20 seconds
Everyone really shouldn't learn this kind of gameplay, it's unbearable for most people, I have to say that Cool Xi is truly a trading genius #美国加征关税
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Give everyone a boost, we have gone through the rain together, understanding the taste of it.
This wave of correction is more like the 519 of 21, a major correction in a bull market, not a bear market.
Once this adjustment is complete, the entire market will fluctuate for a while, and then go up. For Bitcoin, we can at least see 150k+ #美国加征关税 #比特币价格走势分析
This wave of correction is more like the 519 of 21, a major correction in a bull market, not a bear market.
Once this adjustment is complete, the entire market will fluctuate for a while, and then go up. For Bitcoin, we can at least see 150k+ #美国加征关税 #比特币价格走势分析
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The collapse is rolling and I'm so scared,
The drop is making me fall apart!
All in, Auntie, I'm laughing haha,
Defying the heavens to change my fate, I'm blowing my horn!
Tick tock, tick tock, tick tick tock,
I want to go home and find mom!
The drop is making me fall apart!
All in, Auntie, I'm laughing haha,
Defying the heavens to change my fate, I'm blowing my horn!
Tick tock, tick tock, tick tick tock,
I want to go home and find mom!
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